Even a mediocre player knows the probabilities of 3-3, 4-2 or 3-1 split in a suit and most of us wisely base our play on probabilities. But how do these dry numbers behave when one or two hands have very rare distributions? Do the probabilities really remain the same, or maybe, just maybe, they become alive and kicking, and you can't trust them any more? Despite the fact that I've been teaching statistics and probability on high school and college level for ages, and maybe because of it, I often wonder. And whenever I see a rare distribution, I must consider rare distributions in other hands as well. The following hand occurred in a big international tournament few years ago:
AJ2 K W N E S
KJ10852 N - 1D 1S
2 W E AK1098653 2H - 3D -
J62 S A974 3H - 3S(1) -
3NT - - -
(1) asks for a spade stopperI wouldn't have anything to write about if my partner, a well known Dutch pro, had weaker nerves, as did most of the players around, but he recognized the misfits and smartly decided that 3NT was high enough. North led a spade, I overtook the King with the Ace, played my only diamond and put the 8 on a small one from North. South discarded a heart. So maybe, when things look weird, you shouldn't hurry but stop, think over even the seemingly obvious situations, and consider every single option? 
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