July 9, 2000. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 4023.20.
The leaders came to life Friday, gapping higher on the open in a continuation of Thursday's afternoon rally. The Big Six averaged an impressive 1.99% gain compared to the 1.58% rise in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Dell Computer gained 6.15% Friday. Why a stock with a P/E over 78 is being added to portfolios is a mystery. Dell's Web P/C sales have been disastrous in the last 7 months. Microsoft and Worldcom have been very strong for several weeks. More important was last week's bounce by Cisco off short-term support at 63. Cisco had been over-sold as measured by stochastic readings of 30.88/44.19% on June 28. The Nasdaq Index strength remains questionable on daily charts. Stochastics are almost the same as they were on June 30. Key Nasdaq leaders Intel and Oracle show major signs of DISTRIBUTION. Intel is testing the high of 140 set on June 21. Oracle tested its high near 90, and has already broken down last Wednesday. Dell may soon follow in Oracle's footsteps, once investors perceive that PC and especially Internet device sales are slowing down fast. Nasdaq may head lower soon after July stock option expiration, led by Intel, Oracle, and Dell. Recent brokerage downgrades for semiconductor stocks will affect both software as in Oracle and PC makers like Dell, in a domino effect. An analysis of the mixed statistics for daily, weekly, and monthly charts shows that the Nasdaq Composite Index is setting up for another downside test, starting around options expiration Friday, July 21, 2000.

5-minute Nasdaq chart resistance
5-period moving average 4027
20-period moving average 4036
MACD -1.31/1.56 negative
RSI 39.02 neutral
STOCHASTICS 8.17/20.60% negative, but very over-sold
15-minute Nasdaq chart resistance
5-period moving average 4030
20-period moving average 4025
MACD 17.50/22.80 negative
RSI 52.53 neutral
STOCHASTICS 42.99/61.27% negative
30-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4030
20-period moving average 3998
MACD 33.23/31.30 positive
RSI 88.31 positive
STOCHASTICS 76.36/87.73% negative, over-bought
60-minute Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 4023
20-period moving average 3973
MACD 31.72/19.25 positive
RSI 75.54 positive
STOCHASTICS 90.79/88.80% positive, very over-bought
Daily Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 3985
20-period moving average 3904
MACD 65.26/65.61 negative
RSI 56.82 neutral
STOCHASTICS 59.46/55.44% positive
Weekly Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 3917
20-period moving average 3916
MACD 12.09/37.61 negative
RSI 37.46 neutral
STOCHASTICS 63.74/46.68% positive
Monthly Nasdaq chart support
5-period moving average 3984
20-period moving average 3332
MACD 576.08/546.20 positive
RSI 69.50 neutral
STOCHASTICS 60.70/69.12% negative

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