by Jehan Perera
During his first year in office, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has demonstrated a formidable capacity for getting the better of his adversaries and detractors alike. The LTTE, which challenged the President to battle by repeatedly ambushing government troops at the beginning of his presidency, is now receiving an unprecedented military battering at the hands of the government. The latest reports from the east are that the LTTE has once again suffered serious losses in the fighting taking place. Government troops are entering former strongholds of the LTTE in the east and more LTTE-controlled territory has passed into the hands of the government.
As a result, the President has becoming the towering figure of national politics. His erstwhile allies, the JVP, whose nationalistic support for the President’s election campaign gave him a major boost, are now at the receiving end of political retaliation. They seem to have over-reached themselves in putting pressure on the government to conform to their political programme. Now their own former Presidential candidate, Nandana Gunatilaka appears poised to join the President’s side after leaving the JVP, of which he had been a leading member for two decades.
But notwithstanding the President’s achievements, the situation on the ground continues to be violent, violative of human rights and volatile. While major military confrontations take place in the northeast, there are political killings, abductions and child recruitment taking place with impunity. Humanitarian access to the people affected by the violence continues to be restricted. The government’s decision to expel international humanitarian workers for allegedly engaging in anti national activities has sent shock waves through the international non-governmental network and can rebound on the government.
It is in this bleak context that two agreements that could potentially change the fate of the country were reached last week. The first was the agreement by the government and LTTE to meet in Europe for peace talks at the end of October. The second was the power sharing agreement reached between the ruling SLFP and the opposition UNP. The challenge will be to ensure that both of these agreements contribute towards lasting conflict resolution, rather than towards the temporary political advantage of one party or the other. President Rajapaksa, who has shown a great ability to achieve political victories is now faced with the challenge of conflict resolution in the best interests of all Sri Lankan people.
POLITICAL ADVANTAGE
A strategy of conflict resolution would have a plan of the sequence of actions and stages necessary to reach the final goal. It would normally also be one that recognizes and respects the interests of the other parties whose cooperation or acquiescence is necessary to achieve the desired goal. On the other hand, a strategy of temporary political advantage is one that seeks to work with others merely to get over a particular problem. But unless the gains of political advantage are linked to a strategy of conflict resolution, the gains made are likely to be temporary.
There is speculation that the SLFP-UNP agreement will help the government to surmount a major problem it will soon face. In November, the government will be presenting its budget proposals, which if defeated in Parliament would necessitate a fresh general election. Up until the past few weeks, the JVP’s support for the government in Parliament was there. But recent developments, in particular the JVP’s ultimatum regarding governmental conformity to its 20 point programme and the defection of its former presidential candidate, have called that support into question. The shortfall of JVP votes in Parliament to give the government a majority, could be countered by the addition of UNP votes in Parliament.
Through its agreement to talk peace to the LTTE with Norwegian facilitation, the government may be hoping to counter the increasingly poor image of Sri Lanka internationally. The nationalist rhetoric that accompanied the victory of President Rajapaksa at the Presidential election has been followed by the government’s military response to the LTTE, and to a humanitarian crisis for hundreds of thousands of civilians. Actions such as barring the representative of the International Commission of Jurists from formally attending the inquiry into the murder of 17 aid workers is doing serious damage to the government’s international reputation. Another self inflicted wound was the government decision to expel six humanitarian organizations, and ironically enough those engaged in medical work.
One international organization that was to be expelled was Medicine Sans Frontiers. MSF first assisted Sri Lanka during the JVP insurrection of 1988-89, when it sent in doctors and other medical personnel to conflict affected places like Moneragala. More recently MSF has been working in government controlled areas of Point Pedro, Vavuniya and Mannar. The withdrawal of MSF medical personnel from the government hospitals in these areas has been a big blow to humanitarian interests. Fortunately, the government has suspended its expulsion order on MSF, but some of the other humanitarian organizations will be closed down.
LASTING GAINS
Despite the negative features of the present situation, there is still reason to be hopeful. Both of the agreements made last week have the potential to be the building blocks of a strategy of conflict resolution. A decisive military victory has eluded the government and LTTE for the past twenty years. Strategies aimed at resolving the ethnic conflict by isolating the LTTE have also been tried and failed in the past. The agreement of the government and LTTE to talk again could be a pragmatic recognition of this past history and that military operations have to yield to political negotiations for a lasting solution to be found.
Likewise the agreement reached between the SLFP and UNP is a major achievement. It is to cooperate on a common national agenda incorporating a six point programme on the national question, electoral reform, good governance, economic development, national building and social development. This agreement, which also proposes a system of executive committees, could provide the basis for a new system of governance based on power sharing, rather than on unilateral decision making. Such a principle has applicability not only in the area of party politics, but also in ethnic relations.
The successful implementation of the SLFP-UNP agreement will be a groundbreaking one that can possibly forge a new political culture in Sri Lanka that accords with the country’s national ethos and needs. Since the country achieved independence in 1948, governance has been blighted by political rivalries in which decisions were either taken or opposed for partisan political reasons, and not because they were in the national interest. If the two main political parties can depart from the unfortunate past practice of failing to implement their good intentions, this agreement can be the foundation of a Sri Lankan model of governance.
Whatever the complex nature of their motivations, both the SLFP-UNP agreement to work together, and the government-LTTE agreement to meet in Europe provide opportunities for confidence building. A most positive feature of the SLFP-UNP agreement would be the availability of the former UNP government’s top negotiators, Prof. G.L. Peiris and Milinda Moragoda to assist in the negotiation process. Their experience in having negotiated with the LTTE in the past could be useful in rebuilding relations with the LTTE.
On the other hand, even if talks between the government and LTTE take place at the end of October, it would be too much to expect immediate gains in the direction of conflict resolution. But meeting and discussing problems around one table can create the foundation for problem solving in the future. The challenge for the parties to these agreements would be to transform what might be intended for political advantage into a longer term strategy for conflict resolution. In particular, a successful SLFP-UNP agreement will be the best foundation of a successful government-LTTE agreement.
EN, 30.10.2006