LAKSAMANA.Net, October 15, 2002 11:20 PM
Al Qaeda 'Splinter' Group Behind Bomb
October 15, 2002 11:20 PM, Editor
Laksamana.Net - The Bali bomb conspiracy most likely represents the work of a
splinter group loosely connected to both Indonesia's home-grown Jemaah Islamiyah
(JI) and the wider al Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden, say intelligence sources.
The sources say the emerging map of international terrorist conflict suggests a
number of major centers of the movement, with splinter cells emanating from them
and penetrating into virtually ever corner of the world with a significant Muslim
population.
They say the Islamic terrorist network has developed in the same way as the
Palestinian resistance, with the the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)
encompassing the mainstream while other far more radical groups emerged as the
active terrorist organization.
The Bali bomb, which many now believe to have been planted by a mixed group of
Indonesians and Muslims hailing from the Middle East, has irrevocably cemented
Indonesia on the map as one of the main focuses of the network.
The importance of the Indonesian network had already been apparent well before the
October 12 incident. The leading role of Indonesian operatives in cells in Singapore,
Malaysia and the Philippines is well established, hence the enormous frustration of
the US and its allies at the lack of action from the Indonesian government and figures
such as Vice President Hamzah Haz (who has finally accepted that there is a
problem).
Nevertheless, in the absence of any firm leads on those responsible, speculation has
continued in Indonesia that the bomb may have been the work of disgruntled elements
of the former high military command, with analysts pointing to the lack of any claim of
responsibility as an indication other forces were at work.
Others still, including JI leader Abu Bakar Baasyir, have leaped to point the finger of
guilt at foreign intelligence black propaganda determined to blacken the name of Islam
and to destroy Indonesia in the process.
A veteran analyst of international conflict from the days of the Lebanese civil war and
other terrorist battlefields, says the fact that no group has yet claimed responsibility
for the blast is not necessarily significant.
The analyst says there have been attacks on nationals of a number of US allies. "The
French have been targets, the Germans and of course the Americans themselves.
Now it is the Australians and British who have suffered.
"There is a persistent pattern in these attacks in which people from each of the major
countries opposed to terrorism has been targeted."
The Indonesian government only weeks ago finally admitted the presence of terrorist
elements in the country. If nothing else, the Bali bomb has galvanized the government
into action.
How far it can go in actually doing something remains open to question. Reports that
JI leader Baasyir was to be arrested brought threats of widespread suicide bombings
by his supporters. Asked where the supporters would get the materials for such
bombs, one ally retorted "it's easy to get explosives here."
Limits to action
While the Islamic hardline element in Indonesia remains a small fraction of the mainly
moderate majority, the prospect of suicide bombers and madmen wielding knives and
running amok in churches and shopping centers is not a healthy prospect.
The other deterrent to real government action is the limited ability of the military and
police to act, given the geographical scale of the problem. Riven with indiscipline, and
with many units tainted by involvement in intercommunal violence, the forces also lack
the hardware to move them swiftly from place to place in a nation that stretches as far
across as Russia.
In the wake of the now-well established evidence of a terrorist training camp in the
Poso area, the intelligence sources say at leat two more camps have been identified,
one in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) and one in Papua province.
The sources say it is highly likely that the Bali bomb was transported by sea from the
NTB base.
Laskar Jihad shuts up shop?
The Laskar Jihad, heavily implicated in terrorist activities in Maluku and Poso, where it
used heavy equipment to level Christian villages last year, and more recently active in
Papua, chose this moment to decide to disband its operations in Maluku and possibly
nationwide.
A first shipload of Laskar Jihad left Ambon Tuesday (15/10/01) and the organization
announced it had been ordered by Saudi Arabian cleric Sheikh Ruby bin Hadi to quit
Maluku because it had completed its task there.
Other reports suggested that the Central Java headquarters had been closed.
This raises two possibilities: either the Laskar Jihad has been de-commissioned by
the generals who created it in the near future, or the organization has gone
underground.
At worst, the exodus from Ambon raises the alarming prospect of at least 1,000
battle-hardened veterans being thrown into the fight in other areas of the country.
The government now finds itself wondering how to deal with the legacy of the
free-for-all that followed the collapse of the Suharto regime. Suharto's total disregard
for human rights presented no brake on the outright murder of Muslim fanatics, as
with the hundred or so members of the Warsidi sect in Lampung, stamped out by now
head of National Intelligence Hendropriyono.
Under the more human rights-conscious administrations that followed, Islamic
fundamentalist groups suddenly became free to organize more widely and proselytize
among the mass of unemployed Muslim youth.
Strong historical framework
The International Crisis Group's study of the Ngruki network (full text available at
www.crisisweb.org ) explains the development of this network from the late 1970s.
This movement itself was the spiritual offspring of the Darul Islam movement active in
West Java and Sulawesi in demanding an Islamic state as far back as the 1950s.
Persistent demands for the introduction of the seven-word Jakarta Charter into the
Indonesian Constitution – while perennially unsuccessful – suggest that the appeal of
more overtly Islamic state is widespread, if by no means the majority view.
"At its core, the argument underway in Indonesia today is whether the (orthodox)
Wahabi form of Islam should be the norm or whether Indonesian Muslims should be
allowed to continue their tolerate, syncretist and essentially secular view of life," says
a prominent figure in the Indonesian intelligence community.
Added to the problem is the fact that radical Islam became a useful commodity with
the so-called 'green' generals in the Indonesian military at the end of the Suharto era.
These included Prabowo Subianto, drummed out of the military for overstepping his
authority.
"This means that the question of whether al Qaeda exists in Indonesia and is
responsible for the Bali bomb is not what we shoud be asking," says the intelligence
figure.
"What we should be asking is, what elements of Indonesian society stood to benefit
from an alliance with al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamaiyah or other groups in committing this
atrocity."
Thus, al Qaeda and JI are not finite quantities. Networks overlap, often finding support
from circles that are seeking immediate political gain but are not allied in any
long-term sense with the two organizations.
The Bush View
President George W. Bush's conviction that the Bali bomb was caused by al Qaeda
is seen by many as far too simplistic. It is also a view that even many Americans are
beginning to see as obsessive and intolerant of alternative views.
Dr Ezzat Ahmed El-Shafii, a Cairo-based expert on Islamic terrorism, told Antara that
Bush's easy definition of al Qaeda is unlikely to win too many supporters within
Indonesia.
"It is not as easy as that to accuse the al Qaeda network as responsible for the Bali
bomb because there are so many internal problems in Indonesia," he said. "There are
so many groups involved in violence, including anti-government groups, that there are
other equally likely suspects."
"Al Qaeda has declared an open war against the governments of Pakistan and the
United States. Therefore, if there is a bomb in either of those two countries, it would
be fair to suspect al Qaeda, even if it was not responsible. Indonesia, up until now,
has not been a target."
"It would be best for Indonesia not to immediately jump to make a scapegoat of al
Qaeda over the Bali bomb," he said.
Small wonder that some in Indonesia prefer another theory: that the US planted the
bomb itself.
Reuters pointed to articles in the Muslim daily Republika that "underline a deep
undercurrent of anti-U.S. feeling in the country and help explain why authorities have
been so reluctant to crack down on radical Islamic groups."
The United States "aims to create an opinion that it was true that Indonesia is a
terrorist base and was a safe haven for these terrorists," the articles said.
Indonesians, noted one diplomat, "want to be encouraged to be in denial".
The road ahead for the US government and its allies in the war against terrorism,
whether or not al Qaeda or a related group was responsible for the bomb in Bali,
appears to remain no easy task.
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