INGREDIENTS FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION
The unexpected happened again. The miraculous deal struck by the two main political parties this week raises much hope.The deal has further taken the wind of the LTTE sails that the South will never unite to find a solution
The unexpected happened again this week. Despite Eelam War IV breaking out, the parties have agreed to come to the negotiating table from October 28 - 29 without much fuss on the dates and venue, as we had seen previously
By Keith Noyahr
For a political solution to an intractable conflict, the first step is that the relevant parties must realise that a military solution was not possible.
The Peoples Alliance and the United National Front were convinced in 2000 (after military defeats at the hands of the Tigers and the attack on the Katunayake Airport) that a political solution was the only way out.
But, while President Kumaratunga could not take the plunge as the defeats were during her government’s tenure, she did one practical thing; invite foreign (Norwegian) facilitation.
The UNF, however, could seriously get down to talks as it was not humiliating as most people had forgotten the military reversals during previous UNP regimes.
With the benefit of hindsight, we could say the LTTE was not interested in a political solution.
Even though the Oslo Communiqué envisaged a federal solution, LTTE Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was certainly not willing. He showed his resentment to the Chief Negotiator Anton Balasingham who had been sidelined since then with a superior place given to S.P. Thamilselvan the head of the political wing.
You can’t blame Prabhakaran as he sincerely felt a military solution was possible though not in 2003 as the war on terror had been unleashed. He wanted to drag his feet till he could militarily take on the army.
The way he pulled out of talks in April 2003 on flimsy grounds and boycotted the June 2003 Tokyo Donor Conference saying it was a peace trap, it is clear that he had still entertained a military solution.
The boycott by Tamils (which he engineered) in Tiger-held areas during the November 2005 presidential polls was meant to defeat Ranil Wickremesinghe. He wanted a decisive war. He however wanted the new government to initiate it.
When Mahinda Percy Rajapaksa became the Executive President, many gave up hope of a possible political solution. Rajapaksa being dubbed a hardliner and a hawk, most people expected the country to get back to war.
But the unexpected happened. Despite the LTTE provocation, the government did not overreact. But an attack on the Army Commander (April 25) gave the government the licence to bomb LTTE targets causing the Tigers a huge set back.
While successive governments realised that a military solution was not possible, the LTTE still felt it was possible. Now, the LTTE has begun to realise that such a solution is not possible. Some sections in the South still feel a military solution was possible. The JVP is one such group.
But the two main political parties have realizsd that it is not possible to defeat the LTTE which is essentially a guerilla movement. They also know the thinking of the international community and particularly India that a political solution had to be found to the conflict.
But for the sake of political power, the party in the opposition, failed to support the government of the day in reaching a political solution.
The unexpected happened again. The miraculous deal struck by the two main political parties this week raises much hope. The deal has further taken the wind of the LTTE sails that the South will never unite to find a solution. The LTTE for years kept on telling the international community that the South was divided and therefore no political solution to the ethnic conflict could be achieved.
Everyone thought with President Rajapaksa beholden to nationalist parties like the JVP and the JHU for helping him secure the presidency, he would never be able join hands with the UNP. But that was not to be. Having refused to agree to the JVP demand of sending the Norwegians packing and abrogating the cease-fire agreement, (CFA) he kept talking with the JVP. Remember the hugs and kisses before he left for Havana and New York.
The JVP’s equating the SLFP to a ‘prostitute’ because talks were on between the two main parties, saw the end of a SLFP-JVP union.
The SLFP under Chandrika Kumaratunga also looked at the option of a national government but ended with a JVP-SLFP union that also split. But efforts by Ranil Wickremesinghe and Chandrika Kumaratunga to work together after the presidential polls should fall by the way side. Wickremesinghe was not so willing to work with Rajapaksa even though both gave it a try. The reason was that Rajapaksa while talking to Wickremesinghe stole his men under his nose.
It will be interesting to see the Rajapaksa-Jayasuirya relationship that has the sanction of Wickremesinghe in the light of the reforms within the Grand Old Party.
Even Jayasuriya’s son-in-law Naveen Dissanayake praised President Rajapksa’s brother Gotabhaya Rajapaksa Defence Secretary for his achievement. And Sajith Premadasa, the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa too heaped praises on President Rajapaksa this week saying a second was certainly his.
The unexpected happened again this week. Despite Eelam War IV breaking out, the parties have agreed to come to the negotiating table from October 28- 29 without much fuss on the dates and venue, as we had seen previously. But there are confusing signals again cropping up with different people (Government spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella and Peace Secretariat chief Dr. Palitha Kohonna saying different things).
Not only have we seen the longest truce, we are now possibly seeing the shortest war in two decades.
The coming week will be the most crucial that will decide whether the peace talks will resume with the new government or not.
The Norwegian Special Envoy Hanssen Bauer has left for New Delhi while the Co-Chairs will be meeting President Rajapaksa to finalise the next round of talks. Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar will head for Kilinochchi. The meetings in Colombo, New Delhi and Kilinochchi will determine whether the country will move forward or backwards.
The talks are and should be on substantive core issues as there was enough of confidence building talks during the UNF than concrete issues. The LTTE pulled out of talks before talks on core issues commenced. One need not re-invent the wheel all over again. The ideal is to pick up from where talks stopped.
Muslims must have a say given the concentration of this minority community in the East. The Muslim position is given in an article by M.H.M. Salman, who was a resource person during the UNF talks, in the opinion section of The Nation World.
With the UNP-SLFP axis and possible peace talks between the Government and the LTTE, the country is set for a serious round of talks. Never before had a government the backing of the chief Opposition to trash it out and hammer out a solution with the LTTE without looking over its shoulders. The right ingredients are in place and the country just hopes that this chance in a life time will not be missed.
On top of that you have the international players - the Co- chairs (US, Norway, Japan and EU (including Britain, Sri Lanka’s former colonial master under whose rule the ethnic conflict began to take shape, taking greater interest) overlooking the process.
India too has been pressed by all parties to play a role. Given the current coalition in Delhi including parties sympathetic towards the Tamils in Sri Lanka one could expect a reasonable solution to the ethnic conflict, if only India, which has leverage with all the stakeholders, plays a role.
The ingredients are there for a good soup or fruit cake, as you like it. But, we only hope the cooks will not spoil the soup or make a fruit salad in the end, depriving a nation starved of peace of the hope to pick up the pieces and begin life over again.
N, 9.10.2006