According to Moore's law, which has been remarkably accurate over the last 20 years, computer power doubles every one and a half years. Ten years from now, computers should be over 64 times more powerful than they are now. So what will it mean? When considering the future like this both society and technology have to be considered.
First of all, the population ten years from now will likely be more computer savvy than today. Given that this should also be the same generation of young adults who could successfully program today's VCRs, it's probably a good thing. Ten years from now, people will likely view computers with less idealism and more pragmatics (or perhaps more cynicism). The most noticeable result will be that they will make even less enthusiastic predictions of the state of computers in the following decade. The next noticeable result, which is probably good news, will be that they will view basic computer literacy as a social necessity. They will think it quite ordinary for people to be so closely involved with them, just like how it was once normal to have servants working in a middle-class household. The bad news will be that the computer knowledge will be so devalued that the typical computer science degree will be derided like today's social science, liberal arts and philosophy degrees.
Ten years ago, the focus was on remote audio and video applications on demand. Looking at the Internet and the abundance of downloadable and streaming files, it is safe to say that this demand was pretty much fulfilled. Today the focus is on mobility and pervasiveness. Combining the vastness of the Internet, with the mobility of the cell phone and the ordinariness of a digital clock.
Applications using this technology would be things like rooms that perform custom actions for human users, like adjust the temperature or lighting. Human users would be able to make simple verbal commands to the room or the building and it would be able to delegate responsibility of that task to the appropriate objects in the room.
What would I most like to see in the future? Well some of today's top most popular applications of technology are short message services for communication, things that make our lives easier and more convenient, games for novelty and fun, and pornography. Honda has already unveiled a prototype robot that can walk. Maytag has already made rather reliable dishwashing appliances. Another company has made already made anatomically correct life-sized dolls with highly realistic life-like skin. Combine any of the above two with a subservient but believable human imitating AI that accepts voice commands and you got the killer app of the twenty-tens!
Your predictions that ordinary people will be closely involved with computers and that mobile and pervasive computing will be the industry focus seem very reasonable given today's trends. Now, I'm a little suspicious about your killer app… True many people would love an obedient, walking, talking intimacy-ready dishwasher, but I don't think I'd run out to buy one! One topic we didn't discuss in this course was the ethics of artificial intelligence. There is a lot of fiction which deals with ethical issues which might arise should we create "intelligent" machines (whether they have real intelligence, or only seem to be intelligent). Two examples which come to mind are Isaac Asimov's robot series and the movie AI. There is also quite a bit of work by Daniel Dennett, Marvin Minsky etc. If you haven't already, you might be interested in browsing though some of it sometime!
I've really enjoyed all your creative examples and unconventional ideas in your commentaries this term! Thanks!
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