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Like thousands of other investors, the mathematician John Allen Paulos took a bath Worldcom in stock. Differently than most should have known more , after paulos had far-read books of mathematics, like numbers cheat on people to play, including the good-selling '' Innumeracy.'' As a luck loose investor connected Paulos fell into the same desirable traps, which tried less numerate people, supply trusting touts and the Internet slot machines of the investors and to bring by accumulating additional portions, Worldcom supply fell and does not smooth can the bases that telephone industry(surplus capacity, falling income) studies. Before its misfortune with Worldcom, Paulos writes, set it be-knows from mathematics and from probability to the good use: '' I believed that on stock movements were completely occasional and thus trying to outsmart cubes the errand of one fool was. The main part of my money rose therefore in august measures share index capital.'' a but then, since Paulos describes, it fell fatally ' ' in love '' with a hot supply.
But professor Paulos should not rush out and delivery quite still spend those. The book tries, three things to combination:enlightenment and looter of the author in the market, in its skill for mathematical paradoxes of popularizing and in something view on, as money markets would amount to people. This is in principle is nto emacs terrific formula. But mostly Paulos can knit together the not three fibers. Its earlier letter, in which it played to its-obvious strength, is better.
However like a number of repeating of numbers, returning error has : it does not have too many mathematical and tokken (Paulos smaterial special field) on its topic and through.few views to really carry up, how money markets work, or not to the example in its discussion over the general loss one forms that-so-called technical strategies --the market easily is based up-accepted predictable samples -- for Paulos analogy between the stock exchange and the playing plays such as Blackjack and roulette . The difference between Blackjack and roulette, he underlines exactly, is that each rotational acceleration a roulette Ridesa fresh shot with the same probability-offered, while success at a given hand of Blackjack is partly one function, by which maps were before treated. This discussion, like many of its mathematical side effects, buries little light on the dynamics of the markets. _ if win technical strategy present be, write it, successful investor they ' ' without understand, why , '' straight there ' impact the counter ' successful Blackjack ' the house use, bythey to treat map itself remind and the remaining calculate. But so which? Come, to it, Blackjack kraisler machine whores in high of degrees efficiently in the computation and in check of of probabilities. They understand, what they do.
Here and there, although, Paulos its topic engages itself. Being stock exchanges really efficiently? It writes, forms the scandals, which inaugurate-enriched and usual investors like the author you-talk, it with difficulty to believe that ' ' existing information about a supply becomes always fast general knowledge ' ', while the efficient market struggles hypothesis. It any useful, if write, discussions over briefcase theory and the value of the diversification. And it drawsRobert Shiller, Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky on thethat-best author on deviations in the money markets, like RichardT haler, around to investigate the psychology of, why economic superland there fore markets behave themselves, frequently opposed to common sense and to kind of up text book and does not function to way.
But are only superficial-engaged some the most interesting questions.Warren Buffett is for striking the market and that-receives richly famous, by investment-decision-meeting, those on careful study of the bases company basing. Doesn't experience Buffetts, oppositely suggest Paulosszur a general condition that the market is more than emacs lottery? Meeting Pauloss with Buffett is volatile. He raises, butducks then the question of the value investing and again those repairs to the area, which he probability-knows -- statistics and.