FLAT DEAL
by Aleksander Wagner
IMP's, I was South, the hand I held was quite boring: AQ7, KJ84, 83, J732, and after the following bidding I was supposed to lead against 3NT:
E S W N
----------------------------
1D x xx 1H
1NT p 2NT p
3NT p p p
The lead looks so clear cut that thinking about it seems like a waste of time - shouldn't we lead automatically the 4 of hearts? Of course if for whatever reason we want to make our partner think of terminating our partnership, we'll lead a club, and if against all odds club is the only lead that defeats the contract we'll tell him again how much he has to learn...
I had no such intentions but somehow my instincts told me to stop and think. My partner probably had no more than 5-6 points. If they were in hearts it made no difference which heart I put on the table. But if he had no points in hearts it could make quite a difference, even though with four small hearts he didn't have to bid 1H. I decided to lead the King of hearts and my reasons were as follows:
(1) Any heart lead probably gives them another quick trick (bidding says East has at least one heart stopper, which could mean AQx, A10xx, or else), but there would be a heart lead on each table so I couldn't care less.
(2) Putting a heart honor on the table opens the heart suit even if West has 10x in hearts.
(3) King of hearts works against 10x and protects against singleton Queen.
I couldn't have been more wrong! Look what I saw in the dummy:
J10xx
AQx N
KJx W E
10xx S
AQ7
KJ84
83
J732
Ace from the dummy, small spade, 9 from East. I took with the Queen and had to think of what I saw. My RHO's 1NT looked quite out of place without a heart stopper, but now my lead appeared to be even better than I though! East had to have the 3253 distribution: I knew he had 10x in hearts and three spades (I saw the heart and spade counts my partner gave me), and with 44 in minors East opens 1C and not 1D. He should take five diamonds tricks even if he is missing a diamond honor assuming it's not the Ace. He certainly will take two spade tricks. And he's got two heart tricks. All that remains uncertain is the club position.
If East has KQx I should continue with my Jack of hearts and we defeat him before he takes even one spade trick:
xxx
9xxx
xxx
Axx
J10xx K9x
AQx N 10x
KJx W E AQ10xx
10xx S KQx
AQ7
KJ84
83
J732
But if he's got Axx I should switch to clubs, otherwise he gives me another spade and comfortably makes 3NT!
xxx
9xxx
xxx
KQx
J10xx K9x
AQx N 10x
KJx W E AQ10xx
10xx S Axx
AQ7
KJ84
83
J732
I went with dry probabilities: 4 points are less than 5, one specific honor less than two, and who says all my partner's points are in clubs? So I chose the first option. Well, the reality was different and they made nine tricks. Nothing gained, nothing lost, the deal was completely flat - 400 for EW on all tables after the heart 4 lead. But was this deal really that flat? Judge for yourself.
