Web services are expected to take off in a serious way by 2002 and the majority will be based on Java rather than Microsoft's .Net alternative, according to a poll of enterprise IT professionals run by ZDNet UK's Tech Update channel.

More than two-thirds of the respondents (69.5 percent), at the time of writing this report, plan to deliver some applications for Web-enabled services by the end of 2002. A large majority of those (nearly half the total sample) are planning to use Java. Only 21.5 percent plan to use Microsoft .Net, less than the figure (23.5 percent) planning to use neither. Adding to the figures, a small fraction (6.8%) plan to use both the applications.

The idea of using Internet as a medium of delivering access to business applications, instead of proprietary terminals has been gaining importance over recent years. Java technology, launched by Sun and backed by IBM and BEA, has been the first into the market, with Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE) designed specially for business use. In comparision, Microsoft's .Net platform is very recent. Both the technologies (JAVA & .Net) make use of XML to communicate with the applications, but do so differently.

Although efforts are underway to ensure compatibility between the two methods, it appears that enterprise IT professionals are dividing into separate camps. One respondent asked why the survey wanted to know which technology they planned to use, saying "surely the point is that it doesn't matter." The evidence is that it does matter: The group intending to use both is small (6.8 percent).

The survey response can be an answer to some critics who have said that the whole Web services idea is no more than a rehash of earlier efforts at distributed computing. Some critics have predicted that Web services are a low-returns investment, especially as the recession has forced end-user companies to cut back on new projects. But high user interest at a time when budgets are tight suggests that people are ready to believe vendors' claims that Web services will deliver needed functionality more cost-effectively than other methods.

However, it is still early days for Web-enabled technology and services. Microsoft has many cards to play yet. It will try to establish its Web services languages and interfaces as standards as far as possible, both through market share (by bundling .Net components in its client software), and through formal standards bodies (the C# language was ratified by the European standards group ECMA this month. For more on C#, please click here).

From the survey results, it seems that Java proponents are succeeding in establishing their technology businesses. However, Microsoft has built its way to the center of businesses using a desktop toehold before. Whether it cashes upon it is yet to be seen.