Football at Steven St. John's Homepage

Commentary: September 27, 1998

It's Week 5 And I Haven't Learned A Thing

My first commentary this year was called: Everything I Needed To Know About College Football I Learned In Week 1. The title was a little tongue in cheek as I struggled for material just four games into the season. But now we are 5 weeks into the season, and I am still struggling: struggling with a picks mark hovering around 60%, struggling to make out a top 25 I can believe in. My preseason number 1, Michigan, looked absolutely dreadful in its first two appearances, and my replacement number 1, Florida State, stumbled against one of the easier marks on their schedule. Other teams I championed, such as North Carolina and Colorado State, have done little to prove worthy of that praise, and my one success story, selecting upstart Washington to win the Pac Ten, got their clocks cleaned in Lincoln.

This article is not a defense of my poor prognostication performance; obviously, there are 14 experts out there who have waded through the minefield far more successfully than I have. But the early season has provided an unusual share of oxymoronic results, or things to make me go "Bloooop!"

Consider:

If you thought this looked good...
...then explain this!

North Carolina State 24, FSU 7
North Carolina State looks brilliant against Florida State, not only running well against the Seminoles' vaunted rushing defense, but passing like crazy. Can anyone stop WR Holt? Is NC State the real deal?
Baylor 33, North Carolina State 30
No. Inexplicably, the Wolfpack fail to seize upon their own momentum, losing to a team that is about as inferior to Florida State as you can get without going to the Big West conference.

Auburn 17, Mississippi 0
That Auburn should beat Mississippi is not a great surprise. But Ole Miss has a solid club this year, and it's hard to ignore the fact that...
Virginia 19, Auburn 0
...just weeks before, the Tigers looked completely lifeless in a 19-0 rout at the hands of Virginia.

Alabama 38, Brigham Young 31
In a game not as close as the final margin, Alabama won a shootout in un-Tide like fashion. Showing an impressive, multi-faceted offense, the Tide built a large lead over a good BYU club with a healthy mix of Shaun Alexander running the ball, and an unexpected aerial onslaught. Heck, the only thing us SEC fans expect even less is, say, Arkansas showing a high powered offense.
Arkansas 42, Alabama 6
Bam! The Hogs looked brilliant yet again, this time against real competition. And as suddenly as talk of 1992 returned to Tuscaloosa, it was back to grudging thoughts of 1997 again. How could a team that had looked so good lose so bad?

Air Force 42, Wake Forest 0
Air Force 52, UNLV 10
With all the attention focussed on Colorado State in the preseason, people forgot Air Force still had Blaine Morgan and a pretty good, high powered team. With Colorado State stumbling, Air Force jumped out to a huge lead in the WAC race, with an easy schedule remaining.
Texas Christian 35, Air Force 34

Easy like, say, the Horned Frogs. The same, hapless Horned Frogs-- a team that might make the Bottom 25-- that can now boast to beating a team from the Top 25.

Boston College 41, Georgia Tech 31
Having heard of nothing but disarray from the BC campus over the last few years, I didn't expect the Eagles to be much of a factor. But after trouncing the Yellowjackets far worse than the 10 point margin indicates, it became clear that these guys were a force to be reckoned with.
Louisville 52, Boston College 28
Or maybe not. Don't get me wrong, Louisville has a good QB, but they have little else. Certainly not enough to justify a tail whipping. These guys couldn't hold Georgia Tech's collective jock and yet, well, it's college football, after all.

Notre Dame 36, Michigan 20
The big early season shocker. And even though later events would convince us that Michigan was not all that, still, we know that Michigan was quite a bit better than Michigan State, so the Irish should beat Michigan State, right?
Michigan State 45, Notre Dame 23
Or, alternatively, maybe State would kick them up and down the field. Ouch. At least we know now that Notre Dame can't beat Purdue. Good grief, I'm so confused!

Michigan State 45, Notre Dame 23
Here's more mind-boggling midwestern malarkey. Michigan State pounds Notre Dame, just obliterates them...
Oregon 48, Michigan State 14
...yet we know that, weeks before, Oregon tore Michigan State apart. I mean, yeesh, this is the team they call the quack attack. The quack attack, for goodness sake!

Washington 42, Arizona State 38
A game for the ages. Brock Huard looks very Brett Favre-ish, threading passing, making key third downs, standing up in the pocket. And so Washington comes away from Arizona State with an important conference win against the team many were picking to play for a championship.
Nebraska 55, Washington 7
You knew Washington was going to have trouble stopping Nebraska, but given Louisiana Tech's success against the Cornhuskers, you figured the Huskies would score more than 7 in Lincoln. This game was brutal. Everyone else can hope Nebraska is peaking too soon.

Utah 45, Louisville 22
Utah rolls to an early 3-0 start, including this big win against a Louisville team that had hung with a very good Kentucky and that would beat major conference teams Boston College and Illinois. So the Utes are for real, right?
Boise State 31, Utah 28
Or, they might lose to a team that almost offered my grandmother a scholarship. Whatever.

So after five weeks I've learned that Oregon is the best team in the country. I guess. At least I feel temporarily better about my 60% prediction rate. Hey, I'm still above the Jimmy the Greek line.

Other Notes

You may have missed: Praire View A&M snapped their winless steak with a victory over Langston... New Mexico State won its second straight after being picked preseason number 112 by me... Peyton Manning got closer than he ever to beating Wuerffel, but Danny threw a TD pass in overtime to lead the Saints past the Colts; Manning threw 3 INT... Heater14 needed a gutsy upset pick of USC to derail a perfect 14-0 picks week... Oz has 11 close scores this year and is proving to be a dizzyingly accurate predictor of score each week... Kent is really, really bad.

If you thought this looked good...	...then explain this!
North Carolina State 24, FSU 7 North Carolina State looks brilliant against Florida State, not only running well against the Seminoles' vaunted rushing defense, but passing like crazy. Can anyone stop WR Holt? Is NC State the real deal?	Baylor 33, North Carolina State 30 No. Inexplicably, the Wolfpack fail to seize upon their own momentum, losing to a team that is about as inferior to Florida State as you can get without going to the Big West conference.
Auburn 17, Mississippi 0 That Auburn should beat Mississippi is not a great surprise. But Ole Miss has a solid club this year, and it's hard to ignore the fact that...	Virginia 19, Auburn 0 ...just weeks before, the Tigers looked completely lifeless in a 19-0 rout at the hands of Virginia.
Alabama 38, Brigham Young 31 In a game not as close as the final margin, Alabama won a shootout in un-Tide like fashion. Showing an impressive, multi-faceted offense, the Tide built a large lead over a good BYU club with a healthy mix of Shaun Alexander running the ball, and an unexpected aerial onslaught. Heck, the only thing us SEC fans expect even less is, say, Arkansas showing a high powered offense.	Arkansas 42, Alabama 6 Bam! The Hogs looked brilliant yet again, this time against real competition. And as suddenly as talk of 1992 returned to Tuscaloosa, it was back to grudging thoughts of 1997 again. How could a team that had looked so good lose so bad?
Air Force 42, Wake Forest 0 Air Force 52, UNLV 10 With all the attention focussed on Colorado State in the preseason, people forgot Air Force still had Blaine Morgan and a pretty good, high powered team. With Colorado State stumbling, Air Force jumped out to a huge lead in the WAC race, with an easy schedule remaining.	Texas Christian 35, Air Force 34 Easy like, say, the Horned Frogs. The same, hapless Horned Frogs-- a team that might make the Bottom 25-- that can now boast to beating a team from the Top 25.
Boston College 41, Georgia Tech 31 Having heard of nothing but disarray from the BC campus over the last few years, I didn't expect the Eagles to be much of a factor. But after trouncing the Yellowjackets far worse than the 10 point margin indicates, it became clear that these guys were a force to be reckoned with.	Louisville 52, Boston College 28 Or maybe not. Don't get me wrong, Louisville has a good QB, but they have little else. Certainly not enough to justify a tail whipping. These guys couldn't hold Georgia Tech's collective jock and yet, well, it's college football, after all.
Notre Dame 36, Michigan 20 The big early season shocker. And even though later events would convince us that Michigan was not all that, still, we know that Michigan was quite a bit better than Michigan State, so the Irish should beat Michigan State, right?	Michigan State 45, Notre Dame 23 Or, alternatively, maybe State would kick them up and down the field. Ouch. At least we know now that Notre Dame can't beat Purdue. Good grief, I'm so confused!
Michigan State 45, Notre Dame 23 Here's more mind-boggling midwestern malarkey. Michigan State pounds Notre Dame, just obliterates them...	Oregon 48, Michigan State 14 ...yet we know that, weeks before, Oregon tore Michigan State apart. I mean, yeesh, this is the team they call the quack attack. The quack attack, for goodness sake!
Washington 42, Arizona State 38 A game for the ages. Brock Huard looks very Brett Favre-ish, threading passing, making key third downs, standing up in the pocket. And so Washington comes away from Arizona State with an important conference win against the team many were picking to play for a championship.	Nebraska 55, Washington 7 You knew Washington was going to have trouble stopping Nebraska, but given Louisiana Tech's success against the Cornhuskers, you figured the Huskies would score more than 7 in Lincoln. This game was brutal. Everyone else can hope Nebraska is peaking too soon.
Utah 45, Louisville 22 Utah rolls to an early 3-0 start, including this big win against a Louisville team that had hung with a very good Kentucky and that would beat major conference teams Boston College and Illinois. So the Utes are for real, right?	Boise State 31, Utah 28 Or, they might lose to a team that almost offered my grandmother a scholarship. Whatever.