9/21/00- Updated 03:16 PM ET

Where will teen tastes land next?

By Edna Gundersen, USA TODAY

Generation Y, that rising tide of moneyed
minors poised to wrest pop culture from
baby boomers, is in the throes of puppy love.
Since the rise of the Spice Girls in 1997, kids
have cast their adoring ears and ample
allowances toward the bouncy sounds of 'N
Sync, Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera and
the Backstreet Boys.

But Cupid's arrow is fated to point elsewhere
once these youngsters reach puberty.

"It always seems to be a two- or three-year
cycle," says Kim Cooper, editor of fanzine
Scram and co-editor of Bubblegum Music Is the Naked Truth, a book due
in early spring.

"Bubblegum may be more calculated than ever with this factory in Orlando,"
she says, referring to Florida Svengali Louis Pearlman, who shaped
Backstreet, 'N Sync and up-and-coming O-Town. "And there are more people
grooming artists and feeding off them. But fans of this music are going to
get into harder stuff once they get angrier and the hormones get going."

For now, bubblegum reigns as never before.
Don't ask why. Ask Y. Today's chart feats
and flops are dictated by the offspring of
the post-World War II baby boom. 'N Sync
holds the record for opening-week album
sales: 2.41 million, almost doubling the
record of 1.1 million set by the Backstreet
Boys (who could reclaim the honor with a
third album due Nov. 21).

Gen Y's leading edge, already teens,
accounts for the rise of such rap and rock
acts as Eminem, Limp Bizkit and Kid Rock.
The lagging edge, 12 and under, slurps up
the syrupy hits of boy bands and pop tarts.
Together they wield unprecedented influence
on the marketplace.

"There's never been more attention paid to a
specific generation," says Dave Adelson,
executive editor of Hits. "This generation
has a voracious appetite, and the record
companies are happy to satiate it. Kids are
being bombarded with more and more types of media designed for their
demographic, with some marketing plans targeting 5-year-olds."

Pipsqueak pop became ubiquitous with the explosion of kiddie media.
Boomers relied on radio, Gen Xers got the added visuals of MTV, and Gen Y
has it all - a vast Internet supply of fan Web sites and downloadable
songs, Radio Disney (in 45 cities and at disney.go.com/radiodisney), and
music fare on Nickelodeon, Fox Family, Disney, pay-per-view and cable.

While demographers debate cut-off dates, most calculations place Gen Y,
those born from 1979 to 1995, at 79 million, or about 27% of the U.S.
population. By 2010, the 12-to-19 age bracket will expand to a historic
peak of 35 million. Baby boomers number 77 million (and shrinking), and
puny Generation X, born between 1965 and 1978, weighs in at an estimated
40 million, or 16%.

The Y bumper crop, also called echo boomers and millennials, outspends all
previous generations. Market research says they're tech-savvy, coddled,
optimistic, prone to abrupt shifts in tastes and tough to pigeonhole.

Boomers embroiled in civil rights battles, anti-war protests and sexual
liberation launched a rock revolution in the '60s. Gen X, mired in a
depressed economy, turned to angry, brooding grunge. Gen Y, marinating in
financial fitness, fancies peppy pop.

The prevalence of kiddie ditties is no surprise, considering "we have
peacetime, a boom economy and no functioning counterculture," notes Alan
Light, editor in chief of Spin. "But all these 14-year-olds won't be 14
forever. When the bubble is parked at 17 or 18, what they'll need from
music will be very different."

Talkin' about Y g-g-generation

"As they go to college and work and fight with their parents and stay out
too late, I expect a rise of rock 'n' roll again," Light says. "It's sort of
inevitable that the emotion and complexity and torment that drives a lot of
rock will be back in vogue."

Light predicts an evolution of the rap-infused sound forged by Korn and
Limp Bizkit. "This is the first full generation of kids who've grown up with
hip-hop as part of the everyday landscape, so I think hip-hop and rock will
continue to intermingle in much more complicated and sophisticated ways."

Because the music industry continues to grow and splinter into subgenres,
it's doubtful that omni-genre icons, such as Madonna, Bruce Springsteen or
Michael Jackson, will hold sway over Gen Y. Nor will today's teens adopt idols
of the twentysomething set.

"Generation X has been kicked to the curb," Light says. "They look like
chumps."

And their overshadowed rock heroes aren't delighting in teen-pop's rise.

"A lot of real young people out there are being spoon-fed garbage," says
Richard Patrick, leader of aggro-rock band Filter. "Thank God that Korn and
Rage Against the Machine are still kicking. I don't trust anyone who doesn't
write their own songs. I think kids will want something real next, someone
who writes, produces and sings. When we make music, it's our baby. That's
what's missing in this corporate teen stuff. They take some kid from the
Mickey Mouse Show, teach her to dance a little, add a little hip-hop beat
and have a hit. By the time she's 25, she's going straight downhill freaked
out on too much Xanax. Excuse me, is this music? No. It's pretty, but it's
tinfoil, not platinum. It has no substance."

Pearl Jam singer Eddie Vedder is confident kids will seek better music. "I
was 7, living outside Chicago, when I got turned on to the Jackson 5. That
was strong soulful stuff, so my early pop experience was pretty high
quality. But you definitely move on. By the time you're in junior high, you're
into metal. And you explore. We encouraged our fans to listen to Sonic
Youth. And Nirvana turned people on to The Melvins."

Music consultant Tom Vickers speculates that "just as the teen idols of the
late '50s were displaced by The Beatles, inevitably today's teen idols will be
displaced by what appears to be this hybrid of rock and hip-hop.

"Because they are 'safe,' a number of the teen acts are pleasing both the
baby boomers and their children," he says. "But the riskier, edgier acts will
have a lot more appeal to this younger demo once they hit their teens. And
Eminem is only the tip of the iceberg."

The industry may be caught offguard if it persists in breeding Britney
clones. Says Vickers, "The shelf life of teen pop may be longer because of
the sheer number of consumers, but the teen phenomenon that labels are
chasing right now will be over by the time the next wave of these groups
hits the public's ear."

Pete Howard, publisher of ICE monthly CD newsletter, agrees. "I don't
think any label has a battle plan to adjust to Generation Y," he says. "And
the music marketplace is so fragmented, it's impossible to predict which
direction these fans will go as they mature. Some could get into jazz or
classical. Once they're in college, it's not hard to picture them turning to
sophisticated singer/songwriters."

Gen Y's current teen-pop craving is no indication of future preferences
because "the trend is based not on music but on sex appeal, good times and
having fun," he says. "History shows us that fans don't go from one fresh
hot trend to another. The disco crowd of the late '70s didn't graduate to
U2 and The Pretenders. They were already mature clubgoers who probably
settled into mainstream pop. Having virgin inductees is the very definition
of a hot new trend."

Though preteens are near-unanimous in their zeal for bubblegum stars,
they "won't continue to buy en masse," predicts Adelson. "You can't draw
the conclusion that their tastes are tainted by chasing Britney around. The
generation that bought Archies records is into fairly sophisticated music
as adults."

Gene Sculatti, Billboard's director of special issues, likewise cautions
against generalizations. "I have some sense that teens are much more
catholic in what they listen to than I used to be. Punk and metal were once
on opposite sides of the table. They merged long ago. You may see more of
that."

And while labels attempt to shape trends by assailing kids via endless
promotion avenues, peer pressure remains a paramount force, Sculatti
says. "I'm sure in elementary schools, there are semi-avatar kids saying,
'Oh, you still listen to 'N Sync? Well, my brother has this Eminem record.'
Every kid travels that channel."

As genre boundaries blur, kids could embrace diverse artists, says Johnny
Wright, manager of 'N Sync and co-manager of Spears.

"On MTV, you have an 'N Sync video next to Metallica. In the past, you had
to pick a side - be a rocker or a popper. Now you can be both."

Anticipating a backlash to computerized music, Wright is grooming Gotti
XIII, "a group of real musicians playing real instruments."

Smart move, says Kathy Keeley, music editor of Generation Y Web site
katrillion.com. She's detecting subtle shifts in taste as preteens notice the
music favored by older siblings and schoolmates. Children are discovering
music earlier than ever, and even if their inaugural choices are frivolous,
"the 'N Syncs and Britneys are good for getting them into music, out to
concerts and into record stores," Keeley says.

"Young kids love the glamour and choreography of teen acts, but after a
while, they want something more, maybe bands that play their own
instruments," she says. "Older teens are into Papa Roach, The Deftones,
Incubus. As younger fans are influenced by peers, their tastes may evolve
in that direction."

Dance music may be the logical next step, says Steve Greenberg, president
of S-Curve, home of pop-rap sensation the Baha Men.

"Music that Generation Y listens to at the moment tends to be rhythmically
driven and more rooted in hip-hop than rock," he says. "My guess is that as
they get older and start to date and go out at night with friends, dance
music will become relevant. Right now, they don't really have a night life. As
kids get exposed to clubs and DJs, we could see less bubblegum and more
sophisticated rhythms getting on radio after being exposed in clubs."

Young fans aren't necessarily drawn to diverse sounds, "but they are far
more colorblind than previous generations and more likely to relate to
artists of a different race than their own," he says. "In the '70s, The
Osmonds were dreamed up as a white equivalent of the Jackson 5 so that
white girls could have teen idols. I don't think that's necessary today."

Who'll stop the reign?

Are today's teen stars doomed to an early retirement? The Beatles and
Frank Sinatra beat the curse that sends most pop idols to history's
dumpster. A majority vanish.

"There's no future," Cooper says of pop's kid stuff, pointing to waning
interest in still-young Hanson and the Spice Girls. "They have no legitimacy.
They try, but it's hopeless."

Not necessarily, says Greenberg. "If they grow with their audience, there's
no reason to believe current teen acts need to fade away. Michael Jackson
is the best example. He was a kid act who grew up and reached his peak in
adulthood. One mistake a lot of these acts make is trying artistically to
outpace their audience. You have to put on the brakes. The next
Backstreet Boys album should be more mature but not too mature. If
you're trading strictly on a pin-up, then you'll clearly fade. If you have
talent and continue to connect with the audience, you can stick around."

Greenberg, a former Mercury talent scout who discovered Hanson, says the
trio stumbled in leaping too far from 1997 hit MMMBop to current album
This Time Around, a commercial disappointment.

"They made a record aimed at adults," he says. "It would have been
inappropriate to make another kid record, but they could have related
better to their fans if the music reflected teenage sensibilities. The irony
is records that best reflect teen sensibilities tend to have a strong adult
behind them."

Nonetheless, Greenberg counsels against Hanson's premature burial.
"Taylor Hanson is one of most talented vocalists on the planet and will
continue to make vital music and have big hits."

Wright also sees rosy prospects for his clients. "Britney and 'N Sync have
proven they're not one-album sensations. A key factor is growth. Britney's
showing a little edge and more grown-up themes. On the third album, we'll
step it up a bit. In the past, you saw an act develop an audience based on a
specific sound and image, and on the next album they do a 360 to try to
expand their audience. The audience they have feels alienated. Our main
focus is to never forget who our true fans are. With that loyal core, we
could be around forever."

Light concurs that Spears could prove durable. "Britney has a smart team
around her, and they're going to figure out a way to develop a career
there," he says. "We'll see who's able to transform and adjust their image
and sound to grow with the audience. Solo artists have a better shot. It's
harder for a group to keep a unified vision."

Survivors, he stresses, are rare. "Popular art of any form has a hard time
transforming itself enough to remain relevant and current."

Sculatti agrees that change is crucial. "There's only one place for these
acts to go next. They're nice and cute, and then fairly quickly they have to
be a little rough. We're already seeing incremental changes in Britney, who's
looking a little hookerish now. Ultimately, they need a content move. They
have to drop science, talk about something, so people can see it's not so
squeaky clean. If it works, they get to live as young adults. But the road is
littered with people who stumble at that point."

Mad rapper Eminem can carp all he likes, but teen-pop isn't going away
soon. And no matter how often that gooey wad is ground under the foot of
a hipper trend, bubblegum rebounds and recycles.

"Bubblegum continues to be this derisive term, even though it makes a lot
of money," Cooper says. "Before this resurgence, there was a long dead
patch. Maybe the reaction against it was so strong that it took this long
for people to get the courage to bring it back. Whether you like the music
or not, it has a legitimate audience. Kids have a right to hear music they
dig."

Wright doubts that teen pop will hold fast to tradition and wither. "Even if
mainstream radio and video channels decide not to play these artists, there
are too many other avenues of promotion," he says. "Even Sesame Street
has a musical element now."

Bubblegum simply reflects the spirit of the times, Sculatti says.

"I have great respect for pop in any form," he says. "Herman's Hermits is
perfectly fine. These groups often emerge because the industry notices an
audience being under-served. The problem is, because they entered through
that door, those acts could never go anywhere else."