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Steve Zito is a stock market technical analyst who also uses economic and technical analysis to forecast general direction of the stock market. The views in this newsletter are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as advice for investment decision-making. If you have a specific question use the feedback form. ---Feedback ---Home Page ---INDEX

NASDAQ INDICATORS
THE STANDINGS

Six of eight indicators negative
Tue. April 11, 2000

NASDAQ AT 4055
CHART INDICATORS
30-min. chart: 20-period moving average
Intel at 130
Negative trend
resistance 133

Microsoft at 84
Negative trend
resistance 86

Cisco at 70
Negative trend
resistance 72

Oracle at 77
Negative trend
resistance 81

MCI WCOM at 42
Neutral trend
resistance 43

Dell at 55
Neutral trend
resistance 55

Weekly Nasdaq COMP
Negative
resistance 4242

Monthly Nasdaq COMP
Positive
long-term support 3202

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******************Commentary*******************
April 11. The big six of the Nasdaq will tell what the Nasdaq COMP will do. They comprise 23% of Nasdaq capitalization. Let's take them individually. Intel Corp (INTC) broke down on March 28 at 144, but MACD and stochastics turned negative several days before as noted on March 23. The MACD, RSI and stochastics are even more negative today, with INTC at 130. Look for INTC to go nowhere but down. It is way above its historical P/E range of 34. Microsoft(MSFT) on the other hand, has declined severely from 115 March 24 to today's 84. MSFT is oversold with stochastics at 18% and MACD improving. Look for a substantial bounce next month after the late April court hearing in MSFT. I will add MSFT calls to the MODEL PORTFOLIO soon. CISCO(CSCO) at 70 is below CHART resistance at 72, and down from 82 on March 24. The MACD, RSI and stochastics look terrible. This one is going straight down to 55. CSCO is the most widely held stock in the world. No player has sold any CISCO shares in 4 years. It has the second largest market cap behind GE. That is a large pool of potential sellers. Look for CSCO to lead any Nasdaq PLUNGE. Oracle Corp (ORCL) is like MSFT, oversold at 77, four points below resistance at 81. On March 24, ORCL traded at 89, plunged to 65 and then rebounded to 88 all in a week, back down to 77 today. This roller-coaster stock is a poster boy for the new economy. The whole software group has been out of favor since the Microsoft ruling MCI Worldcom (WCOM) at 45 on March 24, now is 42 today, just below resistance of 43. If it trades sideways for one more week, it would be the safest play of the big Nasdaq leaders. Dell (DELL) is trading at 55, right on support/resistance, up from 35 two months ago, and only down 4 points from March 24. It seems to trade on its own agenda, not quite in sync with the Nasdaq COMP.
Today, the Nasdaq COMP traded in a 5% range to the downside. Look for down action tomorrow within an 11% range around 3650 on the COMP. Resistance for the weekly chart is at 4242, and beyond that the COMP would meet major resistance at the five-day MOVING AVERAGE OF 4429. The pros will exit at 4200, or get back in at 3300 on a break of the April 4, 2000 Nasdaq COMP lows at 3650.