1956 Q3 to 1970 Q3

p_t = 1.0177 + 0.46012p_t* - 6.2752x_1t + 6.1785x_1t-1 - 0.00019x_2t + 0.0000417x_2t-1 + 0.000236x_2t-2 + 0.00009x_2t-3 + 0.000349x_2t-4 + 0.51361x_3t - 0.44079x_3t-1 - 0.47381x_3t-2 + 0.53453x_3t-3 + 0.95067x_3t-4

RSS = 64.80238234 for 14 variables and 57 observations

1970 Q4 to 1982 Q2

p_t = 2.2808 + 0.87387p_t* + 4.5815x_1t + 3.6053x_1t-1 - 0.00016x_2t + 0.000412x_2t-1 - 0.000186x_2t-2 + 0.000143x_2t-3 + 0.000126x_2t-4 + 0.72987x_3t - 0.67389x_3t-1 - 1.7056x_3t-2 - 0.048067x_3t-3 + 0.66987x_3t-4

RSS = 97.12136546 for 14 variables and 48 observations

Test for parameter consistency.

RSS = 221.4278415 (for regression using 1956 Q3 to 1982 Q2) n = 104 k=13 RSS₁ = 64.80238234 RSS₂ = 97.12136546

F = [221.43 - (64.80 + 97.12)]/ (64.80 + 97.12) x (104 - 26 - 2)/ 14

F = (221.43 - 1611.92)/161.92 x 76/14

F = 59.51/161.92 x 76/14

F = 1.995

F ~ F(14, 76) = 1.8

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