Hey Musharraf: What about Baluchistan?

The Pakistani case for Kashmir no longer rests on religion; the Bengali rebellion and secession in 1971 did that argument in. It now rests upon the more exalted principle of self-determination. That is what their friends abroad and in India wax eloquent about. The Pakistanis no longer harp about Indian perfidies in Junagadh and Hyderabad. Free elections, full integration and the sheer fact of Hindus being the major community in these two onetime princely states has put paid to that. But Kashmir still dogs us. It is predominantly Muslim and the demand for self-determination has us confused. Isn't that what democracy is all about? 

But the irony is that Pakistan is the champion of self-determination when its own people do not enjoy any democratic rights. The three pillars upon which the Pakistani State rests are Allah, Army and America. The people of Pakistan do not figure in this scheme at all. The Pakistani leaders want a diplomatic engagement with us on Jammu and Kashmir again. Their prime minister has once again donned the cloak of democracy that hangs outside General Pervez Musharraf's bunker. But we must not shirk from talking about self-determination with them. It is two edged and cuts both ways. Let us take the case of Baluchistan. 

The Pakistani province of Baluchistan is a mountainous desert area of about 3.5 lakh sq kms and has a population of over 7.5 million or about as much as Jammu and Kashmir's population. It borders Iran, Afghanistan and its southern boundary is the Arabian Sea with the strategically important port of Gwadar on the Makran coast commanding approach to the Straits of Hormuz. Quetta is the capital of Baluchistan. The population consists mainly of Baluch and Pathans. Like the Kurds, the Baluch are also a people ignored by the makers of modern political geography. There is an Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan spread over an area of 1.82 lakh sq kms and with a population of over 2.5 million. Its capital is Zahedan.

Through most of their history the Baluch administered themselves as a loose tribal confederacy. The Baluch are an ancient people. In 325 BC, after his abortive India campaign, as Alexander made his way back to Babylon through the Makran desert, the Greeks suffered greatly at the hands of marauding Baluchis. The legend has it that they originally came from near Aleppo in Syria and there is much linguistic evidence to suggest that they belong to the same Indo-European sub-group as the Persians and Kurds. They came into Islam under the shadow of the sword of Mohammad bin Qasim's conquering Arab army in 711 AD. 

Whatever be their origins, by 1000 AD they were well settled in their present homeland. The poet Firdausi records them in the Persian epic, the Book of Kings, thus: 'Heroic Baluches and Kuches we saw/Like battling rams all determined on war.' As relatively late arrivals in the region, the Baluchis had to battle earlier occupants of the lands such as the Brahui tribes who still abound around Kalat. The Brahui language belongs to the Dravidian family of languages and is close to Tamil. Quite clearly, the Brahuis are the only Dravidian survivors in northern India, after the Aryan invasion. 

A restless people, the Baluchis naturally pushed eastwards towards the more fertile regions watered by the Indus river, but were halted by the might of the Mughals. But we still have reminders of the many Baluchi incursions in the names of towns like Dera Ghazi Khan and Dera Ismail Khan in the Punjab and NWFP. Unlike the Dravidians of Mohenjodaro and Harappa who disappeared without a trace, the Brahuis made one last hurrah when they asserted their power in Kalat. 

By the 18th century Kalat was the dominant power in Baluchistan and the Khan of Kalat was the ruler of the entire region. But the Brahuis paid for it by getting assimilated into the majority Baluchis. The Brahui language still survives in small pockets but only by just. My late father who served in British India's Defence Services Staff College at Quetta in the early 1940s would often tell me of hearing local tribesmen serving in the Staff College speaking a language that sounded remarkably like Tamil!

The British first came to the region in 1839 on their way to Kabul when they sought safe passage. In 1841 they entered into a treaty with Kalat. In the wake of Lord Auckland's disastrous invasion of Afghanistan, the British annexed Sind in a mood, Mountstuart Elphinstone said, was that 'of a bully who had been kicked in the streets and then goes home to beat the wife in revenge!' The British annexed Sind in 1843 from the Talpur Mirs, a Baluchi dynasty. 

On June 27, 1839 Ranjit Singh died and within 10 years his great prophecy on being shown a map with British possessions in India in 'ek din sab laal ho jayega!' came to be true. After the formal surrender of the Sikhs on March 29, 1849 and the annexation of Punjab, the British now had a long border with the Baluchis. But learning from their disastrous experience with the Afghans they preferred to keep out of harm's way on Baluchi assurances of the inviolability of their borders.

In 1876, the British however forced another treaty on the Baluchis and forced the Khan of Kalat to lease salubrious Quetta to them. The Khan's writ still ran over Baluchistan, but now under the watchful but benign eye of a British minister. That the Khan of Kalat was not considered another insignificant prince was in the fact that he was accorded a 19-gun salute. With security assured and largely unfettered domestic power the Khan led lavish and often eccentric lifestyles. One Khan collected shoes, and to ensure the safety of his collection had all the left shoes locked in a deep dungeon of his fort in Kalat!

Whatever the whimsicalities of the Khans of Kalat, like the rulers of Hyderabad and Kashmir, they enjoyed the greatest degree of autonomy possible under the system established by the British as long as whimsy was within reason and not inimical to British interests. This arrangement prevailed till 1947. The urge to be independent rulers burned equally bright in all three of them. The Khan of Kalat, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, went further than Hari Singh of Kashmir and Osman Ali Khan of Hyderabad. He declared independence, while the other two dithered and allowed events to overtake them. Unlike in Hyderabad, it was apparent that the population largely supported the Khan. 

The Baluchis, like the Pathans of NWFP, were not too enthused with the idea of Pakistan. In the NWFP the separatist Muslim League led by Mohammed Ali Jinnah was actually rejected in elections. Yet eight months after the Khan's assertion of independence the Pakistanis forcibly annexed Baluchistan. But Baluchi aspirations for an independent state were not quelled completely. In 1973 a war of independence broke out in Baluchistan.

For five long years there was total war. At its peak the Baluchis raised a force of 55,000 combatants. Nearly six Pakistan Army divisions were deployed to fight them. The Pakistan Air Force was also deployed and its Mirage and Sabre fighter jets carried out strikes all over rural Baluchistan. Widespread use of napalm has been documented by scholars like Robert Wirsing of the University of Texas and Selig Harrison. Iran too joined in the military action and Huey Cobra helicopter gunships of its Army Aviation were widely used. By the time the last pitched battle was fought in 1978 5,000 Baluchi fighters and 3,000 Pakistani soldiers had died. Civilian casualties were many times that. The Baluchi war for independence was crushed, but the aspirations still flicker.

Speaking at the 57th session of the Commission of Human Rights at Geneva between March 9 and April 27, 2001, Mehran Baluch, a prominent Baluch leader said: 'Our tragedy began in 1947, immediately after the creation of Pakistan. The colonialist army of Pakistani Punjab forcibly occupied Kalat at gunpoint.' Even now a struggle continues in Baluchistan. Leading Baluchi leaders like Sardar Attaullah Mengal, Sardar Mahmood Khan Achakzai and Nawab Khair Baksh Marri, heads of the three great Baluch clans, have been leading protests over the economic exploitation of the region's great natural resources to the exclusion of the local people. Marri and hundreds of his supporters are under arrest. 

Till 1977 the Indira Gandhi government actively worked for the democratic aspirations of the Baluchis and Pathans. Baluchi fighters were trained in the deserts of Rajasthan. We also provided them with financial and diplomatic assistance. With Bangladesh free, Indira Gandhi reckoned that Sind, Baluchistan and Pakhtunistan should follow. 

After her electoral defeat in 1977, Vajpayee as the Janata government's foreign minister made his first misguided and woolly-headed attempt to normalize relations with Pakistan. We now remember Lahore as his first, but that is not correct. Indian support to various movements struggling for self-determination in Punjabi-dominated Pakistan was withdrawn. L K Advani was as much a comrade in arms then as he is now for he did not protest even when G M Syed's Jiye Sind movement was betrayed. He was quite pleased with being able to go to his hometown of Karachi and visit his old school. 

Vajpayee's assurances to Zia, the man who initiated the policy of 'death by a thousand cuts' to destroy India, ensured that the Baluchis were forced to leave their camps in Rajasthan and all financial, military and diplomatic assistance was cut. Even though the Janata Party regime did not last very long, the damage was done. Now the Pakistanis want to talk to us about self-determination.Musharraf: What about Baluchistan?

India can Surpass China 

India can overtake China as an economic power despite losing on foreign investment front as New Delhi's reliance on its own resources will ensure more sustainable progress to enable it to surpass Beijing, says a study.

"India is not outperforming China overall, but it is doing better in certain key areas and that success may enable it to catch up with and perhaps even overtake China," Yasheng Huang, associate professor at Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Tarun Khanna, professor at Harvard Business School have said in a study in the recent issue of Foreign Policy.

"Indeed, by relying primarily on organic growth, India is making a fuller use of its resources and has chosen a path that may well deliver more sustainable progress than China's FDI-driven approach," they said.

"Can India surpass China was no longer a silly question," they said ..If it turns out that India has indeed made a wiser bet, the implications for China's future growth and for how policy experts think about economic development generally could be enormous". Noting that the Chinese FDI was more its Diaspora generated, they said "in the process, India has managed to spawn a number of companies that now compete internationally with Europe and the United States".

Drawing a comparison between the two Chinese provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu which were at similar levels of economic development, they said while Zhejiang laid more emphasis on indigenous entrepreneurs and organic development while Jiangsu relied largely on FDI, the former was more prosperous after 20 years.

India Don’t Despair about Democracy

We have, unlike China, the enterprise of Dhirubhais and Narayana Murthys 

The lives, the aspirations, the dreams, the fears, the joys and the toils of 1.3 billion citizens of the People’s Republic of China are conveyed everyday to over a billion Indians by one reporter of the Press Trust of India in Beijing. Period. And we say we have been civilisational neighbours for ages! 

So it was not surprising to see so many in Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s entourage to China going there for the first time and sending news despatches like they discovered a new planet! Discovering Pudong, the new extension of Shanghai, five years after it officially came into being, is excusable. But trying to unravel the secret of China’s growth a decade after the world came to take note of it? We have a right to be better informed. 

If you can count the number of Indian journalists reporting daily from China on one finger, you can count the number of Indian sinologists on one hand, if one were to exclude the government’s China hands, in service or retired. Where are the funds that can send Indian scholars regularly to China? Where is the investment in the study of that country that makes it attractive for a young Indian to learn the language and dedicate her life to a career in sinology? So we continue to view our neighbour largely from western eyes?

 The sterile and dated debate on whether it is democracy or dictatorship that makes all the difference between China and India came up again during Vajpayee’s visit and many who felt apologetic about India’s less impressive economic performance came back with the view that a little bit of dictatorship may not be such a bad thing after all. And this, 28 years after the Emergency! 

India may well have paid an economic price for democracy and may do so for some time, but that is the only political system that can define this Republic and our nation. India is India because it is a pluralistic, secular democracy. Anyone who tries to alter that, either the pluralism or the secularism, will be responsible not just for killing democracy but our nation as we have come to know it over the past century. So don’t waste your time with the democracy debate. 

Consider the upside of democracy. Pluralism and free enterprise. Yasheng Huang of the Sloan School of Management at MIT and Tarun Khanna at Harvard Business School have done that in the latest issue of the prestigious strategic affairs journal, Foreign Policy (July-August 2003). In their essay “Can India Overtake China?”, they hypothesise that what makes India really different from China is private enterprise, homegrown! The Mahatma called it “homespun”! The sahukar, not the cautious one that finance minister Jaswant Singh said he learnt his business economics from in his childhood in Rajasthan, but the “uncautious sahukar”, the risk-taking entrepreneur like the late Dhirubhai Ambani, whose first death anniversary was commemorated yesterday. 

India has its Ambanis, Brars, Narayana Murthys, Anji Reddys and Venu Srinivasans and many more “entrepreneurs”. China has foreign multinationals. Of course, there is the Chinese diaspora that has made a major difference in manufacturing, but the Indian diaspora is making the difference in services. Over time, the two should cancel each other out, with the Indian diaspora finally contributing to India what the Chinese diaspora has to China. When that external fillip is accounted for, India still has the advantage of a hundred years of private enterprise that makes its presence known every now and then in one way or another. 

An Ambani in the 1980s, a Narayana Murthy in the 1990s, a Venu Srinivasan in the 2000s. Yasheng and Khanna place emphasis on “entrepreneurship” over “investment”. Investment can be made by nationals or foreigners, by the state or by multinationals, but entrepreneurship is driven by individuals who are the product of a system that encourages the freedom of enterprise. It’s a very Schumpeterian view of industrial development, and a credible one. Make no mistake, Yasheng and Khanna recognise that China has done better than India in recent years and all the statistics show that to be the case. The question they pose is: What next? The Chinese model of industrial development, they suggest, is “top-down”, with the state and foreign investors doing all the investment.

 The Indian approach has been “bottom-up”, with domestic enterprise being at the cutting edge. Conclude Yasheng and Khanna, “China and India have pursued radically different development strategies. India is not outperforming China overall, but it is doing better in certain key areas. That success may enable it to catch up with and perhaps even overtake China. Should that prove to be the case, it will not only demonstrate the importance of homegrown entrepreneurship to long-term economic development; but it will show the limits of the foreign direct investment (FDI) dependent approach China is pursuing”. 

Those who see government policy having stifled industrial growth in the pre-liberalisation era don’t give credit for the entrepreneurship it fostered. Even the public enterprise and small scale reservation policy fostered first generation enterprise. But when the policy served its “greenhouse” role, the time had come for an opening up to the forces of competition and that is what the Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh policies of the early 1990s enabled. 

Indian enterprise was a product of the “greenhouse” of protected industrialisation but learnt that survival depended on global competitive ability. China acquired that ability by mixing multinational enterprise with cheap yet skilled labour. India can utilise the same endowment with local enterprise. It is this “creative enterprise” that will take India forward. What the government must do is to create and foster a policy environment, including investment in education at all levels, in infrastructure, in both rural and urban areas, so that domestic enterprise can blossom further. This is not to suggest that we must shut foreign enterprise out. Far from it. India can benefit from more FDI, and must seek more of it in the infrastructure sector, to be able to create an environment conducive to accelerated economic growth.

Not an Advisable Advisory

The day the United States government decided to launch a military campaign against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, an American investor called his fund manager in London and told him, ‘‘get my money out of India’’. The surprised fund manager advised his client not to panic. ‘‘Your money is safe in one of India’s brightest blue chip companies located in Bangalore several thousand kilometres south of Afghanistan. You don’t have to worry.’’ 

The client was not convinced, ‘‘Look, I don’t care about geography. I know something about making money. Right? Now, either you get my money out of the region or I’ll send you an atlas!’’ One more investor had flown out of a ‘risky emerging market’. This is a true story, from October 2001. ‘‘Sentiment is all in the markets,’’ lamented this fund manager, worrying at the time that ‘‘India may be going out of fashion’’.

His pessimism was not entirely justified. As statistics put out by the Union government’s ministry of industry show encouragingly, foreign investment into India increased by over 60 per cent since September 11. Only last week, Japan’s Osamu Suzuki flew down to New Delhi with a cheque for a thousand crore to boost his stake in the automobile company, Maruti Udyog Limited. But then, these are uncertain times and the persistence of tension in the region has once again turned market sentiment negative. 

Last fortnight, the stock market felt the impact of this uncertainty for days as the sensex slipped with every statement about India seeking a decisive end to Pakistan’s proxy war. This week the market may well react excessively to the news over the weekend that the US government has advised its citizens not to travel to India and has advised those already in India to get out. Is the government ready with its response to this psywar? 

It is not clear to what extent the US government travel advisory is motivated by genuine fear of a widespread conflagration in South Asia, including possible terrorist attacks directed against US targets, and to what extent it is aimed at exerting psychological pressure on policymakers in the region to reduce tensions. While the travel advisory is cautiously worded and suggests that American citizens ‘‘defer travel to India ... particularly to all border areas between India and Pakistan including the Indian states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab, and the state of Jammu and Kashmir’’, it urges ‘‘American citizens currently in India to depart the country’’. 

India is a continental country. Asking Americans to get out of border states, given the prospect of a war with Pakistan, is one thing. Asking them to leave India is an exaggerated response. It would be interesting to check out if the US government urged all Americans to leave the European Union when its forces joined the hostilities in the Balkans! If not, the current travel advisory, and reports suggesting that there could be an airlift of all Americans out of India, may be viewed as psychological tactics aimed at influencing policy options in the region. The market must then discount the advisory for what it is intended to be. 

The travel advisory was not the first instrument of a possible psywar campaign. The scenario building on a nuclear conflagration in the region appears equally orchestrated. All manner of commentators and analysts have been creeping out of the Washington DC think tank woodwork to paint grim scenarios of armageddon in South Asia. If Pakistan was unable to resort to nuclear blackmail during Kargil, why does the U.S. take Pakistan’s nuclear threat more seriously now, that too when U.S. troops are present on Pakistan soil? 

More to the point, the mobilisation of Indian armed forces to exert pressure against cross-border terrorism in the region is being projected as an Indian offensive against Pakistan when in fact it is nothing more than an aspect of the campaign against terrorism, in pursuit of which the United States has also deployed troops in the region. If the Bush administration treats India and Pakistan even-handedly in this confrontation, viewing the problem as a bilateral dispute over Kashmir, it would be missing the wood for the trees. 

The attempts at raising the spectre of a nuclear conflict, the travel advisory that is undoubtedly going to hurt market and investor sentiment, which in turn will hurt India rather than help, are counter-productive at a time when both the US and India have the same objective of weakening the forces of jehadi terrorism in the region. Indeed, even General Pervez Musharraf says he is committed to this cause. 

If this is so, then any attempt at turning Jammu and Kashmir into a Talibanised Afghanistan, a haven for jehadi terrorists and mercenaries from across the world, serves neither the interests of India nor of Pakistan, nor indeed any of the other major powers in the region, namely the US, Russia and China. India’s current military posture aimed at exerting pressure on the present regime in Pakistan to give up the path of globalised jehadism and its immediate manifestation in Jammu and Kashmir should be strengthened by all nations battling terrorism. 

To pressure India at this stage with misplaced anxiety about a nuclear conflagration, and excessive nervousness about the safety of American citizens and property in the rest of this subcontinental nation cannot help strengthen the campaign against terrorism. Rather, it would appear as if the US has become a victim of Pakistani nuclear blackmail, retreating under that pressure from the campaign against terrorism. If India and the US were to begin quarrelling today, who in the region will be laughing all the way to the next target of terrorist attack? 

The US should immediately put an end to its psywar against India and widen the campaign against terrorism. The issue at heart is not the future of Kashmir, it is the future of the world. 

Intimations of Greatness: The challenge of realizing India’s Potential 

When Spiderman’s uncle Ben realises that his nephew has acquired supernatural powers he has a word of sage advice for his energetic and eager nephew: ‘‘With great power comes great responsibility.’’ Spiderman’s guiding principle has become a leitmotif of strategic policy thinking in the United States, particularly after 9/11, and may come to haunt the Bush Administration as it grapples with the challenge posed by Saddam Hussein. 

Trying to articulate the responsibilities of a ‘great power’ in the post-9/11 world, US President George Bush Jr published last week a policy document under presidential seal entitled ‘The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.’ The document sets out a new policy paradigm of ‘pre-emption’, as opposed to deterrence, which is to guide US security strategy in the near term. 

Unlike the fate of a similar document prepared in India by the National Security Advisory Board that must be gathering dust in some governmental almirah marked ‘secret’, the US president’s strategy paper is available free for anyone who wants to read it on the internet at www.globalsecurity.org. 

Apart from offering an overview of US international strategy, especially in the campaign against terrorism and the use of weapons of mass destruction, and apart from enunciating important principles with respect to the defence of democracy and of free markets and free trade, the presidential paper also paints a picture of the world today as the US sees it. 

The interesting novelty here for Indian readers is the fact that for the first time a US presidential paper gives its imprimatur to the Henry Kissinger view of India as a ‘potential’ Great Power. Kissinger expressed the view in 1994 that the 21st century would have five or six great powers: The US, European Union, Russia, China, Japan and, ‘probably India’.

Years later, in a more recent book on US foreign policy, Kissinger repeated this formulation without removing the prefix, even though India had become a declared nuclear power in 1998. When asked what in his view it would take even nuclear India to rid itself of his prefix, his answer was categorical: a larger economy and greater economic engagement with the world and the ability to realise the strategic potential of that economic power. 

A competitive economy is the foundation of power in the modern world. India has not yet completed the task of building that foundation. Hence there is considerable distance to be covered before we can claim ‘great power’ status, even of the kind China now enjoys as a trading power. The Bush paper, therefore, quite understandably still refers to India, in fact along with China, as a ‘potential great power’. 

While the first reference to India in the Bush strategy document is in the context of South Asia wherein the US underscores the need for India and Pakistan to ‘resolve their disputes’, and the Bush Administration draws attention to the fact that it has ‘invested time and resources building strong bilateral relations with India and Pakistan’, the only other reference to Pakistan is in the context of the ‘war against terror’. India finds further mention on its own, with no further reference to the P-word! That is a message we have to internalise. To be able to view ourselves in the world without reference to our adversaries. 

India figures in the chapter on cooperative action with ‘Other Main Centres of Global Power’. ‘‘We are attentive to the possible renewal of old patterns of great power competition’’ says the strategy paper, ‘‘Several potential great powers are now in the midst of internal transition — most importantly Russia, India, and China. In all three cases, recent developments have encouraged our hope that a truly global consensus about basic principles is slowly taking shape.’’ Listing out common areas of interest between the US and India, including the ‘‘free flow of commerce through the vital sea lanes of the Indian ocean’’, the fight against terrorism, defence of democracy and ‘‘creating a strategically stable Asia’’, the paper admits to differences on India’s nuclear programme and the ‘pace of economic reforms’. 

However, the paper says, ‘‘while in the past these concerns may have dominated our thinking about India, today we start with a view of India as a growing world power with which we have common strategic interests. Through a strong partnership with India, we can best address any differences and shape a dynamic future.’’One area of difference which is going to engage the two countries in the near term is multilateral trade policy. The Union commerce ministry is holding on to the fiction that a new round of trade negotiations has not yet been launched. Bush’s strategy paper, on the other hand, not only refers to the ‘‘new global trade negotiations... (launched) at Doha... ’’ but says that its ‘ambitious agenda’ covering trade liberalisation in manufacturing, services and agriculture is scheduled for completion by 2005. 

Going beyond multilateral trade liberalisation, the Bush doctrine is pushing for greater action in regional free trade agreements and bilateral free trade agreements. Apart from a Free Trade Association of the Americas, an Asian Free Trade Area, including China, Japan, Korea and ASEAN is taking shape. What about India? 

Unless we come to terms with the political challenge of globalisation and the challenge of sustained economic growth, the Kissingerian prefix of our ‘probably’ being a Great Power will linger longer than even our ill-wishers presume. Sustained high rates of more equitable economic growth and domestic political and social stability are essential requirements of national power. If growth falters, if political and social divisiveness becomes pronounced, not even our most ardent well-wishers will be able to help us.For precisely this reason, those who do not wish to see India regain its glory will do their best to disrupt the social and political stability that is required for our economic progress. Must we help them with our acts of ommission and commission? 

Doing our own Thing 

Be it a unipolar or multipolar global system, India’s challenge is at home

Sometime in the mid-nineties, film maker Kumar Shahani came to see me to urge me to write an editorial against an attempt by the United States of America to bring global trade in cinema under the aegis of the World Trade Organisation. ‘‘I have just returned from Paris,’’ Shahani told me, ‘‘and the French are very worried about American cultural hegemony. Free trade in cinema will mean the global domination of Hollywood. India must join France in opposing this.’’ 

I reflected on Shahani’s concerns and researched the matter and, after a few days, proceeded to write an editorial comment that would not have pleased him. The French film industry may feel threatened by Hollywood, I conceded, but Indian film makers must seek free international trade in cinema. Given the global dispersion of the Indian diaspora and the cross-cultural appeal of Indian cinema in large parts of Africa and Asia, the Indian film industry will benefit from open market access and a multilateral regime in cinema trade. 

European arguments against American dominance are always appealing but India, like China or any large civilisational entity, must take an independent view of global developments. Those who lament alleged Indian equivocation on US invasion of Iraq must recall that on similar occasions in the past, be it the Soviet invasion of Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) and Afghanistan (1979) or US aggression in Viet Nam and Latin America, successive Indian governments have taken ambivalent postures in public, unless India’s vital national interests were involved, as when China invaded Viet Nam (1979). 

Indian ambivalence, sometimes couched in non-aligned rhetoric, was always on account of the fact that each government of the day gave priority to national interest, seeking diplomatic space to pursue the agenda of national economic development. As so many political economists have written over the years, the bipolarity of the Cold War era gave developing countries like India space in which to focus on national development. Diplomatic postures on international events were less often based on universal principles and more often meant to secure a wider margin for policy manoeuvre. 

As much was conceded by non-other than the guru of realism Henry Kissinger who told an Indian audience once how he was summoned by US President John Kennedy to the White House to explain a particular Indian position and he told Kennedy that he thought a US president would do exactly what the Indian prime minister was doing, pursuing national interest. Kissinger repeated this analysis to President Clinton when India went nuclear and said the Indian prime minister was doing what he had to, while the US president had to do what he had to! 

Grandstanding in the United Nations and empty pulpitry is not going to alter the logic of recent global developments. The US has emerged as the world’s most powerful military, economic, scientific, technological and cultural power that is also resource rich and has solved the problem of population size through a skill-based immigration policy aimed at attracting the best and brightest from across the world with a capacity to absorb them socially with a policy of multiculturalism. Europe has been unable to cope on all these counts. 

Never before in history has one nation combined all the attributes of power. But my guru in strategic policy, K. Subrahmanyam, the Bhishmapithamaha of the Indian strategic policy community, adds a caveat. It is true that the US combines all aspects of power, he says, but it has not and no nation has yet acquired a monopoly on wisdom! What the US lacks is the wisdom to deploy its power, and that is manifest in recent events. In this lies hope for others. Indeed, every empire has crumbled due to a paucity of wisdom within rather than the unity of opposition without. 

We may lack many attributes of power but mercifully our political leadership has so far demonstrated wisdom in dealing with external challenges. Even in the present international crisis we have pursued a considered and careful strategy that should serve our national interest well. One often wishes equal wisdom is summoned in dealing with challenges at home.Wisdom we have, and perhaps more than some others. However, our weakness remains in our inability to as yet acquire the other facets of power, especially economic. Therein lies the challenge for India. 

Irrespective of the military and political outcome of the Iraq war, the US will remain the world’s most powerful nation for some time to come. The only nations that will be able to challenge its supremacy will be those who are able to acquire these various facets of power. A multipolar world cannot be built on rhetoric at the UN or by sloganeering against the US. The transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar one will be based on the greater regional dispersal of the attributes of modern power. The question for us is what are we doing to acquire these attributes? Economic and human development, scientific and technological capability, industrial competitiveness, cultural liberalism and multicultural politics, an open and internally stable and free society. 

It is only when other nations acquire these attributes of American power that US supremacy will be weakened and the world will be truly multipolar. We must stop worrying about whether the world will be unipolar or multipolar as a consequence of US unilateralism today. Irrespective of the global balance of power, India’s real challenge and opportunity remains at home. 

Accelerated economic development, within the framework of a liberal political system, an open society that fosters the growth of knowledge-based development, and the ability of the government to raise the financial resources needed to invest in economic capabilities and infrastructure and, at the same time, in defence and military power. Such is the foundation on which individual nations can enable the emergence of a multipolar world. Raving and ranting against Pax Americana isn’t going to help! Consider why a veto-power like China remains so coy abroad and is busy at home pushing for more economic growth! 

All States should follow TN Example

Lauding the Tamil Nadu government’s ordinance on conversions, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu today advised all BJP state governements to enact laws patterned on the Tamil Nadu ordinance to prevent conversions by force, allurement or fraud.Regarding the Centre, he said: ‘‘It is an NDA Government. I am advising BJP governments.’’ However, he demanded that the Congress spell out its objections to the ordinance. ‘‘The Congress has to tell the country why is it opposed to the ordinance. Does it support conversions?’’ 

Moving on to Gujarat, the state that he visited recently, Naidu demanded an early announcement of an election schedule ‘‘to end the present state of uncertainty.’’Speaking at a press conference, he said any delay on the EC’s part in announcing the poll-schedule would amount to a negation of the people’s fundamental right to choose a government of their choice. 

When asked if he was trying to pressure the EC to hold early elections in Gujarat, he retorted: ‘‘Can anybody pressure the EC?’’ ‘‘People are in the mood to teach a lesson to the so-called pseudo-secularists who have brought a bad name to the state.‘‘The party’s central leadership is more than impressed with the response from people at various levels in the state.’’ 

On whether he was worried that any delay would undermine the BJP’s prospects, Naidu said: ‘‘We are neither hurried nor worried. I am only concerned as a political party .’’Naidu criticised the Congress for raking up a controversy over ‘‘everything’’ with the latest being the visit of President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam to Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee’s residence for lunch. 

Saffron debut likely in Christian domain 

The saffron brigade’s maiden entry into this Christian state looks a certainty as the coalition of four Opposition parties, including the BJP, emerge a strong force against the ruling Congress.In a race that increasingly promises a photo finish between Congress and the Nagaland People’s Front-led coalition, the BJP has little to lose. The party’s fielding of 38 candidates in the 60-seat Assembly is an expression of over enthusiasm. But even the few odd seats it is sure to win should be a boon.

The most prominent among BJP’s line up is Hokishe Sema from Dimapur-I. There are other coalition partners in the fray but the contest is primarily between this former chief minister and the Congress. Another prospective seat is Alongtaki where the BJP and the INC are pitted in a straight fight. Here, BJP’s Tiameren seems ahead of Congressman Saku Aier.If BJP’s entry into this Christian-dominated state is an interesting sidelight, the focus of this election is on the NPF candidate from Northern Angami-II, Neiphi-U Rio. Described as the CM-in-waiting, Rio had resigned from the S.C. Jamir Cabinet as Home Minister in September, 2002. 

In an exclusive to The Indian Express, Rio said he had to quit as he had serious differences with Jamir on the Naga issue. He showed a booklet by the Nagaland PCC president that points out ‘‘the falseness of the claim that Nagas were of an independent nation since time immemorial’’. ‘‘This is an insult to Nagas,’’ he says.If Rio is to lead from the front, the Opposition thinktank include leaders like Vizol, yet another former Nagaland CM who was summoned to Bangkok twice last year by the Isaak and Muivah factions of the NSCN.

‘‘The NPF is going to form the government,’’ he says, admitting that in theory the Opposition does not stand a chance. ‘‘My experience says the votes won’t split. Jamir is out.’’That the Congress is on a sticky wicket becomes evident when its front- ranking leaders put the victory margin at four to five seats. ‘‘It’s going to be 32-28 or 31-29 in favour of Congress,’’ says Talilemba, the DCC general secretary at Mokokchung, Jamir’s home district. Elsewhere, too, Congress leaders predict a similar margin

I admit, India is bigger, stronger: Jamali

Pakistan Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali wants to improve relations with India.

"Why should I have a hostile neighbour? A country that is stronger than us, a country that is bigger than us. These are the facts and we have to admit that," he told the BBC World, in its programme Question Time Pakistan.But he refused to compromise on the Kashmir issue.

"As far as I am concerned, Kashmir is the lifeline. It's not just a political issue; it's an economic issue too. It's lifeline as far as Pakistan is concerned and we have to keep that right in front of us and then decide," he said.

"I am a person who does not compromise on principles. Issues, we can compromise on ... The major principle between India and Pakistan is Kashmir. That is the principle. On principle, you cannot compromise. On issues, you can," he said.Replying to a question on New Delhi's claim that Pakistan is not stopping cross-border infiltration, Jamali said, "They've been saying it for years and years. Pakistan has vast borders and with all the military might India has put on those borders, even then they are saying that we are still crossing over. Doesn't make sense at all." 

At times, Jamali claimed such instances happen without any connivance as far as Pakistan is concerned. "We have said very openly that we do not have training camps, we do not send people across, we have nothing to do with the whole structure, but the moral help has been there with the Kashmiris. They have suffered a lot... India is very far ahead as far as the media is concerned so it tries to convince people; they try to depict their point of view, which we have not been able to cover. We shall try to do that," he said.

Chinese Media's Mixed Reaction's on Vajpayee's Visit

While in India the headlines are screaming the announcement of major steps forward in the resolution of the decades-old Sino-India border dispute -- with gaggles of journalists furiously analysing every nuance and every scrap of information available about the joint declarations signed by the two premiers on Monday evening -- the Chinese media is suffering from comparative verbal constipation.

The lead story of the June 24 edition of China Daily appeared at first sight to be encouraging. The headline in bold type proclaimed that the two countries had endorsed a historical declaration. The text of the story, however, only made a one-line reference to the agreement on the 'Declaration on Principles for Relations and Comprehensive Co-operation.'

This was followed by a slightly detailed but equally bland description of the 'nine documents on co-operation in economics, law, science and technology and culture,' that were signed earlier on Monday, none of which had much real significance (barring a provision that would enable easy export of Indian mangoes to China).

There was no mention at all about the declaration on expanding border trade. Sikkim was missing completely from the report.Xinhua, the national news agency, went a step further, doing away with the adjective 'historic.' It led with a simple 'China, India sign declaration on bilateral ties'. The text of the story comprised 91 words, dwarfed by a large photograph of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Premier Wen Jiaboa shaking hands.

The report made no mention of borders, trade or Sikkim. It did, however, mention tersely that "the Indian government has for the first time recognised, in an explicit way, Tibet Autonomous Region as part of China's territory."This morsel of information was a product of the frenzied speculation by several Indian analysts of the significance and probable content of the joint agreement on border trade, the details of which will only be available later on Tuesday evening.

Is the Indian media then making much ado about nothing?

It has ocassionally been suggested that this visit means more to India. That India is the needy one and any improvement in bilateral ties will benefit her more than her larger, economically stronger neighbour. Could this be the reason why the Chinese media is treating the prime minister's visit politely, but briefly? Or is it the difference between a free press and one that is shackled by government control?

At the university in Beijing, where I teach news writing and reporting, my first and most difficult task has been to explain the concept of 'news.' In Chinese the word for propaganda, zhuan bo, is a neutral one. So, the Ministry for Information is often translated as the ministry for propaganda without a trace of irony.When asked to write an essay on the role of the media, several of my students churned out pieces that started with 'The press is the mouthpiece of the government.' The essays were also full of sentences like 'the government should do more propaganda on SARS' and the like.

While in recent times some Chinese language media, particularly those dealing with economic issues, have begun to attempt a more investigative and critical style, the majority of mainstream media are kept on a tight leash, reduced to writing government press releases and faithfully reproducing platitudes mouthed by party leaders.Until the prime ministerial visit is officially over and the party leardership has had the time to analyse and edit the outcome, we can expect no truly analytical or thoughtful contribution from the media here. Not so different from our own Doordarshan a decade or so ago. 

How soon then will the mediascape in China change? It is difficult to say. The Chinese government faces tremendous contradictions as it liberalises the economy, yet refuses to reform politically. Foreign investors are increasingly demanding free access to reliable information. However, to allow this, would cut away at one of the primary means by which the Communist Party retains its legitimacy.

Post-SARS, the media has been reporting on certain issues more freely than before. In fact, the government ordered them to do so. Over the last couple of months then, the self-congratulatory, morale boosting toasts to the progress of China and sagacity of its leaders have started to be tempered by gloomier messages of the need for health care reforms and growing unemployment.

But even bad news is selected and endorsed by the ruling party. Several editors of some of the more outspoken papers have been sacked over the last few months. Until there is genuine political reform, media freedom will remain elusive, and until then visits like that of the Indian prime minister will continue to be portrayed more by visuals of standardised handshakes than critical analysis or meaningful debate.

Arunachal Pradesh bid to set up 'Sun Village

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Arunachal Pradesh government and Austec Gaming Alliance of the United States for setting up of a "Sun Village" at  Jengging in Upper Siang district of the state, at an estimated cost of $100 million. 

Disclosing this in the state assembly during question hour on March 21, Arunachal Pradesh Tourism Minister Tengamngemu said this was an integrated tourist project with facilities consisting of theme park, water sports, five-star hotels, resorts, bars and night clubs, casinos, golf courses, commercial shopping complex, convention centre, health club, para sailing, and ice skating. 

The project is aimed at the top market segment of foreign tourists with high spending capacity and to facilitate their travel, he said.He said the project will be operated on the pattern of "build, own and use" with the state government's commitment limited to providing land for the project, nearly 2000 acres, on a 99-year lease. In return, the company will hand will pay 25 per cent of its total annual net earnings from the project. 

The White House (United States government) has cleared the project and the Exim Bank has agreed to finance the international airport. However, the airport proposal, submitted to the government of India, is still awaiting clearance by the Foreign Investment Promotion Board. 

Tengamngemu said the matter is being pursued with the Union government in all earnestness and with the project's clearance, most of the major procedural formalities will be over, he added.

Mizoram imparts a lesson in Literacy to the Country

It is something for which the entire North-East should be proud of. Mizoram has overtaken Kerala as India's most literate state. Moreover, four other states of the North-East - Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Nagaland - have recorded highest percentage of growth in literacy in the years between 1991-97. 

The figures, released by the National Sample Survey, are revealing. Mizoram's literacy in 1997 stood at 95 per cent, two percentage points higher than Kerala's 93. In fact, according to officials of the Directorate of Adult Education in Mizoram, the 1998-99 figures show that 96 per cent of Mizoram's seven lakh odd population is literate. Mizoram of course was always known to be among the top two-three states for the last two decades. 

Meghalaya, with 27.9 per cent, led the country's literacy improvement in the years between 1991 and 1997 closely followed by Nagaland (22.4), Assam (22.1), Sikkim (22.1) and Arunachal Pradesh (18.4). Of these four states, Nagaland and Assam have had serious insurgency and fiscal problems during the period under review and yet, literacy has accelerated in these states. 

Says a senior official in Assam: "To jump from 52.5 per cent in 1991 to nearly 75 per cent in 1997, Assam has done very well given the turmoil that the state has been witness to during this phase." Indeed, insurgency and the subsequent counter-insurgency operations in the state were at its peak during 1991-97. 

But, as saner elements in the state never tire of pointing out, the uncertainties brought about by serious law and order problems have not really affected the common people. As a deputy commissioner of a district involved in Total Literacy Campaign says: "We have been fortunate to keep the Total Literacy Campaign away from the all-pervading influence of insurgency unlike other sectors of development." 

In Nagaland too, serious insurgency has not been able to slow down literacy. But the spectacular success indeed belongs to Mizoram. Till the late 1980s, Mizoram was making a reasonably good progress in literacy improvement. It is, however, in the post-1990 period that the state witnessed rapid progress. As Lalrawna, joint director, adult education, Mizoram, says: "It was after we changed over to the "each one, teach one," method in 1989-90 that we made excellent progress." 

Explaining the methodology, Lalrawna said a systematic effort was made to identify illiterates in far-flung villages. Once these villages were spotted, a number of volunteers, labeled as animators were appointed and simultaneously village adult education committees were formed to oversee the entire project. 

"This method, which ensured the involvement of a broad spectrum of people and organisations such as village councils, church bodies, teachers and social workers, yielded superb results," Lalrawna revealed. 

The Mizoram government drew up a detailed plan primed towards achieving total literacy. Each animator was given the task of teaching five persons at a time. "As an incentive, we gave the animators prescribed teaching-learning material free of cost, a hurricane lantern and kerosene oil so as to carry on teaching even after sundown." 

Evidently, the method has paid off. Today, Mizoram is nearly cent per cent literate but for the fact that a large percentage of Chakma and Reang population, who form a minority in the state, are not as keen as their Mizo counterparts to attain literacy. As a senior government official who does not want to be named, says: "Among the Mizo, cent per cent literacy has already been achieved. It is only because of Chakmas and Brus (the Reangs) that the overall percentage shows around 95." 

In addition to the reluctance on part of the Chakmas and Reangs, the fact that since 1994-95 autonomous district councils have taken over the total literacy campaign in their respective areas, may have slowed down the progress. 

Even at 95 per cent the figures are impressive. But how good is the situation on ground? According to Adult Education Department officials, all neo-literates in the state can do the following: 

· Read aloud, in Mizo, at a speed of 30 words per minute, a simple passage. · Silent reading at 35 words a minute, of small paragraphs in simple language. · Reading with understanding of road signs, posters and simple instructions. · Copying with understanding at seven words a minute. · Writing with proper spacing and alignment. · Writing independently, short letters and applications and filling in forms of day-to-day use to the learners. · Reading and writing numerals 1-100. 

Significantly, Mizoram has not stopped at producing simple neo-literates. Over the past couple of years, the authorities have turned their attention to Continuing Education Programme. This programme is aimed at making neo-literates and school dropouts acquire knowledge beyond the preliminary stages. 

Even the Centre has laid stress on this programme, sanctioning Rs 45.67 lakh to establish 360 Continuing Education Centres and 40 more nodal centres spread across the state. Despite the spread of literacy, Mizoram has a high rate of school dropouts. According to Lalrawna, in 1997, the school dropout rates were as high as 60 per cent in Class X, 54 per cent in Class VIII and 35 in Class V. Therefore, Continuing Education is the new mantra. 

One such centre is located in Aizawl's Central jail where both under trial prisoners and convicts are imparted continuing education. 

As Lalthanpuia, a commerce graduate, lodged in the jail for the past two months, said: "Working as an instructor here has given me new insights. Many of the prisoners are interested in learning more through maps, text books and demonstrations." Lalthanpuia teaches about 36 inmates twice a day, totalling three hours daily. "The learners are a very curious lot. They ask a lot of questions," Lalthanpuia says. 

Concurs Skliania, a 30-year old Class III drop out: "The chance to renew our education even when in jail has given us a new hope for life after imprisonment." 

In Mizoram, education and a desire to succeed in life has acquired a new meaning which is well reflected in the literacy figures. In a couple of years time may be, the tiny state, which prides itself in being progressive, may become the first Indian state to be fully literate in the true sense of the term. Given the present scenario, it is not an impossible dream. 

Goa shows the way in Child Welfare

Goa has introduced a bill to promote, protect and support efforts to uphold the rights of children.

"It is my endeavour to make Goa the country's first child-friendly state during the Year of the Child we are observing," Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar said after introducing the bill in the assembly on Tuesday.After 14 participatory consultations, a state-level workshop held in January had adopted the Goa Declaration on the Rights of the Child. The state policy for children formulated on this basis had recommended enacting a law to take care of uncovered areas in central acts.

The legislation deals with children's education, health and nutrition.It promises to eradicate all forms of child labour in two years and child illiteracy in three years by formulating separate plans of action.

Offences will invite a fine between Rs 25,000 and Rs 50,000 with simple imprisonment. The fines will be credited to the State Children's Fund. The bill, however, states that no action will be initiated unless a satisfactory rehabilitation programme is prepared.

When it comes to school admissions, the bill calls for 'zero rejection' even if a child is suffering from AIDS.Having trained counsellors in schools and elected students' councils from standard VIII onwards will also be made mandatory.

The bill proposes to include in the curriculum child rights and gender justice, health education as well as yoga, pranayam and meditation.While banning corporal punishment, the bill proposes participatory evaluations rather than examinations.

The legislation proposes compulsory immunisation from MMR, Rubella and Hepatitis B. The government as well as private sector will have to provide six-month maternity leave as well as crèches and day care centres for infants and their working mothers.Special provisions are also proposed to eliminate all forms of discrimination against girls, which result in unethical practices such as prenatal sex selection etc. The bill speaks against child pornography and violent portrayals of a girl child through the media.

The state proposes to constitute a commission for children, advisory groups, steering committees.

The bill, formulated in consultation with non-governmental organisations, calls for special courts where offences against children will be tried. The guidelines provide for in-camera trials, protecting identity of the child victim and avoiding aggressive questioning or cross-examination.

Modernization in India

Everyone nowadays seems obsessed about the question of whether or notIslam can be reconciled with modernization. In discussing this issue, what constitutes modernization is often confused with westernization. Understanding the difference is vital. India's encounter with the West over the past three centuries underscores the distinction between the two processes -- modernization and Westernization -- that are often assumed to be synonymous. In fact, modernization does not entail Westernization, as the example of contemporary Japan demonstrates. Whereas modernization entails a change in belief about the way the material world operates, Westernization entails a change in cosmological beliefs about the way that one should live.

Like China and unlike Japan, India resisted changes in its ancient beliefs about the way the world works (and should work) which modernization entails. Instead, like many Islamic countries today, India wrongly believed Gandhi's doctrine that modernization necessarily means Westernization. Fitfully, and under the influence of the British Raj, parts of the economy and society were modernized during the second half of the 19th century of laissez-faire and free trade. Some of the traditional literary castes also embraced Westernization.

British policy turned India into a pioneer of Third World industrialization, with an economy increasingly based on domestic capital and entrepreneurship combined with imported technology. But modernization stalled when protectionist pressures from Lancashire and the exigencies of Imperial finance led the British to abandon free trade and laissez faire. At the same time, Westernization fueled the rise of a nationalist movement.

The introduction of income taxes and UK labor laws in the late 19th century led to nearly a century of mounting state intervention in the economy, a process that accelerated after independence. This damaged India's growth prospects and hopes of alleviating its ancient scourge of mass poverty. The breakdown of the global economy in the first half of the 20th century in the wake of World War I further eroded India's incipient integration into the world economy during the British Raj. Finally, beginning with the economic reforms of 1991, India at last rejected inward-looking policies, returning to where it left off at the end of the 19th century.

We now have a fairly clear quantitative picture of the performance of the Indian economy throughout this period. During the 130 years from 1868 until 1999-2000, per capita income more than trebled, as national income increased by a factor of eight while the population grew nearly five-fold. This suggests that the age-old combination of economic stagnation and cultural stability that I call the "Hindu Equilibrium" seems finally to have been broken. But on closer inspection, it turns out that this was largely because of the economic performance of the last two decades. 

The sub-period from 1868-1900 saw the beginning of industrialization and India's partial integration into the world economy under the Raj. National income did not stagnate, as nationalist historians once maintained, but grew modestly, at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent. Growth was fastest from 1870-1890, followed by large fluctuations in output. A fairly low rate of population growth ensured a modest annual rise in per capita income of about 0.7 percent during this period.

The second sub-period, 1900-1945, saw the breakdown of the global economy and the start of India's population explosion. Growth of per capita income decelerated between 1902 and 1930 and declined further in the last fifteen years of British rule until 1947. After 1920, this was due entirely to the rise in population growth, to 1.22 percent per year, which outpaced fairly high output growth throughout the decade until 1930. Over this entire 45-year sub-period, output grew at just above 1 percent annually -- the same rate as under the Raj -- but yearly population growth soared to 0.8 percent, causing virtual stagnation of per capita income.

The third sub-period, 1950-1980, marked the heyday of economic planning. Infrastructure investment -- which had been difficult for the embattled British Raj to finance -- suddenly boomed. This, together with high agricultural growth rates, led to a dramatic rise in output, which increased at an annual average rate of 4.5 percent. But the demographic explosion that began in the 1920s had by now driven the rate of population growth up to 3 percent per year, so that annual per capita income grew by only 1.5 percent. 

A departure from what the late Raj Krishna dubbed the "Hindu rate of growth" came only in the fourth sub-period, from 1980-1999. Partial economic liberalization, undertaken by the Rajiv Gandhi government in the mid-1980s, and the more substantial Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh economic reforms in 1991, boosted national income growth to an average annual rate of 6.8 percent. At the same time, yearly population growth slowed to an average of 2.3 percent, so that per capita income rose at an impressive annual rate of 4.5 percent, making a dent in India's mass structural poverty for the first time in millennia.

If India can now complete the unfinished business of fully integrating into the global economy, there is no reason why it cannot improve upon its impressive recent growth performance.

India walks the tightrope with Israel

"We cannot accept that Israel, with its plots and in this unusual manner, becomes involved in regional affairs." So said Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Sadak Harazi on Tuesday, expressing concern over the "real purpose" of Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres's three-day visit to India earlier this week. 

"If it is true that Tehran is worried about my visit, it is a good thing," retorted Peres in an interview to Israeli Army Radio from India. "Until now Tehran has been involved in terror and has pretended to be innocent...." To rub it in, he pointed out that India and Israel "see the world eye to eye and agree that terror must disappear". 

The Pakistani press was equally suspicious of Peres's visit, with some reports suggesting that the 'Zionists and the Hindus' might be planning strikes against Pakistan's nuclear installations. This was, of course, rejected by official Islamabad, which claimed that its nuclear facilities were well protected. 

Pakistan, however, voiced apprehensions about the proposed sale of the Israeli Phalcon early warning system to India, saying any such collaboration involving advanced weapon systems should cause concern across the Islamic world. 

New Delhi was quick to distance itself from Peres's remarks about Iran, since it sees Tehran as one of its principal allies in countering Pakistan's anti-India campaign in the Islamic world. It also perceives Iran as an important link to the Central Asian republics. 

Peres's denouncement of Iraq as another sponsor of terrorism too must have made the Indian side uncomfortable, given Delhi's attempts to maintain friendly ties with Baghdad and its continued opposition to the United Nations sanctions against that country. 

These incidents only highlight the tightrope walk New Delhi has had to perform to avoid being perceived domestically and internationally as leaning too close to the Zionist State, particularly since it has always allied itself strongly with Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian cause. 

But the fact remains that ever since the establishment of formal diplomatic contact between Israel and India in 1992 (there has been a consulate in Mumbai since 1951, but ties were upgraded 41 years later), the two countries have built upon the relationship, though New Delhi has tried to underplay it to avoid offending the Arabs, who supply most of India's oil. 

But after the Vajpayee government came to power, there was an overt surge in cooperation in almost every sphere, despite some objections raised by the Arab embassies in New Delhi. Home Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh and former West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu are among the Indian politicians who have visited Israel over the last couple of years. The most obvious Arab protest against this growing relationship came when Saudi Arabia abruptly cancelled Singh's proposed visit late last year on flimsy grounds. 

The fact that Israel refused to condemn India's nuclear tests in 1998 endeared Jerusalem further to New Delhi. And then, during the Kargil conflict, Israel became one of the primary suppliers of ammunition for the Bofors gun. Today, Israel is India's second largest arms supplier after Russia. 

Coming as it did at a time when India-Pakistan ties have reached a new low, Peres's visit reasserted the Jewish State's eagerness to step up business with India. As the Israelis see it, besides the commercial gains from arms sales and other tie-ups, the payoff for increasing defence and other cooperation involves India using its "good offices" to bring Arafat to the negotiating table and sharing information on terrorist outfits and sympathisers. In fact, the first Israel-India joint working group on terrorism was meeting in Jerusalem even as Peres was visiting India. 

The team led by R M Abhyankar, additional secretary in the external affairs ministry, is expected to finalise a regular bilateral arrangement. But, in another example of the tightrope act India has to perform, Abhyankar also carried a letter from Prime Minister A B Vajpayee for Arafat, reiterating India's support for the Palestinian cause. 

Late last year, soon after September 11, a team of Israeli counter-terrorism experts toured Jammu & Kashmir at Advani's invitation. Led by Eli Katzir of the counter-terrorism combat unit of the Israeli prime minister''s office, the team comprising top police and military intelligence officers was supposed to prepare a report on ways to prevent terrorists from sneaking into India from Pakistan. 

Then in October, Israel lifted the self-imposed ban on export licensing approvals to India and sent a high-level delegation to firm up arms deals, the most expensive being the Phalcon early warning system. That deal, worth nearly $1 billion, is likely to come through soon with the US withdrawing its objections to the sale. Earlier, Israel had been forced by the US to renege on the sale of the system to China. 

Israeli unmanned aircraft, or drones, are already deployed on the border with Pakistan, with more advanced versions likely to be ordered soon. There are also reports of Israel upgrading and servicing some of India's Russian-built equipment, mainly the aging MiG-21 aircraft, which are now being fitted with advanced radar to bring them at par with the American systems used by the Pakistani Air Force. 

"Israel is likely to be one of our major defence suppliers, particularly if a war breaks out with Pakistan," said a defence ministry source. 

On other fronts, Peres not only reiterated Israel's support for India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, he went a step ahead and sought India's inclusion in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. He argued that since the alliance had changed its focus from old enemies that no longer exist to the newest threat, terrorism, and India had joined the war on terror, it deserved to be on board. 

He shrugged off the fact that Pakistan too had jumped on to the anti-terror bandwagon after the September 11 attacks. "The world is no longer divided into east and west. The new division is between countries that harbour terrorists and countries which fight them," he said. 

But though he made the right noises on Jammu & Kashmir, expressed faith in India's ability to resolve the issue without outside help, tried to expedite the sale of military equipment, and talked of cooperation in the war on terror, the fact remains that the two countries have no commonality in terms of terror enemies. Hamas and Hezbollah are quite different from the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in terms of both leadership and political outlook, though, like all terrorist groups, they have been known to exchange notes. 

This was obvious at the interaction with the media that followed Peres's meeting with Advani. While Peres spoke of Iran and Iraq as the next targets, Advani talked about Pakistan. And when forced to discuss Pakistan on a TV interview, Peres admitted that the ground reality was different here, given the nuclear status of both nations. 

"You have to fight terrorism in a determined manner and in different ways than to fight a war, because they [terrorists] use different ways... While fighting terrorism, you should have a political horizon and conduct a dialogue," he said. "You should also raise one hand for peace in a prominent manner... Even the Simla solution calls for a direct bilateral dialogue." 

India not in need of assistance: IMF

Lauding India for its "comfortable" foreign exchange reserves, the International Monetary Fund said the country was not in need of any assistance from it.

"India does not need any financing from IMF considering that the country had $73 billion of forex reserves," the Washington-based multilateral institution's representative in India, James Gordon, said, at a seminar on 'The Role of IMF in India', organised by The Indian Institute of Planning and Management in New Delhi.

With a foreign exchange reserve of $73 billion mop-up within one decade, he said, "Frankly, something must have been done right."Considering that India's foreign exchange reserves of $73 billion could sustain 15 months import, Gordon said, "it is extremely comfortable."

India had last borrowed from the IMF during the balance of payment crisis in the early 1990s and since the country had fully repaid its loans, the IMF's role had been "considerably" scaled down."As of now, IMF's role in India is that of surveillance," he said.

On India's total debt position, with a short term debt of $10 billion dollar and a huge forex reserves, the IMF official said, "the short-term credit is not that big a problem for India," even as he expressed concern over the rising proportion of internal debt to GDP and increase in fiscal deficit.

India's cautious approach on liberalising capital account convertibility also came in for praise from the IMF.

Bangladeshi's Get Out from India!!!!!!!!!

You are bound to bump into someone from Lahore if you stay long enough in Delhi. (Oddly, it is never Multan, or Rawalpindi, or Lyallpur, or any of the other cities in the western Punjab, but always Lahore) And most always wax sentimental about the beloved city they left behind at Partition.

Once, many years ago, I was visiting a friend in Chittaranjan Park. (For those unfamiliar with Delhi, this is our 'Little Bengal,' a place originally named 'East Pakistan Displaced Persons Colony.') His parents happened to be visiting him at the time, and some of their friends had come around to see them. I was curious to know whether any of them were as sentimental about the homes which some of them had (presumably) left behind as their Punjabi counterparts were.

When I put the question to the company at large, I got the distinct impression that only politeness to a guest prevented them from wondering about my own sanity! After a long pause, one old gentleman ventured to suggest that he rather missed his Padma hilsa – a comment that met with general approval!

Today, he would not miss even that since the fish now comes by air to India. Unfortunately, that is not the only thing that Bangladesh exports, and therein lies a major problem for us in India…

There may be as many as two crore (20 million) illegal Bangladeshi migrants in India. We do not want them, and we do not need them. How do we stop the entry of more migrants, and what do we do with those already inside this country? We are already cursed with one horrible neighbour to the west, Pakistan, but believe me the one to our east, Bangladesh, is potentially as much of a headache.

It is not just a case of Bangladesh unloading its unwanted people on us, and then cheerfully denying any responsibility. Dacca is also turning a blind eye to Pakistani, or Pakistani-backed, forces who operate from Bangladeshi territory. The focus right now may be on those illegal migrants trying to cross into West Bengal, but do not forget that the international frontier also touches other Indian states. 

In some, kidnapping has become a highly profitable cottage industry because criminals know they can always find a refuge across the border, with Bangladeshi officials looking away in exchange for a share of the loot. And let us not even talk about what all those Bangladeshis fleeing their miserable economic basketcase of a country are doing to the demographics of the North-East! Need I remind readers that the decade-long Assam agitation began in response to the increasing number of Bengali-speaking persons?

But the Bangladeshi headache is no longer Assam's or Tripura's problem alone, but one that must concern everyone in India. There are huge concentrations of illegal migrants in the metropolises of Delhi and Mumbai. These become recruiting centers for anti-national or anti-social elements, especially now when an inclement economic climate means that other jobs are that much tougher to find.

Truth be told, the problem of migration from Bangladesh is almost as old as that of infiltration from Pakistan. About 25% of the population of East Pakistan was Hindu, a proportion that fell steadily as non-Muslims found themselves treated as second-class citizens. The trickle of refuges became a flood when the two wings of Pakistan came to loggerheads in 1971; suddenly India was confronted with both Muslim and Hindu refugees on its soil. According to reliable estimates, India, which was struggling to house and feed its own population, had to meet the challenge of doing the same for up to 12 million refugees.

Some blithely assumed most would return once East Pakistan became Bangladesh. They did not; in fact, many more continued to come. I blame Delhi and Calcutta as much as I do Dacca – far too many politicians decided that they could use Bangladeshi votes in exchange for 'protection.' That is why it is only now that Delhi has begun to take the issue seriously.

Islamabad has a simple response to all charges of infiltration: 'Just say No!' – in effect deny any responsibility. Dacca follows suit. But we have had enough of this idiocy. There is no room any longer for sentimental claptrap about 'brotherhood' and the like. The illegal migrants must be identified, segregated, and then pushed back where they came from. India has enough problems of its own without having to take on Bangladesh's burden as well.

Indian's must stand up and be Counted

Satveer Chaudhary is the second Indian American to be elected to a state Senate in the United States.The Minnesota state senator's family hailed from Rohtak in Haryana before they migrated to the United States. After having visited India several times this past decade, this winter's three week trip bore a special mission for Chaudhary who was re-elected senator in November. "I want to build a bridge between Minnesota and Haryana, two places that have a great relevance in my life," he told Chief Correspondent Onkar Singh in an exclusive interview. 

Is it true you want to build a bridge between Minnesota and Rohtak? 

I want to build some kind of connection between Haryana and Minnesota. Both are agricultural states and have vast potential to make giant strides in almost all spheres of life. 

I want to have some kind of Haryana connection back in Minnesota. Maybe we can have a twin states or sister states relationship. The two states can have common meeting ground, in education, agricultural, politics and the economy. 

What can you do for Haryana? 

I had good meetings with Haryana Chief Minister Om Parkash Chautala. I visited my father's village in Meerut in Uttar Pradesh. I visited the Maharishi Dayanand University in Haryana. I am satisfied with the discussions I had with political leaders and businessmen in Haryana. I hope we will continue to have good rapport in future as well. 

Haryana is slowly coming up on the Indian industrial scene. I feel businessmen from Minnesota could do something in this matter. We have good food processing capabilities we could offer Haryana. But before that India would have to take stringent measures to improve the environment in the country. It is heartening to note that CNG is being used as replacement fuel for petrol. This would help bring down the level of pollution in India, particularly in Delhi. 

Have you identified any area of likely cooperation? 

I am here to make friends and take stock. I want to see what kind of connections one can have in India which could be exploited by both states. 

You visited a number of locations during your stay. What response did you get from people? 

All those who I had the opportunity to meet have been very kind to me. Their response was overwhelming. They were pleased to know that one of their own has been elected to office in the United States. Regardless of the mutual benefit, a lot of pride was expressed by people. I am grateful for this kind gesture. 

Wherever I went -- whether it was Uttar Pradesh, Haryana or elsewhere -- I got a warm welcome from my fellow Indians. 

What kind of turmoil have Indians in the United States experienced since 9/11? 

There has been blatant discrimination against people of South Asian origin since September 11, 2001, irrespective of whether they are Muslim, Hindu or Sikh. It is important now, more then ever, that Indians no matter where they are, stand up, be counted and demand their seat at the political table. 

Sikhs in particular became targets because of the mistaken notion among some Americans that they were linked to Osama bin Laden. What did influential Indian Americans like yourself do to protect them? 

Two days after the attack on the United States I held a press conference along with members of the Sikh and Muslim communities to announce our solidarity with the rest of America in its hour of crisis. We condemned the attacks on the American people by the fundamentalists, by a few mad people. 

I was invited on various talks shows to speak on behalf of the Indian community. I was not the only one. There were hundreds and thousands of people from the Asian region who were doing the same. We had to educate Americans about what we stood for. This helped us a great deal. This benefited many minorities in Minnesota because of the efforts of their leadership. 

The United States wants the world to get together and fight terrorism, but when it comes to fighting cross border terrorism, the Bush Administration looks the other way. 

I hope that impression changes. The United States certainly does not brush aside terrorism, whether it is against itself or any other country. I have noted statements issued by the State Department about terrorist activities coming from within Pakistan. The United States has built up considerable pressure on Pakistan to do something about those activities. 

Since India and Pakistan have nuclear capabilities, the United States has to maintain a balance between the two. And it does what it can. 

Why has the Indian community in the United States failed to project the Indian point of view correctly? 

I do not agree with the suggestion that it is the job of Indians living in the United States to act as spokespersons for the Indian government. The Government of India has to bridge the relationship between India and United States. It would help a great deal if the Government of India speaks a bit more about what is going on here just as Pakistan and other countries do. It would be nice if Indians in India, right down from Prime Minister Vajpayee, tell the US government about what its views are and the truth about India's perspective. 

We should leave Pakistan to stew in it's own Juice

The year 1996 marked the 25th anniversary of India's triumph over Pakistan in the 1971 war and the birth of Bangladesh. Many commemorative meetings were held in New Delhi attended by the dramatis personae, civilian as well as military, of 1971. They spoke of their role and tributes were paid to them. 

At one of those meetings, a Bangladeshi national resident in New Delhi noticed a tall, handsome and elegant man sitting inconspicuously at the back of the audience, went up to him and said: "Sir, you should have been sitting in the centre of the dais. You are the man who made 1971 possible." The handsome and shy man replied: "I did nothing. They deserve all the praise." Embarrassed at being spotted and recognised, he stood up and quietly left the hall. 

His name was Rameshwar Nath Kao -- Ramjee to his relatives, friends and colleagues and "Sir" to his junior colleagues. He was the founding father of the Research & Analysis Wing, Indias external intelligence agency, created on September 21, 1968, by bifurcating the Intelligence Bureau, which used to deal with internal as well as external intelligence. Indira Gandhi chose him for the honour because she as well as her father, Jawaharlal Nehru, knew him well and thought well of his professionalism. 

Also because he headed the IBs external intelligence division and had made a name as one of the founding fathers of the Directorate General of Security after the disastrous 1962 Sino-Indian War to fill up deficiencies noticed in the capability and performance of the Indian intelligence community during the war. She made Mr Kao head of RAW as well as the DGS. 

In 1982, Count Alexandre de Marenches, who headed the French external intelligence agency Service For External Documentation And Counter-Intelligence or SDECE as it was then known under President Valery Giscard dEstaing, was asked by an interlocutor to name the five great intelligence chiefs of the 1970s. Mr Kao, whom he knew well and admired, was one of the five named by him. He praised the way Mr Kao had built up RAW into a professional intelligence organisation and made it play within three years of its creation a formidable role in changing the face of South Asia in 1971. He remarked: "What a fascinating mix of physical and mental elegance! What accomplishments! What friendships! And, yet so shy of talking about himself, his accomplishments and his friends." 

That was Mr Kao in a nutshell. He gave credit to his colleagues and subordinates when things went well and took the blame when things went wrong. He was liked by the high and the mighty not only in India, but also in many other countries, but throughout his life never once did he drop or use their names. He carried the secrets of his friendships with him to his funeral pyre a year ago, when he died at the age of 82. 

He lived inconspicuously and left this world equally inconspicuously. Apart from his relatives, close personal friends such as Mr Naresh Chandra, the former Cabinet Secretary and Indian ambassador to the US, and serving and retired officers of the Indian intelligence community, hardly any serving government official, junior or senior, attended the cremation to bow their heads before the remains of a man whose personal contribution to an exciting and significant chapter of independent Indias history should have been written in letters of gold. Amends were made subsequently by holding a well-attended condolence meeting at which speakers vied with each other in praising his services to the nation. 

Like any human being, Mr Kao had his faults as well as his greatness. Like any leader of an organisation, he had failures as well as successes. His judgement of men, matters and events proved presciently right often and wrong on occasions. He was a complex mix of objectivity and subjectivity in matters concerning human relationships. 

He was a man of tremendous vision, but was not uniformly successful in choosing the right men and women to give shape to his vision. His humility and mental generosity occasionally rendered him blind to faults in those around him. He trusted men and women to a fault, little realising that some of those trusted by him were not worthy of it. 

Despite all this, no knowledgeable person can dispute that he strode elegantly, effortlessly and scintillatingly in the intelligence world of his time. In the Indian intelligence world of yesteryears, Mr Kao was first; the rest were his disciples. He was a legend and deserved to be. The triumph of 1971, Indias role in the Great Game in Afghanistan, Indias assistance to newly independent African countries in building up their intelligence and security set-ups, Indias covert assistance to the African National Congresss anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa and to the independence movement in Namibia, the happy denouement in Sikkim and Nagaland in the 1970s and in Mizoram in the early 1980s etc etc. Mr Kao was there in the midst of it all -- active, but unseen. 

It is a pity that there is no well-researched and well-documented record of Mr Kaos monumental role in the world of Indian intelligence. At a time, when intelligence officers in the rest of the world are coming out of their shell after retirement and sharing with their people their experience, insights and views, Indian intelligence officers continue to prefer to stay inside their purdah. 

Apart from the late Mr B N Mullick, the second director of the IB after Indias independence, another towering figure, who wrote of his days at the head of the IB, no other retired Indian intelligence officer has chosen to write his memoirs. To Indian intelligence officers, the very thought of recording their memoirs seems indecent, something not done by a spook. 

Serving intelligence officers do not always reduce to writing all their thoughts and actions. It is part of what is called restrictive security. The more you write, the greater the possibility of a leakage and embarrassment. So it is thought. So, they carry their memories and insights with them to the funeral pyre. History will be poorer by such an attitude. 

A similar attitude prevailed in the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1950s and the 1960s. They started a historical division to maintain on a continuous basis a complete record of the role of the agency and its officers to ensure that their memories, perceptions, insights and conclusions were available, at least to their future generations of intelligence officers, if not to the general public and the historians. 

Mr Kao liked this idea tremendously and was worried that once those officers of RAW and the DGS, who had played a role in connection with the 1971 war, passed away, the nation would have no authentic and first person account. In 1983, when he was senior adviser to Mrs Indira Gandhi, he persuaded RAW to set up a similar historical division.

 After Mr Kao left office in November,1984, this division was wound up before it could complete its work. What a pity! How short-sighted intelligence officers can be! Hardly a dozen retired officers of RAW and the DGS, who had played an active role in connection with the 1971 war, are still alive. The oldest of them is 81 and the youngest 68. After they disappear, a valuable part of the history of Indian intelligence saved in their memory, but not reduced to writing would be lost. 

After 1996, a great admirer of Mr Kao in the Indian Foreign Service persuaded him to leave for future generations his first person account of some aspects of his association with the world of intelligence. In the months before his death, he spent a few hours every day transfering his memory into a tape-recorder. The tapes were transcribed and he personally corrected the transcripts. The tapes and the transcripts have been left by him in the custody of a prestigious non-governmental organisation of New Delhi to which he was close with the wish that they should be made public only some years after his death. It is hoped these are preserved carefully. It ought to be a precious part of the history of independent India. 

We have no sense of history and can be shockingly negligent in preserving it. Before ordering the Indian Army into the Golden Temple at Amritsar in June 1984, Mrs Gandhi, through intermediaries, had long hours of secret negotiations with Sikh leaders, some extremists, some not, to reach a negotiated solution to their problems. The negotiations in India were carried on by Rajiv Gandhi and two of his close associates and those abroad by Mr Kao. Mrs Gandhi was keen that a record of those negotiations should be kept so that history would know how desperately and in vain she had tried for a negotiated solution, before she reluctantly sent the army inside the Golden Temple. Today, 18 years later, nobody knows where those records of historical importance are. 

In his retirement, Mr Kao maintained a lively interest in the world around him till his last moment. He was a voracious reader of Indian newspapers, though he considered them highly superficial and fragmented. It was he who encouraged me to start writing after my retirement in August 1994, and was an avid reader of my articles. During my visits to New Delhi from Chennai, I had spent many hours discussing matters serious and not so serious with him. He never failed to react to my articles even if it be by a simple "Thank You." 

The extracts from some of his letters to me may give readers a little flavour of a tall, handsome, elegant, brilliant, loving, caring and shy man called R N Kao. 

The USA

Many years ago, after meeting some of the top functionaries in the USA, I formed the opinion that they are not necessarily anti-Indian. Their priorities are different and are determined by their perception of national interests. They follow their chosen line of action with a stubborn determination. If, in the process, we get hurt, it is just too bad. (7-10-97) 

The National Security Council

I suppose there is general agreement that our national security management leaves much to be desired. In the absence of any long-range planning, ad hocism prevails. In the last few years, there has been a demand for establishing a National Security Council, somewhat on the pattern of what exists in the USA. My own view is that adopting the American system would not necessarily work to our advantage. We shall have to adapt it to suit our requirements and our resources. Perhaps, for historical reasons and conditioned by my own background, my preference is for the British system. American resources are so vast that they are able to get away with many things, including major mistakes, which we may not be able to do. (6-9-97) 

American Cultural Influence On The Indian Elite

Pan-American culture is making our so-called elite rootless. Indeed, it is very true that in the southern hemisphere, the young upwardly mobile affluent people find themselves more at ease with West Europeans and Americans than with their own poorer nationals. For a country like India, this could lead to dangerous tensions.. (23-1-98) 

Information Revolution

The question in my mind is whether, with the fast developing information technology, it would at all be feasible for any government agency to filter the avalanche of information, which is beamed towards us from different angles of the azimuth. (4-8-97)

The recent advances in information technology are quite dazzling, but one doubts whether an overwhelming data bank is synonymous with wisdom. Indeed, I have always felt a little uneasy at the thought that the world would become a mirror image of the US. What a dull prospect it would be, and how disastrous for the natural resources of this planet.! It has been truly said that man is the only creature of this earth who destroys the environment in which it survives. (12-1-98) 

China-USA Relations 

China and USA have some kind of a love-hate relationship. The Chinese will feel they have arrived only if they can show to the world that they are in the same league as the USA. The latter, on their part, have, to my mind, a long-standing guilt complex so far as China is concerned. Perhaps, it flows from the long history of American Methodist missionary activity in China. (25-11-97) 

China 

As a people,we sometimes get carried away by euphoria or sink into gloom. It is quite clear that, so far as China is concerned, it would be a long haul for us. I remember that, in the mid fifties, while addressing an annual conference of the intelligence chiefs of the States, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had said that while our problems with Pakistan were acute and demanded urgent solution, our problems with China would prove more intractable and continue for a long long time. (14-12-96)

The Chinese, too, are busy playing games, as every one else does. In 1984, when I was leaving for Beijing, my then boss (My comment: Mrs Indira Gandhi) asked me what I hoped to achieve. In reply, I had said I expected very little, but that I saw no reason why we should leave the field to Pakistan unchallenged and not make even an effort. (23-12-96)

I think that with economic prosperity being more evenly spread out in China, the liberalisation of the political system would be inevitable. Once the people have enough to eat and a roof over their head, all kinds of explosive ideas of individual liberties, human rights and freedom of expression begin to take shape. One only hopes that the Chinese would be able to manage this better than, apparently, the Russians have been able to handle the economic problems following their attempts at political liberalisation. (30-1-97)

This morning, over the AIR there was a brief commentary about the increase in Chinas armed might and its modernisation over the last few years. One cannot but view this with some uneasiness. (3-3-97)

In spite of the publicity, a large part of the functioning of the Chinese apparatus remains opaque. Therefore, one has to be very cautious in making any forecasts about that country. (12-5-98) 

Pakistan 

Pakistan deserves to be declared a rogue state. How I wish that geography could be changed and we should leave Pakistan alone to stew in her own juice! (9-8-96) 

My gnawing fear is that, so long as there is an oligarchy in Pakistan of the armed forces and the senior bureaucrats, the government there would continue to maintain a posture of some hostility to us. Perhaps, they need it for their survival. (23-5-97) 

It is relevant to observe that in the 50th year of our independence, our Prime Minister (My comment: Mr Inder Gujral) is a person who came as a refugee from what is now West Pakistan; whereas in Pakistan, the Muslim migrants from India are still known only as Mohajirs. (6-9-97) 

It may sound somewhat impulsive, but I do often feel that we should leave Pakistan alone to stew in its own juice. The only thing we need to make certain is that if they start any adventurist course of action, we are able to give them a bloody nose. (7-10-97)

There is little doubt that China and North Korea have helped Pakistan in developing her missile capability, even if they have not handed over to them finished products. It is of extreme importance that we should know what Pakistan is doing so that we are able to maintain a posture of strength, based on our defensive and offensive capacities. (25-4-98) 

India's Relations With Myanmar 

It is somewhat strange that though India and Burma were, for many years, part of the same British Indian Empire, our relations with that country have remained uneasy since the military take-over there. One of the historical reasons for this may be the fact that U Nu was Jawaharlal Nehrus old personal friend. After he (My comment: U Nu) came away (My comment: to India), for many years he remained in exile in India. That could not have endeared us to the military authorities in Burma. (15-9-97) 

India's Look East Policy 

ASEAN countries are not too much in favour of India joining the London summit (My comment: Asia-Europe summit). We ourselves are not entirely free of blame for this. For a long time, these countries have felt that we were not interested in them. Some years ago, on a visit to Singapore, when I had gone to meet the foreign minister, he asked me the question: Is India seriously interested in us? It is only recently that we have begun to show more inclination to have dealings with these countries.I suppose that this was one of the hang-overs of our colonial past. (5-1-98) 

Human Rights 

While one should fully respect the legitimate concerns of the genuine human rights organisations, one has to strike a balance between the issues involved. This matter is now being used, unfortunately, by the so-called advanced countries as another stick to beat us with.Our experience of dealing with insurgencies in the Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East fully exposes the hypocrisy of the postures of the advanced countries. China, of course, snubs them and cynically ignores what they say. (8-7-97) 

India's Nuclear Tests (Pokhran 2) 

Today, of course, the biggest news is last nights nuclear explosions. Whether you like it or not, the fact is that many of the common people are quite wildly enthusiastic. My own feeling is that the fear of economic and other reprisals from America and her supporters would, probably, turn out to be exaggerated. Some people, who are knowledgeable and influential, mentioned to me last night that now is the time when the Congress should offer to co-operate with the BJP in forming a national government, to face the challenges which will come. (12-5-98) 

There is a heady feeling in the air just now. It is reminiscent to me of somewhat of the atmosphere after the 1971 war. Let us hope that we would be able to maintain this. The Chinese reaction, though on predictable lines, is regrettable. We should not allow ourselves to be driven into a position where we have to fight simultaneously on two fronts. (19-5-98) 

The Indian Scene

Irrespective of whatever else happens, there is no doubt that now the so-called backward and Dalit classes will wield a great deal of influence by virtue of their numbers, and it is significant that they are now acutely conscious of their strength. Therefore, one should expect major changes in politics, economics and social equity. It is a fascinating prospect. (8-5-96) 

Your piece on Narasimha Rao is specially thought-provoking, and I think that you have done a major service by drawing attention to the other side of the coin. Public adulation is notoriously fickle. So, one should not be entirely surprised with what has happened to his reputation now. Quite often, we fail to see the wood for the trees. 

I am not a great authority on Hinduism, but may I respectfully add that I do not entirely agree with your statement that Hinduism does not teach magnanimity? If anything distinguishes our religion from others, it is the spirit of tolerance. And, to my mind, magnanimity is only an extension of tolerance. In this particular instance, what has come to the forefront is the essential bitchiness of public fame. Perhaps, from the point of view of history, we are living too close to Narasimha Raos times, to be able to do full justice to him. (4-12-96)

It is discouraging to think that we are almost always unable to follow up, by effective action, on the recommendations of enquiry commissions and fail to appreciate the importance of building up institutions. (29-3-97)

I have always felt that reckless encouragement of foreign tourism is like playing with a double-edged sword. The wealthier people, who visit the poor countries, ostensibly as tourists, want primarily a good time. Perhaps, this is one of the less pleasant outcomes of globalisation. At this rate, in a few decades, the world would be a very boring place, with the same unisex clothes, the same fast food, the same pop music and, perhaps, the same new speak all over. (8-7-97)

I suspect that though we are catching up on globalisation, the bulk of our industrialists and business tycoons are still out of date in their thinking. (2-8-97) 

The point which you have made of the possibility of a counter-elite backlash emerging (My comment: in India), as happened in Iran during the reign of the Shah is most interesting. (12-1-98)

(My comment: For many years, I have held the view that what happened in Iran in 1978-79 was that the creeping revulsion of large sections of the masses against the Westernised elite led to the anti-Shah revolt and the Islamic leaders subsequently took over the leadership of these masses to stage the Islamic Revolution. I was also of the view that one could see the beginnings of a similar revulsion of large sections of the masses in India against the so-called secular elite for which the hurt feelings of the Muslims are more important than the hurt feelings of the Hindus and that this could one day lead to a Hindu revolution. On many occasions, Mr Kao and I had held animated discussions on this.) 

Unfortunately, the political scene in our country is presently so confused that it is difficult to say in which direction we are going. Of course, every one avows that the process of liberalisation of government controls would continue. One, however, wonders whether with megascams discovered every other day, how long we would be able to go on like this. (12-1-98) 

I derive comfort from the thought that even in the midst of the headlong surge towards globalisation and liberalisation, we in this country have not quite lost our bearings. (4-2-98)

The rise of Muslim fundamentalists in Tamil Nadu has somewhat surprised most of the people here (My comment: in New Delhi). This is because in Delhi there is abysmal ignorance about South India. Interestingly enough, about two years ago, when I happened to meet an Israeli diplomat at a party here, he had prophesied this kind of a development and was quite concerned at the fact that we seemed quite relaxed. (1-4-98) (My comment: The Israelis had been drawing India's attention since 1992 to the dangers of Islamic extremism in Tamil Nadu.)

Pakistan has 'Talibanised' Kashmir: JKLF

The Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front has criticised Pakistan for the 'Talibanisation' of Kashmir."Before the mushroom growth of the Kashmiri groups in early 1900s, the JKLF was the main group in the field, and to some extent had powerful voice in the matters. But when interest of those who supported the JKLF changed, it changed the balance of power in Kashmir," wrote London-based JKLF leader Shabir Choudhry in the US-based Pakistani web weekly South Asia Tribune.

"Those who deprived the JKLF of support at this crucial stage and gradually Talibanised the Kashmiri movement thought they were doing that in the national interest," Choudhry, who is the general secretary of JKLF-Yaseen's European unit, said.

He said, "They [Islamabad] were cautioned that this new approach was wrong and that it was a slow death to the movement, but they did not listen and continued with the policy."Now we all know that the change of policy was wrong, and that it resulted in a serious setback for the movement and caused innumerable problems to Pakistan."

He said India got sympathy mainly because the Kashmiri struggle for independence was transformed into a jihad and jihadis from all over the world were encouraged to rush to Kashmir.

Commenting on the role of the United States, Choudhry said, "Of course, America has keen interest in Kashmir because of its strategic importance."He said America had close friendly relations with both India and Pakistan. "But if they have to dump one of them, we know which one would be dumped.

"America has political, economic and strategic alliance interests in South Asia and has close military and strategic alliance with India. Of course, Pakistan also has importance mainly because of geographical location... but the authorities in Islamabad know that they don't have the same importance as India.

"... Pakistan's present importance is because of the ongoing war on terrorism and soon Islamabad will find its importance declining," the JKLF leader said. "Pakistan also know that they have not been able to play their Kashmir card effectively."

Pakistan has not kept its word: Sinha

Acknowledging that there has been a decline in the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir as a sequel to the deployment of the army on the borders, India has said the world now accepts that cross-border terrorism has nothing to do with the people of Kashmir.

"The visible result [after the deployment of troops] was that the president of Pakistan [Pervez Musharraf] himself said on more than one occasion that he was committed to [the] fight against terrorism..." External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha said while participating in BBC World Service Hindi weekly special phone-in programme on Sunday night."We have sent a clear message to Pakistan and the international community that Pakistan cannot capture Jammu and Kashmir by cross-border terrorism," he said.

Sinha also made it clear that India is under no pressure from the United States to talk to Pakistan. "There is no policy that is being made under pressure from the US, whether it is strategic, foreign or economic."

It is incorrect to say India has failed to see that Pakistan is declared as a terrorist state, he said.

"All powerful nations or groupings in the world... have on many occasions during the last year and a half accepted publicly that cross-border terrorism is going on, infiltration is on and Pakistan should stop this... that it has not stopped is a different matter.

"But the understanding of the world is clear in this matter. Just a couple of days ago US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill has spoken on this matter. Recently, the Japanese foreign minister visited India and she accepted this fact. The world accepts the fact that India has been and is a victim of cross-border terrorism, and Pakistan will have to stop it."

Admitting that Pakistan is an important ally of the US in the post-9/11 scenario, Sinha said: "Yes, Pakistan supported the US in Afghanistan, and at that time Musharraf had also promised that Pakistani soil would not be allowed to be used for any terrorist activity in Kashmir. But here he did not live up to his promise."He said India exerted a lot of pressure on Pakistan and the international community after the attack on Parliament.

"It was the result of that pressure, which forced Musharraf to mention in his January 12 [2002] address that Pakistan will not encourage terrorist acts in Kashmir.

"It is right that Pakistan has not lived up to its promise. Here it is not important what the US says, or the EU says. It is our battle and we will win it. Support from different parts of the world is a welcome step, but the fight is ours."Sinha also denied that India is now tilting towards the US. "It is right that India is trying to build close relations with the US, and it is being done from both sides... when two big countries of the world try to come close it is a positive step, it should not be seen as a tilt."

When a listener from Sharjah commented that the recent NRI conference in Delhi did not give any importance to those from the Gulf, Sinha said: "If somehow an impression has been created that the NRIs from the Gulf have been ignored, then it is not good.""So far as the dual citizenship is concerned, it can only be given to the NRIs living in countries that allow dual citizenship. In the Gulf countries there is no provision for dual citizenship," Sinha said.

International conference on Terrorism on Feb 10

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will inaugurate a two-day international conference on terrorism, being organised by the Bharatiya Janata Party's youth wing, on February 10-11 in Delhi. 

Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha president G Kishan Reddy said 80 countries have responded to the invitation, out of which 20 have confirmed their participation.Deputy Prime Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani is among those who would address the conference.

Meanwhile, the youth wing is in the process of collecting 20 million (two crore) signatures, to be submitted to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, as part of its campaign against terrorism.

India developing Agni-III missile

India is developing surface-to-surface Agni-III missile with a range of more than 3,000km, Scientific Adviser to the defence minister V K Aatre said in New Delhi on Saturday."We will hopefully test-fire it before the end of the year," he said on the sidelines of a seminar on defence and internal security on the concluding day of the three-day Pravasi Bharatiya Divas.

Aatre also announced that surface-to-surface missile Agni-I, which was test-fired on Thursday, is ready for induction into the armed forces.Agni-I, which has a range of 700 to 800km, has been tested twice. Asked if that was enough, Aatre said, "It is part of the Agni series of missiles, which have been tested eight times. We do not need more than the tests we have conducted."

Agni-I, which is nuclear-capable, can carry a payload of one tonne.

No more fighting between Indians, Nagas: NSCN (I-M)

In a significant statement, National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) leaders said on Saturday that there would be "no more fighting between Indians and Nagas".

"That is the understanding we have reached now," NSCN (I-M) chairman Isak Chisi Swu said after an hour-long meeting with Defence Minister George Fernandes in New Delhi. He said: "The people of Nagaland have been praying that the leaderships of India and NSCN (I-M) should successfully conclude their talks."Nagas now have a much better understanding with the people of India."

NSCN (I-M) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah said, "The talks were very cordial and the response of Fernandes was very warm."The two leaders, who arrived in New Delhi on January 9, had earlier met Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and his deputy Lal Kishenchand Advani.

Modi to bring in Anti-conversion bill in Gujarat

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on Friday announced that his government would bring in an anti-conversion bill called the 'Dharam Swatantrata Vidheyak' to contain forcible conversions in the state.Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, Modi said that the proposed bill would incorporate positive points of similar laws in states like Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Orissa.

He said that his government had set up a task force to deal with the problem of madrassas in the state. "This group is studying how madrassas operate in Pakistan and other Muslim countries and how they operate in some of the states like West Bengal. We will regulate the madrassas in our state," he said.

Modi said the Gujarat government had planned a five-point programme, 'Panch-Amrit', under which the state will give preference to core sectors like irrigation, education, energy, human resource and security."We are determined to provide protection to the people of Gujarat. Being a border state, Gujarat has its own problems. We are strengthening the intelligence system under this scheme. I will not disclose the other steps that we are taking in this regard. But whatever needs to be done will be done," he said.

Asked to comment on Chief Election Commissioner J M Lyngdoh's request to the people of Himachal Pradesh to not allow people from other states to communalise the atmosphere in the run-up to the assembly polls there, he said, "The people of Gujarat have given their verdict on his statements. I am confident that the people of Himachal Pradesh will do the same."

Asked if Hindutva would be the poll plank in Himachal Pradesh and the other states that go to polls in the next few months, Modi said, "The language that I use during my speeches will remain within the strategy decided by the senior leadership of the BJP."He said over 1,200 non-resident Gujaratis were in touch with him. "We have decided to set up a ministry to deal with the problems of the non-resident Gujaratis," he said.

He denied that the NRIs who had met him in the last two days had expressed concern about the law and order situation in the state.

"Nobody has mentioned this to me. They are ready to invest and they only need the environment to do so. We are going to set up a single window system to help them in setting up industries in Gujarat," he said.

Understanding the Unnatural Alliance of America & Pakistan

Both the United States and Pakistan have claimed that last week's clash between their troops at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border near Angoor Adda was a misunderstanding. Pakistan Army spokesman Major General Rashid Qureshi said the incident between local paramilitary troops and US troops is under investigation. A week after his statement I asked Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri about the investigation. His answer was interesting. Kasuri said some conspirators had tried their best to exploit the incident to sabotage friendly relations between the United States and Pakistan, but they had failed. I insisted my old friend Kasuri identify the conspirators. He smiled and whispered, "the Indian lobby."

Kasuri may be unaware that a resolution against the US was passed after the Angoor Adda incident by the North West Frontier Province provincial assembly which the Islamic parties control. The minister said he would visit the US from January 29 and meet US Secretary of State Colin Powell to promote a better relationship between the two countries. "Why are thousands of Pakistanis in the US ill-treated by the FBI these days?" I asked him. Kasuri confessed that Pakistanis in the US are facing problems and said, "I will ask Powell to accord special status to Pakistanis in the US because we are their major partners in the war against terror."

Kasuri is not wrong. Pakistan has handed over more than 443 people (most of them foreigners) to the US after September 11, 2001. But I am sure Powell will not oblige Kasuri. The Americans don't feel shy about buying 'partners' without love and friendship. There is no free lunch in America.

Very few people can deny that the FBI ill-treats Pakistanis not only in the US but also in their own country. Many Pakistanis know the FBI arrested a doctor in Lahore without a warrant. Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League(Q), condemned the FBI raids inside Pakistan, but Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali and Foreign Minister Kasuri are not ready to accept that the FBI conducted raids in Pakistan. Just two months after coming into power, Jamali and Kasuri are speaking in voices very different from their party president. 

Chaudhry Hussain's anti-FBI statements reflect popular sentiment in Pakistan while the prime minister and foreign minister's statements reveal the constraints of a government which partners a superpower in the war against terrorism. Dr Khwaja Ahmed Javed is now in custody. Well informed sources claim the FBI wanted Javed extradited but Pakistani officials refused to hand him over without solid proof. That was the turning point in US-Pakistan relations.

A few days later, the US sent Pakistan a message by bombing a deserted religious school in South Wazirastan. This is where eight Pakistan army personnel were killed some months ago when trying to capture Uzbek Al Qaeda fighters. After the bombing US troops tried to enter Pakistani territory but Pakistani scouts opened fire, injuring one US soldier. A spokesman for the US forces at Bagram air base in Afghanistan said American soldiers were pursuing their attackers who escaped to Pakistan. Pakistan denied this the next day. The State Department did not expect such a firm stand from Islamabad. 

How could the US lose Pakistan in a situation when Taliban and Al Qaeda are regrouping in Afghanistan and attacking US troops? Many believe senior State Department official Richard Haass, then visiting India, was asked to pacify Pakistan. Haass advised India to start a dialogue with Pakistan's new civilian government. His statement was an effort to dispel the impression that relations between Pakistan and US were tense. Chaudhry Hussain issued another anti-FBI statement. 

The next day The New York Times published a report against Munir Akram, Pakistan's permanent representative at the United Nations. The allegations against him were not very serious because the complainant reconciled with him later. But the State Department demanded strict action against Akram. It is difficult for the Pakistan foreign office to punish Akram because he is a Swiss national. The foreign office spokesman said the allegations against Akram are the result of a misunderstanding. Many in Islamabad think differently. They believe the 'attack' on Akram with the help of a very old complaint is actually the answer for Angoor Adda and Chaudhry Hussain's statements.

The ground realities of Pakistani politics suggest that an alliance between Pakistan and US is not natural. The US thinks militancy in Jammu and Kashmir is terrorism while Pakistan claims it is a freedom struggle. When Haass says India and Pakistan should restart a dialogue most Pakistanis see a conspiracy in his statement. The Pakistani masses are not ready to accept the US as their friend. 

When Haass came to Islamabad last year I met him at lunch. I asked why the US imposed sanctions against Pakistan after Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan? "There were no Taliban and no Al Qaeda in 1990 when you used the Pressler Amendment against Pakistan. What was your problem at that time?" I asked Haass. He was silent. Pakistanis know the US was then against their nuclear programme. Pakistan still receives more assistance from the US than China, but Pakistanis don't consider the US their friend. They say 'Pak-China dosti zindabad.' 

The US can win over governments in Pakistan, but not its people. The US-Pakistan partnership is without roots, and plants without roots never grow.

India is like a Banyan Tree

Minutes after Nobel laureate Amartya Sen enthralled audience at the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas, Rajat Gupta, CEO of Mckinsey, and business guru Professor C K Prahalad took to the stage.Gupta compared India to a Banyan tree, which "grows in a particular way".

He said Indians abroad should be like the roots of a Banyan tree. As the roots mature the mother tree gets more support. And India's cultural diversity, sense of belonging and other Indian values make the canopy. He said Banyan is also one of the longest living trees in the world.

Prof Prahalad said he thinks of Mahatma Gandhi as a strategist who 'broke all traditions'. Having realised that he could not beat the British with force, 'he unleashed the force of ordinary people', Prahalad said, calling on the Indian government to imbibe lessons from non-resident Indians and people of Indian origin.

He said just as Gandhi understood freedom, 'we [PIOs/NRIs] have a different view of India'.He said an economic growth of 6 or 8 per cent is not enough if India wants to be a modern nation by 2020. "We have to invent new ways, let us change the paradigm."

Prahalad said India should have the ability to reinvent and 'we have to continuously struggle to change'."In my view Indianness is very clear: it is being the best of breed, it is about personal excellence," Prahalad said.

He wrapped up invoking Tamil poet Thiruvalluvar: "Even if fate will otherwise, perseverance and hard work will succeed."