Background: At the time,
Baseball America rated the Red SoxÕ 1996 draft the best in the game.
Now it appears Stenson may be all they get out of that crop. The other
most promising prospects from that draft are all with other teams:
righthander Chris Reitsma (first round, now with the Reds), outfielder
John Barnes (fourth, Twins) and lefthander Rob Ramsay (seventh, Mariners).
And StensonÕs star has dimmed. He was named the best batting prospect
and No. 2 prospect in the Double-A Eastern League in 1998 and in the
Triple-A International League in 1999, but tailed off in a return
trip to the IL in 2000. USA Baseball inquired about adding Stenson
to the Olympic team, but the Red Sox didnÕt give their consentŠand
then didnÕt promote him in September. He missed time early in the
year with wrist and hamstring injuries.
Strengths: Stenson has the tools to be the
impact hitter the Red Sox desperately need in a lineup that has
just two, Nomar Garciaparra and Carl Everett. He has the balance,
bat speed, short stroke and pitch recognition to produce for both
average and power. Nobody in BostonÕs lineup can match StensonÕs
power potential. He didnÕt turn 22 until midseason, so heÕs still
ahead of the normal development cycle, and he has never been overmatched
despite consistently being one of the youngest players in his league.
He made decent progress against lefthanders in 2000 after struggling
against them the year before.
Weaknesses: For all his offensive gifts,
Stenson has batted .257, .268 and .268 the last three years. And
if he doesnÕt mash in the major leagues, he wonÕt play because he
contributes nothing beyond his bat. Originally an outfielder, he
put on weight and slowed down, prompting a move to first base in
1999. Stenson led all minor league first basemen with 34 errors
and was even worse defensively than that would suggest. He played
at first and in left field this year, and he probably will never
be more than adequate at either position.
The Future: Boston is overloaded with first
base/left field/DH types, so Stenson could be in for a third trip
to Triple-A to begin 2001. In a perfect world, he wouldnÕt be an
organizationÕs No. 1 prospect. But the Red Sox system is far from
perfect.