Jr. "A" Playoff Preview
Sunday July 6, 2003
#1 ST.CATHARINES VS #8 SIX NATIONS
#2 ORANGEVILLE VS #7 BRAMPTON
#3 TORONTO VS #6 PETERBOROUGH
#4 KITCHENER-WATERLOO VS #5 WHITBY
Jr. "A" Playoff PreviewPrevious Meetings: 2001 Final- St.Catharines 4 Six Nations 1 2000 Semi Final- St.Catharines 4 Six Nations 2 1998 Final- Six Nations 4 St.Catharines 3 1994 Quarter Final- St.Catharines 4 Six Nations 2 1993 Semi Final- St.Catharines 4 Six Nations 2 1992 Final- Six Nations 4 St.Catharines 0 1991 Final- St.Catharines 4 Six Nations 1 All Time Record- St.Catharines 23 games to 16. St.Catharines 5 series to 2 The most significant rivalry of the past dozen years resumes once again. No two clubs have met in more big series than this pair. An edge to St.Catharines, certainly in recent years when they've won despite not having as much talent. This season the talent gap is huge in favour of the Athletics. This series has similarities to Six Nations/Burlington two years ago. Like the Chiefs of 2001, the Arrows have been very good down the stretch, however they have traded away their top talent and there is no ignoring that fact. Thus you have the Double Blues beefing up another championship run, while the Arrows are looking to the future. Prediction: Six Nations may win a period but they will only play four games this post-season.
Previous meetings: 1994 Semi Final- Brampton 4 Orangeville 3 1992 Quarter Final- Brampton 4 Orangeville 0 1991 Quarter Final- Brampton 4 Orangeville 2 All Time Record- Brampton 12 games to 5. Brampton 3 series to 0 Orangeville's first six years in Jr.A they either met the Excelsiors in the playoffs or won the Minto Cup. Then the bottom fell out of Brampton lacrosse, though the Northmen have never won another Minto since. So this series is a nice opportunity for Orangeville to even some old scores. For Brampton, they looked like a very promising team a month ago. June has been a disappointment. The punishment is to have to face the high flying Northmen. Yet it is a challenge the Excelsiors should relish. If all their graduating players come to play, they could make things very interesting. That said, Colin Holbrough has already gone back to Sarnia. That still leaves the likes of Dostie, Forget, Orr and Souliere, however Orangeville have their own last year players(Culp, Dowdall & Jennings) plus they have more playoff experience and obviously more talent. So it is the Black Shirts series to win or lose. What Brampton needs is dominating play from Sean Orr on loose balls, outside shooting from Todd Bloxam to open up the middle for Andy Secore and someone like Brandon Smith stepping up to add scoring depth. The Excelsiors goaltenders do move the ball well, which makes Jamie Lincoln a threat but the Northmen are excellent at getting back on defence. Two years ago Orangeville faced a major rebuilding season yet waltzed through the regular season without missing a beat. Then came the playoffs and the Northmen made an abrupt exit after five games. This year Orangeville has been even better during the regular season and should not falter in the Quarter Finals. Still the playoffs are a brand new season. The offensive output of Merrill and Marchildon will be missed. Plus consider the struggle they had last year with Whitby. Put away your brooms folks. The Northmen are unbeatable when they have momentum. They carry that into this series. It's up to Brampton to make sure they aren't steamrolled by that momentum. As Friday's Brampton/Six Nations score indicates, the Excelsiors will be a much more focused bunch from now on. If they can turn momentum against Orangeville(as Peterborough did two years ago) then we will really see what the Northmen are made of. The one key player in this series will be Josh Agar. As his team's record indicates, he has been great. Still I've seen a couple of games in which he goes down far too early. Every goalie has the odd bad game. However it was goaltending that killed Orangeville two years ago. Prediction: The Northmen have had such an amazing year. Out of respect for that one must bet on them continuing to enjoy success in the playoffs. Nevertheless, all the pressure this series will be on Orangeville and that could make for a nervous six or seven games. This round will be the worst one on Lindsay Sanderson's stomach. Still, take the Black Shirts after six difficult games.
Previous Meetings: 2002 Semi Final- Toronto 4 Peterborough 3 1996 Quarter Final- Peterborough 3 Toronto 2 1995 Quarter Final- Peterborough 4 Toronto 3 1994 Quarter Final- Peterborough 4 Toronto 1 All Time Record- Peterborough 14 games to 10. Peterborough 3 series to 1 The Beach Boys finally beat Peterborough last year! They really were heartbreaking losses in '95 and '96 but those ghosts have been exorcised. Now it's time for the young Lakers to redeem themselves. Toronto's record of 12-8 is a shocking disappointment. Everyone expected this club to challenge St.Catharines and I had them rated as good as the defending champions. With that idea kaput Theory B is that Toronto is biding its time, waiting for the post season to get serious. I've been a big subscriber to that theory as well. The trouble is that 12-8 record. It really is terrible for such a highly ranked team. Consider their two tight wins against Peterborough. If one goes the Lakers way then both clubs finish 11-9. Putting all the above thinking aside, one must inevitably ask the obvious question: are the Beaches really as good as we all thought they would be? They did go to the Final last year, however they won two seven game series in which their opponents outscored them in both. Against Peterborough, three of the seven games went to overtime and Toronto won all of them. So how good are the Beach Boys? We'll soon find out. The Lakers have been a pleasant surprise. They have consistently improved all season long which makes them a dangerous playoff opponent. They've come a long way from their season opener when they were shorthanded and swamped by K-W. Considering that, compared to the Braves throwing their final game to Whitby and you could make a good case that Peterborough should have finished fourth. Records aside, the Lakers have won in Orangeville and taken St.Catharines to overtime. Yet the one thing they have been unable to do is win a tight game against Toronto. This is where this series will be decided. No doubt it will be close and competitive. The question is whether Peterborough can win their fair share of close games. That was what cost them last year and it will be their undoing this time if they do not meet Toronto's greatest strength head on. I don't think anybody expects the Beaches to magically turn their level of play up a notch. So it will be a question of composure under pressure - Toronto's greatest asset last season. Prediction: Toronto has six key players in their last year and I don't think they'll let their team falter so early on. Last season was suppose to be Peterborough's but the Lakers choked. This year should be the Beaches and I expect them to go at least one round. Toronto in seven(but it could just as easily be four straight, all by one goal).
Previous meetings: 1996 Quarter Final- Whitby 4 Kitchener-Waterloo 2 All Time Record- Whitby 4 games to 2. Whitby 1 series to 0 What can one say about the Warriors? They are good enough to give any team a long series but they are so inconsistent it's hard to imagine them actually winning four games. What can one say about the Braves? They clearly threw their final game against Whitby. Was that because they did not want the extra travel to Peterborough or because they aren't afraid of the Warriors? Whitby could certainly use that as added motivation. Of course K-W had every right to rest it's best players. But how well will cheating Ryan Benesch out of a scoring title go down in the locker room? I see the Warriors as the sleeping giant this post season. They have three great veterans who should give defences fits. Steven Hoar is the great playmaker, Josh Colley has the outside shot and Mark Craig is terrific at muscling in close. People conveniently forget how Hoar - Whitby's leading scorer - was knocked out of the first game of the Orangeville series last year by a dirty check from behind. I expect him to be on a mission this year. Colley has already won two Founder's Cups so he brings loads of playoff experience to the table. Plus we cannot forget Zack Greer soon to be back from the U19 championships. People talk about the Braves being the team of the future but they need the future to start now. A series win this year is crucial for them building for the future. We are talking about a team which has only won one playoff series in Jr.A and that was back in 1993. Smart moves adding Sean Pollock and Jeff Brownlee. Both have looked great so far. They give the Brown Shirts some much needed depth. The return of Andrew Watt will be very welcomed. He has not been a factor at all the second half of the year. I do have concerns about the Braves. They must lead the league in line changing! So you can call them a young, promising team but they have not been a exciting team when I've seen them. Another concern is how Joel Wilson's production has fallen of lately. K-W can't afford to have any of its stars go into the tank. Based on seeing this team twice lately, my impression is that they win with defence and their power play. So if Whitby can stay out of the box it is their series to take. But when have the Warriors consistently done anything this year? I'd suggest Jeff McComb bench Mike Calnan the moment he takes his first undiscipline penalty(he took four minors in the first period in their loss against the Braves). Prediction: It really is a pick'em series with anything being possible. I may be underrating the Braves but, except for Benesch and Mike Poulin, they have not impressed me at all. Whitby's Run n Gun offence may have fired blanks all year but if they can rediscover it and force an up tempo game then they should have an advantage. I expect the Warriors to be much more focused and Semi Final bound after six games.
SEMI FINALS St.Catharines: Two years ago Six Nations upset its team chemistry by importing a couple of players late. The Athletics took advantage and went on to win the Minto Cup. This season the Double Blues have brought in three players late(if I can count Benedict). On top of that they will have to find space when Sean Greenhalgh returns from school plus Craig Conn - who has spent more time in the penalty box than on the bench when he's played. Like the Arrows of 2001, there is no question that St.Catharines' talent is supreme. But is it a case of too many cooks in the kitchen? Still, the Arrows never had Matt Vinc. With that kind of goaltending to fall back on St.Catharines should again prove itself the best team in the OLA. Will that mean a league title? A Minto Cup? Given this year's Minto format, I'm not sure being the best will matter in the end. Orangeville: This is the one team with the great chemistry the A's had two year's ago. In a best of seven series, winner takes all, the Northmen are the lone OLA club which would give the Athletics a run for their money. Unfortunately the pair cannot meet in a meaningful best of seven series. Semi Final wise, Orangeville should have its hands full with Toronto Beaches. I expect the Northmen to peak once they escape their Quarter Final series. They should be Minto bound. Toronto: On paper this team has it all: experience, goaltending, size, defence and an ability to win close games. Their two playoff successes last year were due to extraordinary effort and composure. Their one big problem is St.Catharines. Luckily, if they can reach the Minto Cup they'd only face the A's in a best of three final. If another OLA team besides St.Catharines wins the Minto I'd pick Toronto. I think it'd be appropriate for the Beaches to be swept in the OLA Final but win the Canadian championship. Can't happen? A number of years ago I remember travelling to Orillia to watch Stu Finlayson's Kings beat Six Nations Red Rebels 19-5. A couple of weeks later Six Nations beat Orillia in a one game final to win the Founders Cup. For a betrayed Junior A purist, that Beaches prediction is my idea of poetic justice. Whitby: Keep in mind that K-W, Peterborough or Brampton could also be Semi Final bound. I will say that between the 5th, 6th and 7th place teams one will win a series and I would not be totally shocked if two won a series. If Whitby draw St.Catharines in the second round they will lose competitively. If upsets allow them to play another opponent then a Minto trip is possible - a slim possibility. Really, for the Warriors, a Quarter Final victory will be mission accomplished for this team. Greer and Company are going to be very good down the road.
FINAL & MINTO CUP As one who has trusted the people governing lacrosse to safeguard the traditions of the game and the integrity of the competition I feel very letdown. My pre-season pick was for St.Catharines to repeat as OLA champs. In the past I've usually gotten that pick right (not that one had to be a brain surgeon to pick the A's this year!). However I made that prediction before discovering that the OLA Final would be meaningless. The only prediction I'll make now is that I won't be attending any games and won't care who wins (that is a sad declaration given my years of passion for Jr.A lacrosse). The Minto Cup is still undecided. When I took the statistician job in 1996 I wanted to be the next Stan Shillington, doing stats every year alternating between Mann and Minto. I figured I could do it the next thirty years or more. Apparently in 2005 Ontario will not host the Minto nor the Mann Cup. So much for thirty years straight.
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