Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be solely relied on for your investment decisions.
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1562.56

June 4, 2002 - Nasdaq to hit BOTTOM soon

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June 4. Go To Page 1 Nasdaq Composite closed at 1562.56 on June 3.
Intel closed 26.62 -1.00 (-3.62%) below moving average resistance at 27.80. RSI, MACD negative, 5%/21% stochastics forecasting a slow downward drift. Play Intel for trading range topping at 32, with major support at 26. Micron Technology in PC chip slowdown according to Lehman Bros. Dan Niles caused Friday's Nasdaq market fall to begin.
Microsoft closed 49.42 -1.49 (-2.9%) below moving average resistance 51.75. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics eased to over-sold 3%/13%. No one believes Microsoft will go to 40 which it might. Microsoft just settled with SEC regarding accounting manipulations that would send other corporations reeling. Microsoft's 600 lawyers got them off free. Microsoft wants to attempt to corner Internet Services with its new dot.Net initiative. Will spend $2 billion on promoting its slow-growth X-box games, while radically cutting prices on slow moving software. Games anyone? Play them at lunch time (or on company time) in your comfy corporate cubicle. Al Greenspan praises productivity by U.S. workers, so what about PC games? Is he counting all those PC hours playing games at an office on company time? Does Al even use PC's?
Cisco closed 15.33 -0.45 (-2.85%) below its moving average resistance 15.95. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics falling to a bullish over-sold 2%/22%. When Nasdaq made a short-term bottom on May 7, funds piled into Cisco, because Cisco reported $0.10 per share Q1 earnings. Cisco left a chart gap from 13.50 to 15.15 which could be filled in June. CNBC host Jim Cramer touted Cisco over 20 repeatedly in January. When funds start selling Cisco and Microsoft, it will mark a bottom.
Oracle closed 7.32 -0.60 (-7.56%) below moving average resistance 8.20. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics scraping the bottom at over-sold 0%/8%. Oracle, second in software to Microsoft, has peaked in the long-term product development cycle. In the past year, key major defections by top Oracle management thinned ranks. With this year's IT spending growth non-existent, strictly an average stock. The only growth project at Oracle is a bid to produce the U.S. National ID Card.
Worldcom closed 1.55 -0.11 (-6.63%) below mov. aver. resistance 1.60. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics rising from over-sold to 21%/9%. Announced tracking stock MCI will recombine with parent this July.
Dell closed 26.18 -0.67 (-2.50%) below mov. average resistance 26.80. RSI, MACD negative, stochastics plunging to an over-sold 2%/33%. Two years ago, CNBC showcased guests recommending Dell at 50. Biggest CNBC bull 2 years ago, Lehman's Dan Niles had buy at 53. Niles pushed Compaq at 22 a share a year ago, he is a CNBC expert?
Sun Micro closed 6.61 -0.28 (-4.06%) below mov. average resistance 6.85. RSI, MACD positive, stochastics slightly over-sold at 10%/35%.
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