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2.1.2002 excellent article by pimco's bond guru bill gross on what alan greenspan should do to return the economy to health...complete with the smart bond investor's best trade until mr. greenspan gets the message!

12.4.2001 gasco energy is an oil & gas company whose natural gas properties could potentially begin producing in the billion-dollar range, but is still trading under $3 per share. recently, gasco's (OTCBB: GASE) properties and future revenues in utah were independently evaluated in a report that states that the estimated unrisked future net revenue on GASE's interest will most likely produce $2.42 billion. note that the report discusses net revenues, which are calculated by deducting state production and ad valorem taxes, operating expenses and ALL future capital costs from the gross revenues. while these are net revenues, as opposed to net income, this can mean great news for GASE's existing and future shareholders. in evaluating probabilities of occurrence, the report states "there is very little risk of not encountering gas in this basin-centered gas accumulation". in fact according to NSAI, the property's most likely present worth is $242 million discounted at 10% based on average NYMEX prices for the period 09/00 to 08/02. Wellhead prices used in the report are $3.56 per MMBtu, escalated 3% per year to a maximum of $4.15 per MMBtu. based on GASE's recoverable resources, property's present worth and industry partnerships London based Canaccord Capital recently issued an Investment report estimating the value of Gasco's licenses to be $740 Million, or $14.80 per share. despite all the recent developments, the company's stock is still trading below $3.

10.29.2001 the world will never be the same after last month's devastating attacks, and actually putting fresh money on the table at this point is a bit dicey. however, if one MUST deploy right now, stick with the safe bets: one that stands out is Pitt-Des Moines PDM. PDM is a diversified engineering and construction company that also processes and distributes a wide range of carbon steel products. Boring, yes. But one can't yawn too much at the fact that it is priced at a 30% FCF discount to similar capital goods companies!

9.5.2001 when TB has a chance to own a monopoly, it pricks its ears up and takes a look. in the case of atlantic tele-network ANK, the story becomes even more interesting when that monopoly is selling at a cut-rate price: EV/EBITDA<4 and price/free cashflow<14 with over 20X interest coverage. additionally, the $15 stock comes complete with over $2/share in cash. ANK owns 80% of guyana telephone & telegraph (GT&T), the monopoly telecom provider in guyana. GT&T offers local, long-distance, international calling, and cellular service. ANK also owns an assortment of internet and wireless providers in the caribbean region, but the main play here is those government-monopoly sponsored guyanese cashflows. an interesting play at these levels.

8.17.2001 fresh off of the bust up of the tech boom, now we may have an overly rich housing market to contend with. if so, look for housing related shares to drop faster than subscriptions to the gilder report. then, after the bust-born dust has settled, let's start picking through the carcasses for hidden gems of value.

8.1.2001 fund manager andrew jones was mentioned in this week's barron's as liking ventas VTR, a stock TB has been eyeing ever since major tenant kindred healthcare came out of bankruptcy with a sounder structure and a new balance sheet, where their coverages are good and their ability to make the lease payments are good. under the terms between the operator and the REIT, there are rent escalators built in that guarantee ventas cash flow growth of nine to 10 cents a share on a base of about $1.10 a share in cash flow, this year. thus, VTR will have growth in cash flow merely from the terms of the contracts in place. they also have opportunity to improve their cash flow from getting their own cost of debt down (current average cost of their debt is 10.2%)..if they lower the interest rates by 100 basis points it creates 12 cents extra in FFO for VTR.

company guidance is for FFO of $1.10 a share this year. the fund manager expects $1.30 a year in 2002 and $1.40 in 2003. In addition, as part of the bankruptcy reorganization, they own almost 10% of the equity of kindred. kindred is trading on the BB but it has an implied market value of $675 million - that equates to about $1 per share of ventas. so you are looking at a company with $1 in assets that the fund manager) expects to pay out to shareholders in a dividend by yearend. If you have a 12 month time horizon, the fund manager expects ventas will trade at 10 times cash flow or $13 per share. you also will get 88 cents in dividends that the company will pay out of the next year. add all of this together and you get to $15 per share of value which is a 35% upside from the current price. the risk level is low because the contracts are set, the leases are set, the terms are all set. any variance in the results are much more likely to be on the upside than the downside for both companies.

7.26.2001 "The wild part is that national health investors NHC is still undervalued. NHC has 11 million shares, at $20 per share, that's $220 million but minus the $40 million it has in cash and securities and you get an adjusted price of a little over $16 so the company has roughly $4 per share in cash. Given the Medicare and Medicaid increases this year, I think NHC will make $1.25 to $1.50 per year. Even if you take the low end at a $1.25 per share, you're still talking about a PE of 12.8. Manor Care is selling at a PE of 47 right now and Beverly has no PE because they are losing money, but if you take their 2001 projections of 40 cents per share, they are selling at a future PE of 25. Given the above numbers, NHC is dirt cheap, and don't forget, Manor Care has a huge lawsuit in California hanging over its head. In addition, given the fact that NHC is expanding and has a smaller market cap to begin with, it's conceivable that NHC could achieve a 15 to 20% growth rate. That's hard to imangine for either BEV or HCR because they are so much larger. NHC is still a great buy. I really think $25 is the right value for NHC, but I think we'll see momentum buying push the stock to $30 per share." TB right likes that summary of the prospects of this company.