The four undefeated teams in college football each have one game remaining that they could lose: for Tennessee and Kansas State, it will be the conference championship; for UCLA, the rain-postponed game at Miami; and for Tulane, an upcoming shootout versus Louisiana Tech. The Vols also have a gimme against Vanderbilt. If you're a BCS advocate, you are hoping two of those teams lose, but certainly the safe money is on two undefeated teams being left out of the so-called Fiesta National Championship.
A convoluted formula will decide the losers. One of the most important features of that formula, strength of schedule, will probably be the deciding factor. Interesting that it is the one factor the coaches and players have no control over: it was decided by athletic directors and the vagaries of circumstance two to five years ago.
In this commentary, I hope to bring to bear a more rigorous analysis.
| Kansas State | Tennessee | Tulane | UCLA |
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vs Indiana State, 66-0 vs Northern Illinois, 73-7 vs Texas, 48-7 vs NE Louisiana, 62-7 at Colorado, 16-9 vs Oklahoma State, 52-20 vs Iowa State, 52-7 at Kansas, 54-6 at Baylor, 49-6 vs Nebraska, 40-30 at Missouri, 31-25 |
at Syracuse, 34-33 vs Florida, 20-17 (OT) vs Houston, 42-7 at Auburn, 17-9 at Georgia, 22-3 vs Alabama, 35-18 at South Carolina, 49-14 vs UAB, 37-13 vs Arkansas, 28-24 vs Kentucky, 59-21 |
at Cincinnati, 52-34 at SMU, 31-21 vs Navy, 42-24 vs Southern Miss, 21-7 vs Louisville, 28-22 at Rutgers, 52-24 vs SW Louisiana, 72-20 at Memphis, 41-31 at Army, 49-35 vs Houston, 48-20 |
vs Texas, 49-31 at Houston, 42-24 vs Washington State, 49-17 at Arizona, 52-28 vs Oregon, 41-38 at Calfornia, 28-16 vs Stanford, 28-24 at Oregon State, 41-34 at Washington, 36-24 vs Southern Cal, 34-17 |
I don't know how many definitive statements you can make looking at the schedules. For Kansas State, the conventional wisdom was that they only had to play one game this year: Nebraska. But now that Nebraska is 8-3, a 10 point victory at home doesn't look all that good. On the other hand, the games against Colorado (7-3), Texas (7-3), and Missouri (7-4) now seem to be tougher contests than originally projected. The real test will come against Texas A&M in the Big 12 Championship.
Tennessee's schedule appears to be the toughest on paper, with wins over Syracuse (7-3), Florida (9-2), Georgia (8-2), Alabama (7-4), Arkansas (8-2), and Kentucky (7-4). But confidence in Tennessee is colored by the feeling that they were awfully fortunate in three of those contests. Do we credit Tennessee for being able to win when the game is on the line, or do we debit them for being a hair from 7-3?
UCLA is impossible to read, because the Pac Ten is impossible to read. Does Oregon's loss last week to Oregon State minimize UCLA's big win over Oregon, or does it minimize the criticism they received for struggling against Oregon State themselves? Do we put more faith in UCLA's crushing of 10-1 Arizona or their miracle win against 3-8 Stanford? Are they one of these teams that plays to the level of their competition, or have they been fortunate to play well against the better teams on their schedule?
Perhaps the only definitive statement one can make is that Tulane has had the weakest schedule, and, not surprisingly, the weakest claim to the top spot. If you read down the offensive points you'll be impressed, if you see that they gave up a bunch of points to the Cincinnatis, Memphises, and Armys of the world, you'll be less than impressed.
Here's how the teams stack up offensively. Keep in mind when looking at the numbers the kind of competition the teams have faced. The numbers in parentheses indicate the rank across all 112 NCAA teams.
| Category | NCAA Best | Kansas State | Tennessee | Tulane | UCLA |
| Rushing (yds/game) | 283.1 (Army) | 229.2 (10) | 219.6 (14) | 192.3 (27) | 191.2 (28) |
| Passing (yds/game) | 428.5 (La Tech) | 245.6 (27) | 180.1 (77) | 302.2 (13) | 272.7 (18) |
| Total (yds/game) | 559.6 (Louisville) | 474.8 (9) | 399.7 (33) | 494.5 (6) | 463.9 (12) |
| Scoring (pts/game) | -- | 49.4 (1) | 34.3 (15) | 43.6 (2) | 40.0 (6) |
| Turnovers (margin/g) | +2.0 (Wisconsin) | +1.36 (5) | +0.90 (16) | +1.30 (6) | +1.80 (2) |
In general, all four teams are excellent offensively. Kansas State has put up a lot of big numbers against some very poor teams, although there output of 40 points against Nebraska suggests that their high-powered offense is for real. Tennessee has the weakest offensive numbers of the group, with a particular weakness in the passing department. But as their quarterback Tee Martin continues to improve, the team will get even better. It is also likely that Tennessee has faced tougher defenses than have the other teams; Tulane and UCLA have both gone against a number of weak defenses in Conference USA and the Pac Ten, whereas the Vols have been tested against the defenses of Florida, Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Here's how the teams stack up defensively. The numbers in parentheses indicate the rank across all 112 NCAA teams.
| Category | NCAA Best | Kansas State | Tennessee | Tulane | UCLA |
| Rushing (yds/game) | 67.4 (Ohio St) | 95.5 (7) | 97.1 (8) | 181.6 (86) | 145.0 (47) |
| Passing Efficiency D | 79.9 (FSU) | 94.9 (7) | 116.4 (44) | 129.5 (75) | 112.9 (35) |
| Total (yds/game) | 214.8 (FSU) | 251.6 (3) | 331.3 (30) | 420.8 (95) | 406.8 (92) |
| Scoring (pts/game) | 10.2 (Wisconsin) | 11.3 (3) | 15.9 (13) | 23.8 (50) | 25.3 (55) |
Kansas State is clearly the cream of this crop defensively. Again, however, strength of their competition becomes an issue. Probably their rushing defensive numbers are more trustworthy than their passing defensive numbers, given that the Big Twelve is, in general, a better running conference than throwing. In contrast, Tennessee has played a number of very good throwing teams, and have only allowed 15.9 points per game. Likewise, while UCLA's defense has been considered suspect, their passing defense is still pretty good in a conference that loves to toss the ball around. Tulane's defense is abysmal.
It really is a big mish mash at the top. Obviously Tulane has no real claim to the BCS game, but at this point it is hard to pick a favorite two among the other three. Both Tennessee and UCLA have had their scares, but UCLA's have come against bad teams, whereas Tennessee's have come against good teams. Kansas State carries the same burden that Nebraska carried in the late 80s and early 90s: a good record against questionable competition. Kansas State has, however, done pretty much all it could do. The Wildcats have handled the good teams on their schedule, and hammered the bad ones. For the most part, fewer questions surround this team than the other two.
Also on the side of Kansas State is their remaining game against Texas A&M. The Aggies, having lost only to FSU and having beaten Nebraska, may be the second best team in the Big Twelve and are certainly one of the best dozen teams in the country. A win over the Aggies will be more impressive than a UCLA win on the road against the Miami Hurricanes, and will effectively erase the nagging doubts about the Wildcats. Tennessee has the easiest remaining schedule, with a game against Vanderbilt and an SEC championship game against either Arkansas or Mississippi State. But even though the Vols have struggled at times, you can't help but feel that they have been tested enough: if the bastards were going to lose, they would have lost somewhere along their fairly difficult schedule.
My Fiesta Bowl matchup: Kansas State vs. Tennessee. Could you imagine K State winning a national championship? How many 2-9 seasons have they slugged through in the last decade? Can I imagine a Tennessee national championship? No. I absolutely refuse to. No. Fulmer being carried off the field? No. No. No!