While it will take the military years to recover from the damage Bush has inflicted on it, I don't think the Guard will survive.
The deal with the Guard was part time benefits for part time service. Service for national emergencies was expected, but what is our national emergency? That we have an incompetent president. Our regular Army is voting with its feet. The American citizen-soldier has decided and is leaving in droves. They only re-enlist at all because if they don't, they go into the reserves, where they will be shipped to Iraq anyway, just with a unit of strangers. Despite this, there would not be a continuing US presence in Iraq without the betrayal of the Guard.
Right now, about 40% of the deployed troops are Guards/reserves. By year's end, a greater percentage of Guards will be combat vets than the regular Army, since they are mainly combat arms units without the logistical tail.
Deployment is particularly severe on the Guard. If you are a small businessperson, deployment can bring bankruptcy. If you are a college student, it demolishes your life. Many more of the Guard are married with kids and many are 30+.
As an example. My son is newlywed, recently out of college and his life is on hold while he waits for his deployment (August 10). By the time he returns (God willing), he will be 2+ years out of college with no work experience except leading a platoon.
If the Regular Army has the recruiting flu, the Guard has lung cancer. To deploy a battalion of three companies, the Guard has to activate five companies, often of mixed training (engineer, cav, infantry). The officers are often mixed too. My son will be deployed as a LT2 to lead men he will meet for the first time 50 days before landing in country. This eliminates the strength of the Guard, that it is a locally based unit.
There have been many reports of Guard units getting second class equipment, quick training before deployment, being used for missions they were not trained for at all (MPs as prison guards sound familiar?). The only recruits they are getting now are those who join to avoid serving in the reserves. If you are going to be sent to Iraq anyway, better to go with a local Guards unit than be thrown in a batch of reserves.
The Army is surviving by eating its children. NCOs will leave after being burned out. Soldiers will be recycled through the Reserves and Guard, hiding the hollowing out of the military. At some point, Bush will succeed in making our Army a paper tiger.
When this is over, as it will be soon enough, the Guard will not recover. A national institution that has survived since the 1770's will disappear. No amount of bonus money or false recruiter promises will lead mothers to let their sons enlist in Army/Reserves/Guard.
The writing is on the wall in one way. The only force to meet their recruiting goals is the Navy. Why is that? They don't get shot at. Duty is onerous, unpleasant and dangerous beyond any civilian job, but it is a lot safer than joining the Guard.
National Guard Dad - August 20, 2005