An Attempt to Quantify Greatness
by Kirk Allen
September 5, 2000
Recently in a chatroom, I had a sort of argument with someone who claimed that Stan Musial
was the greatest player of all-time. I, of course, said it was Babe Ruth, which most people would
agree with. Anyway, this Musial supporter made me want to prove that Babe Ruth was, in fact,
the best. Starting a research project with a pre-conceived notion is not advisable, especially
when you're making up the "experiment" yourself. I tried to keep it fair just incase
someone like Ted Williams or Mickey Mantle still had a shot at the title.
Before I go further, I should thank the people at Total Baseball,
where I got the names of players I hadn't heard of, and
Baseball Reference, who have great stats for every player.
I decided to compare the players to their league, rather than just going by the raw numbers.
This seems fair since the 1930's were a hitters' era and the 1960's were a pitchers' era, for
example. I also wanted to do it so that it balanced peak value vs. career value (the
classic Mantle vs. Mays debate). People who were really good for a shorter time compete
well with people who were only pretty good for a longer time. The results are a little skewed
as you get towards about the 50th best person, but I think it works great near the top.
Next, I decided what I considered to be the most important offensive categories.
I choose on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (slug%), RBI, runs, and stolen bases (SB).
Since not all stats are created equal, I weighted the categories accordingly. OBP
is the most important since there is a slight favoring to it over slug%. This is evidenced by the
fact that (1.2*OBP + slug%) correlates better with runs scores than just OPS (OBP + slug%).
I choose OBP over batting average because walks are included. I choose slug% because it
incorporates all types of hits, rather than just choosing HR or doubles as a category. The next
two stats (RBI, runs) depend on team success, but they are readily available and everyone
knows what they mean. Finally, I took SB because I wanted at least one category that is considered
to be part of an "all-around" game for a player. Also, I should mention that runs and SB should
both be considered part of an "all-around" game because they represent baserunning skills.
Now, I weighted the stats as discussed in the above paragraph. I assigned points to the
players based on their standing in the league for each year they played. For OBP, I awarded one
point for 5th place, 2 for 4th, .. up to 5 points for 1st place. The other stats descend, such
that slug% is on a 4-3-2-1 scale, RBI on 3-2-1, runs on 2-1, and SB on 1.
I also decided to rate the pitchers. Their scores are calculated in the same way, and
I choose, in order 1. ERA, 2. Wins, 3. Strikeouts, 4. (BB + H)/9ip (same as WHIP),
and 5. Shutouts. ERA is the obvious choice for #1. ERA could be on
about a 10 point scale instead of 5, with wins still just on the 4 point scale. But, I wanted
the numbers for hitters and pitchers to come out about even, so I just went with it. Wins, again,
depend on team success, so it's a reward for playing on a good team and pitching deep into games. Strikeouts represent
dominance, as do shutouts. I choose WHIP because it was there and I needed
another stat.
Now for the results..
Hitters G OBP Slug% RBI Runs SB Total Pos.
1 Babe Ruth 2503 64 57 27 18 0 166 OF
2 Ty Cobb 3035 62 45 17 13 6 143 OF
3 Ted Williams 2292 65 46 17 13 0 141 OF
4 Roger Hornsby 2259 53 44 16 11 0 124 2B
5 Stan Musial 3026 63 37 9 14 0 120 UT/OF
6 Lou Gehrig 2164 42 31 24 11 0 108 1B
7 Honus Wagner 2792 34 37 21 6 5 103 SS
8 Cap Anson 2523 47 17 33 0 0 97 1B
9 Dan Brouthers 1673 44 37 11 4 0 96 1B
10 Mel Ott 2730 44 29 12 5 0 90 OF
--
11 Mickey Mantle 2401 38 33 4 14 0 89 OF
12 Frank Robinson 2808 40 25 13 8 0 86 OF
13 Hank Aaron 3298 17 40 20 7 0 84 OF
14 Mike Schimdt 2404 23 33 23 4 0 83 3B
15 Tris Speaker 2789 52 22 3 4 0 81 OF
16 Jimmie Foxx 2317 37 28 12 4 0 81 1B
17 Willie Mays 2992 20 31 7 10 4 72 OF
18 Johnny Mize 1884 20 31 14 3 0 68 1B
19 Ed Delahanty 1835 23 29 14 0 1 67 OF
20 Nap Lajoie 2480 23 26 13 3 0 65 2B
Pitchers IP ERA W K WHIP Shutout Total
1 Lefty Grove 3940 78 25 24 12 3 142
2 Walter Johnson 5915 45 35 41 10 7 138
3 Warren Spahn 5244 33 47 14 9 4 107
4 Roger Clemens 3462 38 25 27 9 6 105
5 Christy Mathewson 4781 36 33 17 11 4 101
6 Pete Alexander 5190 29 28 22 11 7 97
7 Cy Young 7355 36 30 13 9 7 95
8 Tom Seaver 4783 27 24 19 8 2 80
9 Bob Feller 3827 18 26 21 9 4 78
10 Sandy Koufax 2324 25 14 17 9 3 68
--
11 Greg Maddux 3069 31 21 6 6 3 67
11 Nolan Ryan 5386 16 4 39 5 3 67
13 Dazzy Vance 2967 18 11 25 8 4 66
14 Carl Hubbell 3590 21 19 11 12 1 64
14 Steve Carlton 5217 16 25 21 1 1 64
16 Amos Wilson Rusie 3770 19 12 17 6 4 58
17 Kid Nichols 5056 20 22 3 10 3 58
18 Tim Keefe 5047 26 22 1 7 1 57
18 Robin Roberts 4689 18 21 9 8 1 57
20 Lefty Gomez 2503 23 15 12 3 3 56
For the complete list (146 hitters, 71 pitchers), Click Here.
I'm sure I've missed some worthy candidates, but hopefully I got all the big ones. If you know
someone good I missed, let me know and I'll add him. Also, mention any current players you think
might score well and I'll add them as well. I define a utility player as someone who did not
play more than two-thirds of his games at one position. The position listed along with UT
is the one at which they played the most games.
I think my work has pretty well proven that Babe Ruth is the best hitter of all-time. I know
Ted Williams missed about 4 seasons due to military service, but Babe Ruth also pitched about 4
years for the Red Sox (earning 13 points in my system). I think it's safe to
say that both Ruth and Williams would both had padded their stats about equally with 4 extra years,
enough to push Williams past Ty Cobb into 2nd place. Also, note that except for SB, Ruth
is 1st (slug%, runs) or 2nd (OBP, RBI) in all the categories.
Aside from the Babe Ruth Question, what else can we learn from these numbers? Here are some
more interesting notes about this information..
• Best scores by position..
1st Team
RHP Walter Johnson 138
LHP Lefty Grove 142
C Johnny Bench 16
1B Lou Gehring 108
2B Rogers Hornsby 124
3B Mike Schmidt 83
SS Honus Wagner 103
LF Ted Williams 141
CF Ty Cobb 143
RF Babe Ruth 166
UT Stan Musial 120
2nd Team 3rd Team
RHP Roger Clemens 105 P Christy Mathewson 101
LHP Warren Spahn 107 P Pete "G.C." Alexander 97
C Roger Breshanan 13 C Mickey Cochrane 12
1B Cap Anson 97 1B Dan Brouthers 96
2B Nap Lajoie 65 2B Eddie Collins 56
3B Wade Boggs 46 3B Eddie Matthews 34
SS Arky Vaughan 33 SS Luke Appling 18
LF Mel Ott 90 LF Tris Speaker 81
CF Mickey Mantle 89 CF Willie Mays 72
RF Frank Robinson 86 RF Hank Aaron 84
UT Harmon Killebrew 51 UT Rod Carew 40
• Were players better before World War 2? The first team has 7 pre-War and 3 post-War members.
Fluke? Maybe, as the 2nd team is equal pre- and post-War. Of course, I think one could easily
make the argument that it was easier to dominate before WW2 because there were no blacks
and few Hispanics. Considering this, it's probable that players today are, relatively speaking,
just as good as players of yesteryear.
• The best pitcher of all time? I'll just call it a tie between Lefty Grove and Walter
Johnson, since they only differ by 4 points and are head-and-shoulders above 3rd place Warren
Spahn. I was surprised to see Clemens so high, far above Koufax, who is often considered the
best pitcher of the last 50 years. In this respect, Clemens should pass Warren Spahn this year
or next if he can pitch respectably (earning a few points in ERA or K's). Also, Greg Maddux should
easily pass Koufax and can make a run at Tom Seaver.
• What about the other active players? Randy Johnson may crack the Top 20 this year, as
he trails Robin Roberts by only 8 points. He's already 37 years old, but I can see him finishing
around Koufax/Ryan territory (close to 70 points). David Cone is in the company of Hall of Famers
with 39 points. Bob Gibson (42), Whitey Ford (42), Juan Marachal (40), Dizzy Dean (38), and Don
Drysdale (35) are his famous neighbors. Interestingly, Bert Blyleven is also at 39. I imagine
Cone will be stuck at 39 if this year is any indication, so it should be interesing to see if
Cone becomes a Blyleven (borderline HOF at best) or a Gibson (a sure-fire HOF to most people).
Pedro Martinez is already at 32, so he has a shot to go way up there in the next 10 years. Others?
Tom Glavine (27) can get up to 40 or 50 with 3 to 5 good years. Dwight Gooden (30)
and Orel Hershiser (24, just retired) are probably HOF outsiders.
• Among active hitters, Rickey Henderson is first at 62, with Barry Bonds poised to pass him
at 59 (23rd place). Bonds has a good shot to catch his godfather, Willie Mays (72 points, 17th place).
The rejuvinated Frank Thomas is next with 49 points after 2 down years. Mark McGwire checks in
with only 40 points, thanks to some bad years in the early 90's. He also loses credit for the
year he was traded to St. Louis because he didn't qualify for either league's stats. Considering
his health, McGwire will find it tough to get above 60. Tony Gwynn the best hitter since Ted
Williams?? Not with only 21 points.. Jose Canseco has 17. Cal Ripken has only 6, fifth among SS.
But, he's obviously one of the best SS of all-time offensively. It's just that it's hard for SS
to get high rankings since it's a demanding defensive position.
Well there you have it.. What do you think of my work? I'd be interested to hear from you.
Hit the Contact link at the bottom to drop me a line..
Y2K Update
October 3, 2000
With the 2000 season over, I updated the scores of all active players in the list. There were
some significant moves. For hitters, only Frank Thomas (4) and Barry Bonds (7) earned points. Barry
move into the Top 20 and is now only 6 points behind Willie Mays. Thomas is now tied with Joe
Dimaggio at #26 (53 points).
I also added Sammy Sosa (13 points), Jeff Bagwell (32 points), and Mike Piazza (12 points)
to the list. Piazza actually earned 0 this year, which means I should have included him last year
and placed him tied with Mickey Cochrane as 3rd best catcher. Bagwell is pretty impressive but far
from a true all-time great, especially at 1st base. Sosa hasn't done much except hit homeruns really,
which is why he has no points for OBP and not even alot for slug%, considering his repuation.
The pitching was even more significant, with Pedro, Maddux, Glavine, Clemens,
and Randy Johnson all earning points. Pedro had another amazing season, earning 12 of a possible
15 points. Combined with his 14 last year, he has 26 points in 2 years. That's truly historic.
This has moved him ahead of Bob Gibson into #31. If he stays healthy, the sky's the limit. As predicted,
Clemens edged ahead of Warren Spahn thanks to his 2nd place finish in ERA. Clemens now stands as
#3 all-time, but there's no way he'll catch #2 Walter Johnson.
Greg Maddux moved into the Top 10, knocking out Sandy Koufax. Maddux trails Tom Seaver by
only 7 points, so you have to figure he'll get that in 2001 or 2002 easily. Meanwhile, Randy
Johnson cracked the Top 20, now tied at #18 with Robin Roberts and Tim Keefe. He wll
have to reach 78 points to tie Bob Feller (currently #9, probably drops to #10 next year). This
will be tough, but one great season can reach Koufax (68 points, #11).
Click Here to view the updated list.
Hall of Fame Update
January 13, 2001
With the Hall of Fame elections coming up soon, I decided to give my rankings a Hall of Fame
tilt. As I mentioned above, the rankings get skewed as you go further down based on positional
adjustments and high peak values (a couple really good seasons, surrounded by mediocrity). That said,
I still think some interesting information can be gathered.
Who is the best player not in the hallowed Hall? In terms of pure score, it's Shoeless Joe,
who comes in at 45. Considering that he (probably) broke the most fundamental rule of the sport,
I don't think he deserves in, regardless of score. Who's next? Well, it's Pete Rose at 36 points.
See a pattern developing? Well, anyway, it stops here. The highest score of someone who might
deserve to be in the Hall is Dale Murphy at 30 points, followed closely by Jim Rice at 29.
Murphy
is interesting because he had an extremely high peak value. He was definately one of the top players
in the NL from 1982-1987, but he wasn't really that great afterward. Is 6 seasons enough for the Hall?
Probably not. Jim Rice's peak is probably not quite as good as Murphy since it wasn't consistent.
He was good in 1976, great in '77 - '79, and then just good or slightly less for the rest of his
career. If you like to take defense reputation into account, consider that Murphy won 5
consecutive Gold Gloves, whereas Rice won zero. Since I don't consider Murphy
Hall-worthy, it's impossible to give Rice a plaque.
Since Jackson, Murphy, Rice, and Rose are outfielders, it's easy to see that positional
adjustments should be made to determine who is really deserving. From my rankings, Murphy is the
28th best outfielder (probably about 8-10 among centerfielders) and Rice is 31st (something like
11-13 among leftfielders).
So who is really the most deserving? Believe it or not, it's Ron Santo. He ranks 5th among
third basemen, which also happens to be the most under-represented group in the Hall with only 9
regular 3rd basemen. There are 2 other what I call "utility" 3rd basemen, but Santo is better than
both of them also (counting Molitor as already in the Hall, which he will be). Santo has a pretty
solid case. His peak was pretty long (1964-1972) but not exactly spectacular. Still, it was solid
and consistent. He made 9 All-Star teams and won 5 Gold Gloves, so it's obvious that he was among
the best 3rd basemen during his time.
The next best player is Gary Carter, who is 7th among catchers. However, if you include Joe
Torre (utility catcher), he is the best catcher not elected, ranked 5th. But he actually only played
about 40% of his games at catcher. He'll probably make it in as a manager anyway.
The best pitcher not in the Hall is Bert Blyleven, ranked as the 39th best pitcher. Much has
been written about him lately, so I'll just mention that he's among the unluckiest pitchers of
all-time, yet he still nearly reached 300 wins. Also, his relative ERA numbers are comparable to
Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton, both of whom are in and deserving (although Sutton is slightly borderline).
The next-best pitcher is Ron Guidry, who is kinda the Dale Murphy of pitchers. Let's just leave
it at that. Then there is Hippo Vaughn. I hadn't heard of him, and I think I just happened to click
his name because he was listed as similar to some Hall of Famer (Rube Waddell maybe). His best years were for the 1910's Cubs,
but he also
pitched a little for the Yankees before that. He lead the league in ERA once and was near the top
a few other times, but he wasn't really great and not deserving by any stretch that I know of.
I realize that, since my list is not intended to
be all-inclusive, I may be missing players who would rank better than the ones I have discussed.
I still think it's interesting and pretty accurate.
Politics of Glory Update
January 25, 2001
I recently read Bill James' book Politics of Glory (1995 edition), which is all about the Hall of Fame.
If you haven't read it yet, you need to check it out. It has several systems to evaulate
a player's worthiness and likelihood of being elected. My system is like a combination of his Black Ink
Test (in the book) and the Gray Ink Test (not sure if he developed that one). I'm not sure if
I had ever heard of these systems before I came up with mine. Mine is definately different. I am
more interested in how good a player actually was, rather than whether or not he's considered
good by the media, etc. So, I just have a different purpose, and that's a good thing.
The book gave me a resource to get a few new players.
Some of these players are probably deserving of being elected to the Hall of Fame based on
my system. Some comments on the interesting players..
• Gavy Cravath (OF, 42 points) - He now becomes the 2nd best player not in the Hall, and the best
among those eligible (remember, Shoeless Joe is first). He didn't reach the majors until he was 28
and didn't become a regular until he was 31. Still, he managed to lead the league in homers 6 times
in 7 years (1913-1919). I doubt any other non-Hall of Famers can make a claim even close to that.
Still, his career is probably just too short..
• Dick Allen (UT/1B, 41 points) - Right behind Gavy, he was one of those guys that was a "cancer
in the clubhouse" (whatever that means). Considering he played almost as many games at 3B as 1B,
he might deserve to be in to help alleviate the shortage of third basemen..
• Bucky Walters (P, 40 points) - Overtakes Blyleven as the best pitcher not enshrined. A converted
third basemen, he didn't start pitching until he was 25. Otherwise, he would probably be an easy
selection. He won an MVP and probably would have had at least 2 (maybe 3) Cy Young's if they
were around back then (1930's and '40's)..
• Minnie Minoso (OF, 24 points) - He came to the majors late because of racism, and I think he
hurts himself with his comebacks so that he could be the only person to play in 5 decades (40's
through 80's). That makes him look like a bit of a joke. If he was white and knew when to quit,
he would probably be in the Hall of Fame..
• Dwight Evans (OF, 22 points) - Former Red Sox (Sock?), his numbers just aren't impressive
enough for an outfielder..
• Stan Hack (3B, 18 points) - Could be another good choice to help fill the gap at 3B. Also a
Cub, like Santo..
Y2K1 Update
February 18, 2002
I am extremely late in getting everything together for my update to the 2001 season. I put everything into Excel now
that I have a new computer, which helps to eliminate errors and also allows me to add several features. Now for the results..
The story obviously has to start with Barry Bonds, who turned in probably the single greatest season in history. Leading
the league in OBP and slug %, he earned 9 points to place him 18th all-time. He has a good chance to get up to 12th, but the
top 10 is still a bit of a stretch since it is 20 points away. Sammy Sosa increased his total to 24 points. He is beginning
to enter the borderline area for HOF candidacy. More significantly in my opinion, he earned points for OBP for the
first time in his career. With his new-found plate discipline, I would not be shocked to see Sosa end up somewhere in the
neighborhood of 50 points and earn first-ballot HOF.
Among pitchers, the most significant move was by Randy Johnson. He now stands at 11th place all-time, one spot ahead of
Koufax, an increase of 7 places from last year. He trails Greg Maddux by 6 points for the 10th position, and both players
should pass Bob Feller in the next year or two. Unfortunately, Pedro Martinez's injury prevented him from earning any
points this year and we have to wait to see if he can use another historic season to vault into the top 20.
Now for something completely different.. To get the most out of the data, I came up with a second way to rank the players.
I wanted a system that further balanced career worth versus peak value. For every player, I calculated the points per season
and per game (per inning for pitchers). I then ranked the players in terms of overall points (the original system), points
per season and points per game (or innings). To see who "wins" under this system, I average the rankings for the 3 categories. A
lower score is better (just like the BCS). The Top 10..
Hitters Overall Per Season Per Game Average
1 Babe Ruth 1 1 1 1
2 Ted Williams 3 2 2 2.33
3 Ty Cobb 2 4 6 4
4 Rogers Hornsby 4 5 4 4.33
5 Lou Gehrig 6 3 5 4.67
6 Stan Musial 5 6 7 6
7 Dan Brouthers 9 8 3 6.67
8 Mickey Mantle 10 7 8 8.33
9 Honus Wagner 7 9 10 8.67
10 Jimmie Foxx 14 14 12 13.33
Pitchers
1 Lefty Grove 1 1 1 1
2 Roger Clemens 3 3 2 2.67
3 Walter Johnson 2 2 6 3.33
4 Christy Mathewson 5 4 10 6.33
5 Sandy Koufax 12 6 3 7
6 Warren Spahn 4 7 11 7.33
7 Randy Johnson 11 8 5 8
8 Greg Maddux 10 10 9 9.67
9 Pete Alexander 6 9 15 10
10 Bob Feller 9 13 12 11.33
Hitters.. The system gives a clear advantage to Ted Williams over Ty Cobb, since Williams played far fewer games in fewer
seasons due to military time. However, Babe Ruth's dominance is still evident since he leads in all categories. I still
feel it would be difficult to devise any objective system under which The Babe is not the greatest player of all-time. This
new system appears to favor pre-WW2 players heavily, just as the overall rankings do near the top. Clearly, with
fewer games in a season, the Per Game ranking is favored toward older players. This is especially evident for Dan Brouthers,
who ranks 3rd in that category since the 19th century seasons were only around 100 games. Perhaps this is something
which needs adjustment for future research. As a side note, Barry Bonds ranks 14th in this system.
Pitchers.. Lefty Grove is the Babe Ruth of pitchers. He doesn't get the respect because he played in a lively ball era
and reached the majors at a very late age. Unlike the hitters, these rankings seem to favor more recent pitchers. I think
the reason is fairly obvious -- pitchers today don't pitch as many innings per season. This puts 3 active pitchers in the Top 10.
In this era of inflated offense, is it possible we could be witnessing a golden age of pitching?? Something to think about..
Y2K2 Update
December 4, 2002
Here are the players who earned points in my system during 2002:
Barry Bonds (9 points in 2002, 83 total) - Obviously, any discussion of hitters has to start here. Bonds led the league in OBP & slug%
once again, and the competition wasn't even close. Bonds moved into a tie with Hank Aaron for 13th all-time.
He has a legitimate shot of reaching the Top 10 (95 points) with 2 more good years. It doesn't look like he's slowing
down with age.
Manny Ramirez (8 in 2002, 28 total) - Injuries limited Manny's counting stats, but he was at or near the top in OBP
and slug% once again.
Jim Thome (8 in 2002, 25 total) - Thome turned in another strong year without much fanfare. It will be interesting to
see how he fares in the National League where it will be tough to lead the league with Bonds around. Thome is a new
addition to my list this year, and he stands a good chance to reach the Top 10 among first basemen (currently 14th).
Alex Rodriguez (6 in 2002, 15 total) - A-Rod now ranks 4th among Shortstops and will reach 2nd place easily barring injury.
Unfortunately, he had a poor final month which saw him lose points in OBP & slug%. It still stands as one of the greatest
SS seasons ever.
Jason Giambi (4 in 2002, 20 total) - Considering he started his career a little late (debut at age 24), the best thing that could happen to Giambi's HOF chances
is playing for the Yankees. The extra attention and potential for post-season fireworks should make up for the fact that he
may struggle to reach Top 10 status among 1B.
Sammy Sosa (3 in 2002, 27 total) - It was a pretty quiet year, considering he led the league in HR again.
Randy Johnson (12 in 2002, 83 total) - Another Triple Crown for the Unit pushed him into 8th all-time, one ahead of
Greg Maddux thanks to the huge edge in K's. Like Bonds, he continues to defy the natural laws of aging. It would be an
injustice to refer to him as the next Nolan Ryan.. an injustice to Johnson, that is.
Pedro Martinez (11 in 2002, 56 total) - The only question for Pedro remains his health, which showed only minor flaws
in 2002. He could reach as high as #12 overall next year (currently #21) if he stays healthy.
Curt Schilling (7 in 2002, 27 total) - Schilling is a rare player in that he only good during his 20's but became
great during his 30's. If he reaches 200 career wins, he'll probably make the Hall. That may prove difficult as he currently
has only 155 wins at age 35.
Greg Maddux (5 in 2002, 82 total) - Another respectable year from the guy who's never flashy but always gets the job done.
Tom Glavine (4 in 2002, 35 total) - Glavine stands a chance to reach 300 wins if he goes to a team that will put him in
a position to win games. At worst, he'll make the HOF as the lesser member of one of the greatest pitching combos ever.
Roger Clemens (2 in 2002, 115 total) - The best pitcher since WW2 continues to strike people out. As long as he stays in
the AL, where only Pedro strikes out anyone, he will continue to rank among the league leaders.
Here is an update of how the rankings look after the 2002 season in terms of total points:
Position 1st team 2nd team 3rd team
C Johnny Bench Roger Bresnahan Mike Piazza
1B Lou Gehrig Cap Anson Dan Brouthers
2B Rogers Hornsby Nap Lajoie Eddie Collins
3B Mike Schmidt Wade Boggs George Brett
SS Honus Wagner Arky Vaughan Luke Appling
OF Babe Ruth Mickey Mantle Barry Bonds
Ty Cobb Mel Ott Hank Aaron
Ted Williams Frank Robinson Willie Mays
UT Stan Musial H. Killebrew Dick Allen
RHP Walter Johnson Roger Clemens Christy Mathewson
LHP Lefty Grove Warren Spahn Randy Johnson
copyright 2000-2001-2002, Kirk Allen