by MikeTait
Everyone wants a guaranteed way of
winning a jackpot
on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? that doesn't involve lots of
coughing. Well, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that a couple
of Swiss academics' have come up with a formula for sure-fire success. The
bad news is that the formula goes like this:
pn (j,k) = P {xn+l,s=k/Xn, s=j},jE kn, kE Kn+l
Even if you phoned all your friends, asked a dozen audiences
and went 50-50 - twice- you'd still be stuck. And the explanatory notes written
by mathematicians Robert Dalang and Violetta Bernyck in their paper, titled
How to Win Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?, are precious little help.
For instance, to win big a player needs to use the principles of 'stochastic
optimisation', say the pair from the Ecole Polytechnique Federale in
Lausanne. This they show in a series of charts, which apparently tell a player
when to answer a question, quit or use a lifeline.
The scientists do caution anyone attempting to win using their formula. 'We
should emphasise that there is no guarantee a player will win a large amount
of money,' said Mr Dalang. 'There is always a chance he will give an incorrect
answer and lose.' But he added: 'Our strategy does two things: It helps the
player decide when to use each lifeline; and it tells him whether it is worth
the risk to answer even if he is not completely sure.'
The team worked out the average amount a player can expect to win is
£16,000, while the chances of winning a £lmillion are one in 100.
After suffering a close call when major Charles Ingram won £l million
before his coughing con was discovered, TV chiefs are understandably cautious
where commenting on this new technique. 'In view of what happened in the
past, we do not comment on schemes designed to make people win more on the
show -for obvious reasons,' said a spokesman for programme maker
Celador. |
