2007 TOP 10 Rookie Baseball Picks

by Thomas Fischer
January 10, 2008

Without getting too much into the details of how big the 2007 Rookie Class is, I just have to say WOW! Bill James even admitted in the 2008 Handbook that he was not aware of just how many good young players there are in baseball today until he did some analysis. This is very good news for the Strat-O-Matic Baseball enthusiast. With 30 Major League teams in the modern era, good players seem to have become fewer and further between, and the pitching is so watered down that it is quite difficult to field and good pitching staff in Strat-O-Matic leagues with 20 or more teams.

That being said, in my opinion, Daisuke Matsuzaka is the best player in the 2007 class. No offense meant to Ryan Braun and I am sure it will be proven that his card will have much more impact in SOM leagues all over the country and elsewhere, but I believe that the pitching card of Daisuke Matsuzaka will prove to bring the team that drafts him to the next level in that team's league. Braun can have an impact on producing runs no doubt, but Matsuzaka's card will produce wins for his team. You can score a ton of runs but if you are relying on Jose Contreras as your starting pitcher to stop the other team from scoring more runs than you can score with Braun in the lineup, let me tell you, you will be better off with Matsuzaka hands down. Without too much more opining, here is my top ten 2007 Rookie Class.

  

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka has absolutely electric stuff and I think it will translate into a great Strat-O-Matic card. There can be no doubt, after seeing him pitch last year, why the Red Sox sought him out so ardently. I initially thought they wanted him only to keep him out of the hands of the hated Yankees, but when they spent so much money just to talk to him and then spent another ton of cash to sign him, I was intrigued and waited with anticipation to see him pitch. I was not disappointed and I believe that anyone who drafts this player card in their 2008 SOM League Draft will likewise not be disappointed.

2. Ryan Braun goes here simply because I don't feel the same way about Lincecum that I do about Daisuke. Braun is a terrific player no doubt, and while I feel he could swap places with Daisuke easily, (either could be number one and number two overall on this list) that is where the top two ends. Braun had an absolutely teriffic rookie season and flat out surprised many people with his expression of power and run producing ability. Not only can he hit homeruns as evidenced by his 34 last year, he hits for average and hits the ball a ton all over the field.

3. Tim Lincecum looks younger than my six year old son, ok maybe not that young, but his fast ball is nearly unparalleled even among his fellow 23 year old players. My son has a few more years before he can throw a ball that fast. Anyway, Lincecum showed that he can pitch with control in the big leagues just as he did in his limited minor league experience. The only hangup I have about him, is that he doesn't have much experience yet and he is an unknown quantity. Time will tell, but if his rookie season with the Giants is any indication, and barring injury, Lincecum will be around a while and will pitch very well.

4. Hunter Pence came up quickly through the Astros farm system hitting the ball a ton at each stop along his way to the Show. Pence is an average fielder but may improve slightly in that department. His hitting is what will keep him in the lineup every day. Though he hit better against left handed pitching, he's no slouch against righties. Despite some injury issues last year, I don't think injuries will be a constant year in and year out thing as this guy is a pure athlete.

5. Jacoby Ellsbury has quite a bit of pop in his bat, just like Pence. And just like Pence Ellsbury came up quickly through the organization making his debut on the World Champion Red Sox at the end of June. Ellsbury made his mark hitting over .350 and showing a little bit of power, which is something he hadn't done a lot of in his short minor league stints.

6. Yovani Gallardo has shown a lot of the same skills as Lincecum but because he is a little younger I have placed him down here further on the list as he may need more vetting as a professional. Gallardo has a nice fastball and great off-speed stuff leading to his nearly 9 K/9IP ratio. Like Lincecum, barring injuries, Gallardo should pitch well for a while to come.

7. Alex Gordon will eventually be a fantastic third baseman whether he's still with the lowly Royals or if he has moved on to another team. He has a great swing and plays the hot corner like no-one I've seen in a while. He put up some prolific numbers in the minors in 2006 and despite a lackluster offensive performance in his rookie season, he will eventually hit around .290 with 25 plus homeruns every year and drive in over 100 runs.

8. Jeremy Guthrie is a pitcher I have been impressed with and watching for a couple of years. I saw him pitch with Cleveland in 2006 and while his stats over three years in Cleveland and the minors were less than impressive there is something about watching this young fella pitch that is special. He has decent control and just reminds me of a no-nonsense guy that will go out every fifth day and pitch his tail off to try to win a game for his team. I think the Indians gave up too early on Guthrie and I think he'll prove it with another good season in Baltimore.

9. Asdrubal Cabrera showed some talent with the bat when he came up late in the season for Cleveland. He shows good patience at the plate and a little bit of power despite not being a particularly physical specimen. Cabrera will likely continue to play second base full time for the Indians and will contribute to the team in one of the toughest divisions in Baseball.

10. Joba Chamberlain is, well, what can you say about his stats. They're just flat out impressive despite the lack of experience. Chamberlain will get more experience but you shouldn't expect that his card will look the same as it will this year with K after K after K. If his little bit of experience is any indication though, he should become a pretty good ballplayer.