Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice on investment decisions.
Nasdaq Mar.25 Nasdaq Mar.18 INDEX DELL Computer EMAIL me

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1840.26

The Nasdaq will FOOL everyone
Sun., Apr. 1, 2001

******************Commentary*******************
Apr.1. The failure of last Monday's forecasted Nasdaq bounce was a great disappointment and depressed many investors. Confirmation of a sustainable rebound will happen if the Nasdaq closes and remains above intermediate (90-day) resistance at 1900. Nasdaq rallied Friday with great scepticism, short-term stochastics (10-day Nasdaq chart) improved to 75.00/49.57% (vs 60.22/77.16%). Nasdaq is near bottom, and tested the previous Mar. 22 bottom, evidenced by stochastics on CISCO, ORACLE, and SUN MICROSYSTEMS suddenly turning bit higher. Intermediate (90-day Nasdaq chart) stochastics are turning up at 24.82/30.50% (vs 56.85/16.62%). Longer-term (2-year Nasdaq chart) stochastics are over-sold at 4.19/21.02% (vs 12.25/26.02%). This next Nasdaq rebound could be the real thing, especially if tag-team fools at CNBC continue to HYPE investors out with a "Lack of VISIBILITY"
(D. Faber), slowdowns in Europe (M. Bartiromo), zero "consistency" of the guest analysts appearing lately. Ladies and gentlemen, CNBC advice is bankrupt. CNBC guest analysts yelled "buy" 1 year ago at Nasdaq 5000. Now they are screaming "SELL" tech, led by incredibly inconsistent Lehman Analyst Dan Niles (year ago called $88 Intel). INTEL now at $26 (my forecast Mar.18). Stochastics are turning very neutral at 33.73/45.52% (vs 79.07/27.53%). Intel at $26 was forecasted by Piper Jaffray's Ashok Kumar last Fall. Now this analyst predicts Intel is headed below $20, but INTEL is headed for $39 target price. Disappointing MICROSOFT stochastics are now turning neutral at 56.03/55.04% (vs an over-bought 93.97/29.46%). MICROSOFT will hold forecasted $51 support. Big news is that CISCO stochastics are now turning positive, still a "BUY" at 11.71/15.27% (vs 8.77/24.17%). CISCO has great long-term potential, needs an $18 base to recover. ORACLE stabilized on short covering. Oracle stochastics turning positive at 34.07/47.32% (vs 67.86/25.10%). MACD (-1.81), RSI rising. WORLDCOM stochastics 74.55/74.57% flash sell (vs 53.57/54.81%). Overhead resistance confirmed at $19. Support on a downleg at $16. DELL stochastics fell to 51.32/70.90% (vs over-bought 92.93/61.24%). RSI looked over-bought at 71 last week, made for a short sale at $28. Negative news soon on unit shipments will severely hurt PC stocks. SUNW stochastics are now turning positive, a "BUY" at 22.99/30.07% (vs 56.00/33.16%). SUNW needs $15 base for great long-term promise. Nasdaq has fallen over 0.74% per day for 25 trading days, or 18.66% since Feb.24. In that time, Cisco down 40.8%, makes it recovery tops. Consider diversification. Markets outside the U.S. have greater long-term potential.Japan ADRs I selected in the past two weeks:
NEC(NIPNY)up 16% Canon(CAJ)up 8% Nissan(NSANY)up 6%
One year anniversary. Thanks for reading. CANADIAN STOCKS!
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