The Australian, August 26, 2004
Patrick Walters: Indonesia seen as biggest threat
MOST Australians see Indonesia as the country's biggest external security threat,
well ahead of China, according to a new study by the Australian Strategic Policy
Institute.
The study shows a steadily rising proportion of Australians view Indonesia as a
potential threat, notwithstanding the upswing in bilateral relations in the 1980s and
90s.
The study, Attitude Matters: public opinion in Australia towards defence and security,
shows widespread support for the ANZUS alliance as being crucial to Australia's
defence, particularly since the September 11 attacks.
The report cites figures from the Australian Electoral Survey - a poll of voters taken at
each general election - showing 31 per cent of respondents in 2001 considered
Indonesia to be "very likely" to pose a threat, compared with 9per cent for China.
The latest figures stand in stark contrast to surveys done in the late 1960s when
almost one-third of Australians regarded China as a threat, compared with fewer than
10 per cent nominating Indonesia.
"To all intents and purposes Indonesia has replaced China as the focus of the public's
threat assessment," the ASPI report concludes.
But the study, conducted by Ian McAllister of the Australian National University's
Research School of Social Sciences, also says fewer Australians see an external
security threat than at any time in the past 30 years.
"Recent international events that impinged on public opinion in other ways - the East
Timor crisis and 11 September being the most prominent - don't appear to have
altered that pattern," the report said.
It said public confidence in the defence force is at an all-time high.
According to the latest survey, 82per cent of respondents expressed confidence in the
defence force, compared with 67per cent two decades ago.
This level of public confidence puts the military far ahead of any other institution
except for the ABC, and compares with a steady decline in confidence in the legal
profession over a similar period.
Professor McAllister's research also shows the public has a low tolerance for military
casualties for operations that don't involve the direct defence of Australia.
"There is public sensitivity to any more than about 100 casualties, unless the
operation is defending Australia against a foreign aggressor."
In the defence of Australia, about four in 10 were prepared to accept unlimited
casualties while 27per cent would not accept any casualties.
On ANZUS, 58per cent of electoral survey respondents in 2001 considered the treaty
"very important" for protecting Australia's security.
* Patrick Walters is The Australian's National security editor
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