The International Crisis Group (ICG), 22 March 2007
Indonesia: How GAM Won in Aceh
Jakarta/Brussels, 22 March 2007: Candidates from the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)
defied all predictions and won local elections largely because of effective grassroots
structures, appeals to Acehnese identity, and a focus on poor and marginal areas.
Indonesia: How GAM Won in Aceh,* the latest in a series of briefings on Aceh from
the International Crisis Group, examines the factors that led to GAM's overwhelming
victory in the December 2006 elections. While conventional wisdom suggested the
former rebels might pick up two or three of the nineteen district races, the biggest
prize – the provincial governorship – seemed out of reach. But GAM did win, polling
more than double their closest competitors, and went on to take seven of the district
races, sometimes by extraordinary margins. In a run-off in early March 2007 in the
tsunami-hit district of West Aceh, the GAM slate racked up a remarkable 76.2 per
cent.
"The challenge now is to govern effectively and cleanly in the face of high expectations
and serious obstacles", says Sidney Jones, Crisis Group's South East Asia Project
Director. Possible problems include obstructionism from the old elite, GAM members'
own sense of entitlement, and the sheer enormity of the task in post-conflict,
post-tsunami Aceh.
Crisis Group interviews with the major players involved in the campaign suggests that
one of the most important factors in the outcome was GAM's ability to mobilise
thousands of election workers through the Aceh Transition Committee (Komite
Peralihan Aceh, KPA), its old military command structure. KPA members played a
major role in choosing the candidates, enlisting the support of village heads, and
recruiting door-to-door campaigners.
With most of the newly elected officials now installed, four key questions are: how
well GAM will govern; how it will use political office to build a new political party to
contest parliamentary elections in 2009; how well it will be able to control its own
members; and how it will manage the issue of self-government. The new officials and
the government in Jakarta need to show the Acehnese that post-conflict autonomy is
different and better than what they had before.
"If the new officials can deliver", says Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program
Director, "the peace agreement ending the conflict in Aceh could move from being a
minor miracle to a major one".
Click here to view the full report as a PDF file in A4 format
Contacts: Nadim Hasbani (Bruxelles) 32 (0) 2 536 00 71
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) 1 202 785 1601
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*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
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