Every year a couple of teams come out of nowhere, jump up, and surprise you. Last year, the success stories were Purdue, Oklahoma State, and Pittsburgh, among others. Early in the season, these teams are always tough to gauge. Have they been playing pansies? Or do they have some superstar no one knew about? Do they deserve to be ranked? Will it last? Just who are these guys, anyway?
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) | #20, 430.4 yds/game | #20, 296.1 yds/game |
The Texas Tech home page's 1998 outlook bragged about how this team is perennially underrated. It is true. Year after year they are predicted to finish 5th or 6th in the division, yet they always manage to finish #2 or #3. But, since the Big 12 South itself is perennially overrated, it is hard to tell if the Red Raiders feed off of the other teams playing badly (like Texas of late, and Texas A&M of the mid 90s), or if they themselves are constantly producing winners.
Another concern is Texas Tech has not had a particularly tough schedule to open the season. After pounding a WAC team and a Big West team, the Red Raiders scraped by Fresno State, Iowa State, and Baylor. Probably their most impressive games was the ambitious homecoming against Oklahoma State (a win), and a tough loss at Colorado. Indeed, the loss was probably the best demonstration that Texas Tech is for real. Playing a tough road game against a good Colorado team, and losing only thanks to turnovers and good clock management by the opponent, speaks well of Texas Tech for their upcoming showdown with Texas A&M. Anyway, you've gotta like a team that opened the season with "Buddy Holly Festival and Church Night".
The real talent at Tech is the guy they are calling Little Ricky Williams. Little Ricky is third nationally with 166 yards/game, on a 5.5 yards/carry average. The Red Raiders need to keep the ball on the ground to win; their two quarterbacks have accounted for 9 TD passes with 8 INT. Turnovers proved costly against Colorado and could be a problem next week against the Wrecking Crew's defense.
Prognosis: This is probably as good as it gets for the Red Raiders. I had them preseason ranked 49, and I think that is fair. Expect them to go 2-2 down the stretch, and finish, as usual, higher than predicted.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Tulane Green Wave (5-0) | #18, 433.0 yds/game | #99, 440.2 yds/game |
Tulane must have a bend don't break defense. Despite being ranked 99th in total defense, the Green Wave have only allowed 21.6 points per game (40th nationally). Not bad for a team that scores almost 35 ponts a game. Tulane is absolutely ruling a conference that Southern Miss was expected to phone in. And Tommy Bowden is looking like the messiah that Auburn thought Terry Bowden would be (and that Saint Bobby supposedly is).
The force behind the Green Wave is a quarterback that didn't even make my Quarterback Nation commentary: Shaun King. All King does is complete 62.4% of his passes, with 14 TD on 4 INT. His 170.2 pass efficiency rating is 5th nationally; better than all the Heisman candidates (McNown, Huard, Culpepper, Rattay, Couch) except McNabb of Syracuse. King vanquished two of his biggest rivals in Southern Miss and Louisville while playing with a broken, nonthrowing wrist.
Jajuan Dawson and PJ Franklin have proven to be reliable receivers, and the Green Wave are getting excellent production from the running game. Jamaican Dartez and Toney Converse have combined for 693 yards in 5 games on a 5.2 yard per carry clip.
Prognosis: The Green Wave most likely secured the C-USA crown - and a bowl bid - with their last two wins. The only question is whether the Green Wave can go undefeated, which frankly is likely. My preseason rank for this team was #37; a number probably indicative of their talent and performance, but an undefeated record will warrant a higher postseason ranking.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0) | #33, 414.0 yds/game | #27, 310.1 yds/game |
A surprise team? Yes and No. All Marshall has done in the 90s is win win win. They won under Jim Donnan, now at Georgia. They are winning under Bob Pruett now. The made the jump to Division I-A and kept winning thanks to Randy Moss, who is now helping the Vikings to a 6-0 start in the NFL. But did you think they would keep winning?
Yes and No. I had them slated to go 10-2, but now they are 7-0, and looking like a lock to win the conference and finish undefeated. It doesn't appear that anyone from the west can beat them, and their schedule is easy down the stretch.
A big key to Marshall's success is quarterback Chad Pennington. His stats: 63.9% for 2020 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT. Without Moss, Pennington has spread the ball around to a good receiving corps; Nate Poole (33 catches for 401 yards), Lavorn Colclough (30 catches, 5 TDs), and Jerrald Long (24 catches). The feature back is Doug Chapman, who is dangerous running and receiving. Danielle Derricott, despite the effeminate name, is among the nation's interceptions leaders with 5.
Prognosis: A very good chance to go 12-0 and reach a bowl game. The only challenge should be the western opponent; the western team hosts the championship game this year.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Oregon Ducks (5-1) | #3, 522.8 yds/game | #67, 369.5 yds/game |
Here's another team, like Texas Tech, that will receive a great deal of respect for its one loss: an OT loss to UCLA. There's two kinds of good losses though. There's the good loss you feel good about, like the way Texas A&M lost to Florida State early in the season (a game that John agreed felt like Texas A&M was happy to lose a close one). Then there's the good loss you feel sick to your stomach about. Oregon had plenty of chances to beat UCLA, but came up short. Neither team had their best game of the season, but together they produced a thriller.
Oregon really looks to be for real. They have played several patsies, but they did what you are supposed to do with patsies, they pounded them. And in the toughies-- Michigan State and UCLA-- they acquitted themselves well.
The Ducks are averaging 48.5 points a game, a lot of it thanks to quarterback Akili Smith. Smith has thrown for over 1600 yards while making few errors (18 TD vs 4 INT). The Ducks also feature an exciting running game, with Reuben Droughns (824 yards, 7.4 yds/carry, 9 TD) and Herman Hoching (177/6.6/2). The man at wide receiver is Damon Griffin (31 catches for 612 yards and 5 TD). On special teams, Michael Fletcher averages more than 14 yards a punt return, and Nathan Villegas is 11 for 11 on field goals. The Ducks have a sophisticated offense headed by a smart quarterback and an average defense-- the recipe for good PAC-10 football.
Prognosis: The Ducks deserve a good bowl game, and the Rose Bowl should consider taking them if they lose the Pac-Ten champ (I'm assuming UCLA here) to the Fiesta Bowl. The Ducks still have four tough tests ahead (Washington, Arizona State, USC, and Arizona), but they look capable of winning 3 or all 4 of those games.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Arizona Wildcats (6-1) | #29, 419.1 yds/game | #37, 331.3 yds/game |
While most pundits deliriously picked Arizona State to be the cream of the desert crop, this pundit counts as a victory ranking Arizona preseason #17 and Arizona State preseason #25. While the Sun Devils may not even justify that ranking, the Wildcats have proven themselves a top 20 team. Whereas the good Wildcat teams of the early 90s were built on defense, this Wildcat team features an exciting offense.
For one, the two headed quarterback system was almost as good as Florida's between the 20 yard lines, and is even better in the red zone. As Ortege Jenkins showed on the last play of the Washington game, Arizona will do whatever it takes to capitalize on a good drive. Jenkins is 49 of 99 for 763 yards (4 TD, 2 INT), while the more reliable Keith Smith is 64 for 100 for 928 yards (7 TD, 3 INT). The two headed quarterback leads a three-headed backfield, with contributions from Trung Canidate (403 yards/4.3 per), Kelvin Eafon (295 yards/3.6), and Leon Callen (244 yards/4.6). The rushing game is further bolstered by two very mobile quarterbacks.
Arizona also boasts a good receiving corps in Dennis Northcutt (688 yards/4 TD) and Jeremy Mcdaniel (573 yards/7 TD).
Prognosis: Arizona has three testers left: Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State. I predict they will lose two of those games, making good on my preseason 9-3 prediciton.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Arkansas Razorbacks (6-0) | #35, 412.2 yds/game | #22, 301.0 yds/game |
Arkansas is hard to figure. People woke up to this team after a 42-6 win at Alabama, and while they were awake Arkansas went on to beat a good Kentucky team 27-20. Those two wins give some credibility to the 412 yards averaged on offense (Alabama has a pretty good defense) and the #22 total defense mark (Kentucky has a great offense). They have the defense to shut down the remaining teams on their schedule, but games at Auburn and at Tennessee will challenge this newly free-slinging Razorback offense.
For all the good things being said about Arkansas quarterback Clint Stoerner (48.9%, 1384 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT), the force at Arkansas, as usual, is the ground game. The Hogs have two good ones: Chrys Chukwuma (450 yards, 7.0 average, 5 TD) and Madre Hill (435/4.9/5).
Prognosis: Nothing comes easy for the Hogs in their next 5 games. The chance to go 6-5 after a 6-0 start still exists. They will run into a great defense at Tennessee and at Auburn; units that will really test Cliff Stoerner. I suspect they will drop 3 of their final five games; but an 8-3 mark would greatly surpass my preseason 4-7 prediciton.
Team |
National Total Offense Rank |
National Total Defense Rank |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1) | #76, 324.8 yds/game | #8, 268.5 yds/game |
Yes, the #8 defense in the land, but still a defense with question marks. Although State has two shutouts to its credit (Vandy, South Carolina) and twice held teams to 6 points (Memphis, East Tennessee State), the Bulldogs were also the only team to allow Auburn to score more than 20 points and allowed 360 rushing yards against Oklahoma State. The bottom line is the dogs are likely not at good defensively as the numbers indicate.
But offensively they are not as bad, either. The Bulldogs feature one of the more underrated running backs, James Johnson, who leads the SEC with 125 yards per game and who rushed for over 100 in 5 of 6 games this season. He is also one of three backs on the team averaging more than 6 yards a carry, an impressive number for Johnson who has carried the ball 123 times this season. The Bulldogs are weak at quarterback, so Johnson will have to continue running well if State is to survive the remainder of their schedule.
Prognosis: Negative. I had the Bulldogs slated to go 6-5, and that is still a very likely scenario. Although there is not a game on their schedule that they can't win, it will be tough for this one-dimensional team to find a way to win each game along the way. Going .500 over the last 5 games would be cause for celebration.
The Good and The Bad, Reprised
Two weeks ago I did a column on the 16 undefeated and 10 winless teams in Division 1-A. Here's an update: the numbers have shrunk to 8 and 4, respectively. The most startling game to result in a change is those numbers was winless Temple beating undefeated Virginia Tech. How's that for a reversal of fortune? Also of note, still undefeated UCLA is responsible for removing 2 of the formerly undefeated teams in two weeks: Arizona and Oregon. Of the teams I ranked Probable or Possible to go undefeated, only Nebraska has fallen, a surprise loser to Texas A&M. My "Unthinkable" teams both lost (Texas Tech and Colorado), and several Doubtfuls fell as well (add to Oregon, Virginia Tech and Arizona: Georgia and Virginia).
Of the winless teams, I ranked Temple probable to go undefeated, thinking Rutgers was their only hope. Memphis got of the schneid by beating winless Cincinatti in last week's Loser Bowl, and Northern Illinois was a winner over fellow doormat Central Michigan. North Texas beat a Nevada team that is proving to be the disappointment of the Big West, and Southwestern Louisiana overcame the loss of their teammates to the Mexican legal system to defeat Arkansas State. UTEP notched a conference win over New Mexico.
The remaining teams without a win? Cincinatti, UNLV, Kent, and Vanderbilt. I am upgrading Vandy to Probable, and upgrading Cincy to Doubtful. I continue to have no hope for Kent.