STRATFOR.com, Strategic Forecasting, June 26, 2002
Indonesia: Megawati Decision Shows Growing Ties to Military
Jakarta-based members of President Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic
Struggle Party (PDI-P) protested outside the City Council building after party officials
announced June 25 that the president will support Jakarta's incumbent governor,
Sutiyoso, for re-election. Local PDI-P chapters rejected Sutiyoso's bid, as they
believe the former military commander was responsible for a July 1996 police raid on
their headquarters that triggered widespread riots in the capital.
Disgruntled PDI-P members were not the only ones protesting. About 150 members of
the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) also demonstrated outside the City Council building
before heading to a nearby tourist district to smash signs advertising alcohol,
Indonesian media reported. The FPI has long criticized Sutiyoso for being "morally
tarnished" and for failing to enforce regulations prohibiting nightclubs and bars from
operating during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
That the FPI, the self-proclaimed defender of moral purity and Islamic values, and
elements of the PDI-P, Indonesia's pre-eminent secular pro-democracy party, are
agreeing on the issue of Sutiyoso sheds some light on the controversial path
Megawati is now treading and may point to future clashes in Indonesia.
Despite objections from the Jakarta cells of PDI-P, Megawati and the party's central
leadership chose to back Sutiyoso for reasons of security, a key party official told the
Jakarta Post. The PDI-P leadership wanted to ensure that the capital remained stable
during the 2004 general election and the annual session of the People's Consultative
Assembly in 2005, when the next Indonesian president will be chosen.
What the official failed to mention is that Megawati has grown ever more dependent
upon the military to maintain her position. Backing a former military commander --
particularly one who has survived the chaotic transitions of former presidents Suharto,
B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid -- will likely ensure her continued support from
the military.
Megawati's increasingly close links to the military, although necessary for her to stay
in power, are simultaneously straining ties within her own party and polarizing the
nation's factions between the secular nationalists -- the military, elements of the
PDI-P and the former ruling Golkar party -- and the Islamic nationalists, who are
championed not only by people like Vice President Hamzah Haz but also by militant
organizations like the FPI and the Laskhar Jihad.
As the Megawati-military alliance strengthens, the armed forces will eventually act to
protect the president -- and the nation's unity -- from the forces now tearing at
Indonesia's seams. This could lead to the military clamping down not just on Islamists
but ultimately on democratic and reform factions as well.
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