The International Crisis Group (ICG), 3 May 2007
Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah's Current Status
Jakarta/Brussels, 3 May 2007: Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), South East Asia's largest jihadi
organisation, probably retains more than 900 members across Indonesia at a
conservative estimate and remains a major security threat, focused more on local
than Western targets.
Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah's Current Status,* the latest Crisis Group briefing,
examines the significance of police arrests in late March of JI members said to be
involved in a new military structure and analyses the organisation's size and strength.
The briefing suggests that those arrested may have formed part of a special forces
unit, the most recent of several unsuccessful efforts since 2002 to bring one into
being. But there is no indication that they were plotting "Bali III" or any attack aimed
at causing widespread deaths of foreign civilians. To the extent JI remains focused on
its long-term goal of establishing an Islamic state in Indonesia, operations are only
useful if they serve to increase recruitment or expand the mass base. The bombings
carried out by JI renegade Noordin Mohammed Top against hotels, restaurants and
the Australian embassy between 2003 and 2005 hurt more than helped, especially
because of the many Muslim casualties. Targeted assassinations of police,
prosecutors, and others may be both more cost-effective and more in line with
organisational objectives.
"JI is in a building and consolidation phase, which means that it is unlikely to be
interested in large, expensive operations that could further weaken its support base",
said Sidney Jones, South East Asia Project Director. "Noordin's attempt to bomb the
Australian embassy cost about $8,000; JI's assassination of the head of the Central
Sulawesi Protestant Church cost $25".
The briefing looks at JI's geographic reach and membership, based on a careful
reading of documentary evidence. Its strength remains rooted in a territorial command
structure that extends from northern Sumatra to islands east of Bali with a five- or
six-member religious study circle as the basic building block. Central and East Java
continue to be the JI heartland but Sumatra and Sulawesi deserve more attention.
Factors that may determine the strength of JI in different areas are the existence of
JI-linked boarding schools; the history of the Darul Islam insurgency in the area; the
extent of family and business ties among members; the success of campus-based
recruitment; and the degree to which recruiting takes place in prison.
"The Indonesian police get high marks for their work in identifying and detaining JI
members responsible for violence", says Robert Templer, Asia Program Director.
"Now the Indonesian government needs to pay much more attention to prisons,
including what goes on inside, visitors and the materials they bring, and pre- and
post-release programs".
Click here to view the full report as a PDF file in A4 format
Contacts: Nadim Hasbani (Bruxelles) 32 (0) 2 536 00 71
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) 1 202 785 1601
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*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
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