VALID TIME... 16/1750Z-16/1930Z

CONCERNING... CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEING MONITORED

AREAS AFFECTED... CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK--NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PA. RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR THE SYR AREA WITH ADDITONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION SSW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NY. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO IS ENCROACHING REGION... WITH H5 50-60KNT SPEED MAX. MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /SBCAPE 1000-2000J/KG// AIDED BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5C/KM.

VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD FRONT.. HOWEVER AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ENTERS REGION -- THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE BOW STRUCTURES/SEGEMENTED LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

- WARNER 07162009