Steve Zito, MS Fin/BS Econ Wharton School, HTML Writers Guild
uses economic and technical analysis to forecast the direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be solely relied on for your investment decisions.
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE
INDEX closed 1535.48

June 10, 2002 -Nasdaq has buyers at 1500

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June 10 Go To Page 2 Nasdaq Composite closed at 1535.48 on June 7.
Nasdaq has fallen 27.08 (1.7%) since June 4 page. CNBC showcased weekly tech analysis when its former analyst John Bollinger said net new highs ("he digs out new highs from Barrons every week") ran in steady negative territory from 1970 to 1975. Said, "his phone steadily ringing off the hook with people comparing a current Bear Market to the 1973-74 Bear Market." My readers asked me in November 2000 what a Republican presidential victory meant for the economy, and I wrote then it meant recession just like in 1981-82. In fact, the current Bear Market in Nasdaq is just like the 1981-82 Bear Market. Today's stock market has no resemblance to the 1973-74 decline despite what John Bollinger says. The drop in 1973 was caused by OPEC tripling oil prices, and Vietnam War's end. The drop in 1981-82 was caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates repeatedly in 1980 and 1981, just like Alan Greenspan did in 1999-2000 to kill off what the geriatric Greenspan labeled as "irrational exuberance." Greenspan has been credited for 8 year expansion miracle under Clinton. Greenspan never has been blamed for stock market crashes and ensuing Bear Markets, first in 1987, when he raised Fed rates too fast, and then again in 2000, when he raised rates six times and killed the Bull of the 1990's. U.S.A. has the potential to grow faster and maintain employment with 3.5% unemployment, but Greenspan is allowed to keep 5.8% of 135 million labor pool out of work to curb 2% inflation. A 5.8% jobless rate does not include those who stopped looking out of frustration, and those working in low-paid meaningless jobs who want better work. U.S.A. boasts 31 million poor families and 15 million illegal immigrants. This by Republicans who only received 7% of an African-American vote. Current U.S. market declines are due to investor lack of confidence in financial statements and distrust of the Bush agenda for U.S. society. There is no trust in respected 89-year old audit firm Arthur Andersen despite Lou Dobb's (CNN) daily TV defense of Andersen auditors as completely innocent, ignoring partner David Duncan's guilty plea to obstruction of justice and a criminal trial underway in Houston which will bring Andersen to justice. Just like their totally wrong Intel call October/November 1999, Merrill Lynch has downgraded Intel just as Intel announced lowering revenue guidance from 6% this year to 3%. Not surprisingly, Intel dropped $5 and caused 60-point opening gap. Volume was heavy, but funds were buying under 1500 and Nasdaq rallied back. Bottom? No way to tell, since Bush administration trust is evaporating (approval rating has declined off 97% to 69%), driving the Euro to 17-month high versus the dollar. With TV networks using hosts (CNN Lou Dobbs) to rally support for Arab racial discrimination and Bush administration planning to fingerprint tourists to U.S., why would foreigners want to change money to dollars, then come here? Unless visitors want to become a politician or a priest or a TV host.
How to Use Site. Innocent Arthur Andersen? Top Nasdaq Big-Caps
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