The Rankings
Everybody has a different idea of what it means to rank teams. Certainly, won-loss record must be a critical factor, or else why play the games. Strength of schedule (big wins and big losses), margin of victory, home and away record, are all factors. In ranking teams this week, I wanted to take a close look at each team's performance through the year to make sure I had teams appropriately ranked going into the final week of the regular season, the championships, and the bowls. So here is a list of all the teams with 0, 1 or 2 losses, who their quality wins came against, and to whom they lost. Quality wins are somewhat loosely defined as those coming against a favored opponent, or a team that has more often than not been ranked in the top 25.
|
Undefeated Teams | ||
| Team | Losses | Quality Wins |
| Michigan (11-0) | None | vs. Iowa, 28-24 vs. Ohio St., 20-14 at Michigan St., 23-7 at Penn St., 34-8 at Wisconsin, 26-16 |
| Nebraska (10-0) | None | at Washington, 27-14 vs. Kansas St., 56-26 |
| Teams With One Loss | ||
| Team | Loss | Quality Wins |
| Tennessee (9-1) | vs. Florida, 32-29 | at UCLA, 30-24 vs. Georgia, 38-13 vs. Southern Miss, 44-20 |
| Penn State (9-1) | vs. Michigan, 34-8 | vs. Ohio St., 31-27 vs. Wisconsin, 35-10 at Purdue, 42-17 |
| Washington State (10-1) | at Arizona St., 44-31 | vs. UCLA, 37-34 at Washington, 41-35 |
| Kansas State (10-1) | at Nebraska, 56-26 | vs. Ohio, 23-20 vs. Missouri, 41-11 vs. Texas A&M, 36-17 |
| Florida State (10-1) | at Florida, 32-29 | at North Carolina, 20-3 |
| North Carolina (10-1) | vs. Florida State, 20-3 | |
| Teams With Two Losses | ||
| Team | Losses | Quality Wins |
| Florida (9-2) | at LSU, 28-21 vs. Georgia, 37-17 (neutral site) |
vs. Tennessee, 33-20 at Auburn, 24-10 vs. Southern Miss, 21-6 vs. Florida St., 32-29 |
| Ohio State (10-2) | at Penn St., 31-27 at Michigan, 20-14 |
vs. Iowa, 23-7 at Michigan St., 37-13 |
| Georgia (8-2) | at Tennessee, 38-13 vs. Auburn, 45-34 |
vs. Florida, 37-17 (neutral site) vs. Mississippi St., 47-0 |
| Auburn (9-2) | vs. Florida, 24-10 vs. Mississippi St., 20-0 |
at Georgia, 45-34 at LSU, 31-28 |
| Arizona State (8-2) | at Washington, 26-14 vs. BYU, 13-10 |
vs. Washington St., 44-31 |
| UCLA (9-2) | at Washington St., 37-34 vs. Tennessee, 30-24 |
vs. Washington, 52-28 |
| Texas A&M (8-2) | at Kansas St., 36-17 at Texas Tech, 16-13 |
vs. Oklahoma St., 28-25 |
| Marshall (9-2) | at West Virginia, 42-31 at Miami of Ohio, 45-21 |
vs. Ohio, 27-0 |
| Toledo (9-2) | at Central Florida, 34-17 at Ball St., 35-3 |
vs. Purdue, 36-22 |
| Colorado State (9-2) | at Colorado, 31-21 vs. Air Force, 21-0 |
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| Air Force (10-2) | vs. Fresno St., 20-17 at San Jose St., 25-22 |
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| New Mexico (9-2) | vs. Rice, 25-23 at Utah, 15-10 |
-- |
| Louisiana Tech (9-2) | at Auburn, 49-13 at Arkansas, 17-13 |
-- |
One note on quality wins: some teams were a little screwed in this department, especially teams from the SEC and ACC. I went by what teams we have been ranking this year, which isn't entirely perfect. For example, Florida State's wins of moderate quality (Clemson, Virginia, Georgia Tech) may be worth more than Marshall's quality win over Ohio. Another factor this table doesn't show, but that some pollsters consider, is narrow victories, such as Nebraska's scare vs. Central Florida and Penn State's close call against Minnesota (and Auburn's recent good fortune to beat Alabama).
What this table shows is that Michigan has played a better schedule than Nebraska, and in my mind, deserves the top spot. The Wolverines have 5 quality wins, 3 of which came on the road, and 2 of which are of supreme quality (Ohio State and Penn State).
Of the one loss teams, three have 3 quality wins: Penn State, Tennessee, and Kansas State. Kansas State's three are rather dubious, especially Ohio and Missouri. Penn State and Tennessee's wins seem to be of similar quality, though Penn State's loss came against the current number 1, whereas the Vols lost to a team that is currently ranked lower than they are. Kansas State's loss was also against an undefeated team, but like Penn State's, it was a blow out. Washington State's quality wins range from marginally impressive (Washington) to very impressive (UCLA), and the loss, though it came to a team ranked lower, was a tough battle on the road. Finally, Florida State and North Carolina's pecking order is clear: FSU handled the Tar Heels at their place head to head. Both North Carolina and Florida State might have had more quality wins had the bar for quality been lowered just a bit, or if the middle of the ACC hadn't had so much parity. This must be weighed against the rather easy Big Twelve schedule of Kansas State.
The best of the two loss teams comes down to Florida or Ohio State, and it is a very difficult call. On one hand, Ohio State clearly has the more forgivable of the losses: on the road against Michigan, on the road against Penn State. And both were close games. Florida's loss to LSU was somewhat forgivable: on the road against a tough team in a close game. But LSU's recent loss to Notre Dame obscures the quality of that loss. The loss to Georgia would be more understandable if the neutral site were truly neutral, and if the margin hadn't been so large (20 points). On the other hand, who has Ohio State beaten? Their quality wins came against teams that may not be top 25 material after the bowls (Iowa and Michigan St.). Florida beat then top 2 team Florida State, and current top 3 team Tennessee (handily). The Gators also scored an impressive road win against Auburn, and a moderate quality win against Southern Miss.
After these top two, there is the muddled picture of two SEC teams, Georgia and Auburn. Auburn beat Georgia head to head, more decisively than the score indicates, in Athens. But Auburn was shut out by Mississippi State (20-0), a team that Georgia had for lunch (47-0). Likewise, Auburn played tough in a loss to Florida, whereas Georgia cruised to a 37-17 victory over the Gators. Next, we take up the UCLA question. Quite clearly, these guys are overrated. They just haven't beat anyone all that impressive. Their losses came against excellent teams, however, and like Ohio State, both were decided by less than one score. What has impressed pollsters about UCLA has been the margin of some of their wins (66-3 over Texas), and the winning streak (9 straight). I refuse to believe they are the best 2 loss team out there, but they do deserve a strong ranking. Both Arizona State and Texas A&M have quality wins and tough losses, but the edge must go here to Arizona State for the tougher games. The only other comment I want to make is that those of you that had Colorado State ranked ahead of Air Force (this includes me) should probably reverse them: Air Force beat State handily (24-0), and their two losses came with their best player hurt.
So here are my rankings (in order from best to worst):
Undefeated teams: Michigan, Nebraska
One Loss: Penn State, Tennessee, Washington State, Florida State, Kansas State, North Carolina
Two Losses: Florida, Ohio State, UCLA, Arizona State, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, Air Force, Colorado State, Toledo,
New Mexico, Louisiana Tech, Marshall.