About Friendly Comments.
Sector of Space Magnetoplasmadynamics (SSM) of IZMIRAN
would like to test and improve our ability to forecast geomagnetic
storms according to the
half daily Ap so as to suit the scale:
Quiet Active
Minor Moderate Severe
Major
0-7 8-19
20-29 30-49
50-74 >75nT
Half daily success (failure) will be prized as plus (minus) 0.5
As a reference we take daily Space Environment Center (SEC) forecast.
Addition 1. Since September we deliver forecast
of the following eight states of geomagnetic field conditions (St. means
Geomagnetic Storm).
| State |
Quiet,Q |
Disturbed,D |
Weak St.,W |
Minor St.,MI |
Moderate St.,MO |
Severe St.,S |
Major St.,MA |
Extreme St.,E |
| Ap |
0-7 |
8-14 |
15-19 |
20-29 |
30-49 |
50-74 |
75-100 |
>100 |
Addition 2. Since September 16 we shall show the following
scores of g/m forecasts:
a. Storm ( Ap > 20 nT ) forecast.
b. Storm ( Ap > 15 nt ) forecast.
c. Eight states forecast (Add. 1)
d. Eight intervals forecast, forecast of a g/m state of each of eight
3 hour intervals during a day. In this score every correctly predicted
3 hour interval will be prized by 1.
COMMENTS
TESTS
Addition 3. Since Oct.1 the 8 states and 8 intervals will be evaluated
according to the last day forecasts.
Addition 4. Since October 1999 SSM will prized forecasts according to
the following two estimations:
a. Ability to predict geomagnetic storms (Ap), see About Friendly Comments;
b. Ability to predict eight geomagnetic states, see Add. 1.
