Det här brevet skickades in till Gary North. Det är svårt att ta det mentala steget till att inse att de institutioner som dagens samhälle bygger på är i fara.
Engineer Describes His Personal Survival Strategy
I have been in the software business for 22 years, working as a lead engineer and in various management positions. The systems that I have been associated with are very large defense systems and medium-sized safety critical systems (commercial avionics regulated by the FAA). I have a masters degree in Physics and have about a third of the courses finished for an MBA. . . .
A personal note: Why aren't people taking action?
I hope that more of your readers have started to take action than at last report. I have talked to probably 20 people whom I thought would be interested and whom might take action about the likely consequences of the Y2K bug. [I don't talk to people whom I have reason to believe will not listen or will listen, but will not take action.] I have talked to most of them now for at least six months. To date, not one has taken any action. . . .
However, I would say that my own integration time was probably five months. I had to mentally do the following:
(1) understand the source of the problem [that was easy] I've known about the technical basis of the problem since the early 1980's.
(2) try to really understand (in depth) the seriousness of the full impact of the problem [this was harder]
(3) try to find some observables verifying the nature and extent of the problem [This was much harder. In fact, it has not really been possible. There have been very few observables and all of these have been from second, third, or multiple-hand sources.]
(4) An alternate to item 3 is that I had to convince myself that I couldn't expect observables at this time so I had little alternative but to reason deductively based on reasonable assumptions and second, third ... hand information.
(5) I had to emotionally come to grip with the fact that my sources of security, like pension plan(s), 401K, IRA's investments, real estate, etc. were in jeopardy. [This was not easy, but it was far from the hardest task in this list.]
(6) I had to educate and convince my wife of the seriousness of the problem and likely outcomes. [I have not been successful in doing this for various reasons.]
(7) I had to plan a strategy for action acceptable to my wife.
(8) I had to formulate a tactical plan.
(9) I had to work (am working) the plan. [I work the plan, my wife does not.]
Right now I am working the plan (item 9). This is hard given that I work full time and have duties at the church and have to meet a certain amount of expectations at home. But I am doing it and I am making serious progress. My problem is that some activities are taking much longer than expected. Had I started a year earlier, I would be in a lot less jeopardy. I have been working the plan since the middle of June, '98. The main reason that I am making significant progress is that I am being single minded about the task - almost to a fault.
For many people it is too late to move unless they immediately place their homes on the market and discount them for quick sales. On the buying side of the equation - as you well know, finding a suitable property on which to weather the storm takes far longer than one would think.
The above steps are too daunting for most people. Also, when you consider that many people are "max-ed out", that is, they have no spare (a) time, (b) financial, (c) emotional, and /or (d) mental capacity from which to draw, it is not surprising that they will not (or cannot) respond to a long line of reasoning which has few if any (to them) observables.
It also does not help that disaster has been confidently forecasted before without occurrence. Some people have responded before to disaster calls and it took them years to live it down. Spouses, and acquaintances have not let them forget their "foolishness". These people are not eager to stick their necks out yet again. Of course, from a logical basis, the fact that somebody made an incorrect prediction in the past has no bearing on whether or not a current prediction will come to pass.
The percentage of people who will follow the process enumerated above or an equivalent one is very small. For purposes of illustration let's assume that it is one in a thousand people. But when both spouses must come to about the same conclusion and must act, the number of family units that will take meaningful action is (1/1,000)* (1/1,000) which is one in a million. Thus, without observables to drive the population's thinking, perhaps we could expect about 250 family units nation-wide to take meaningful action.
In my case, the way that I've overcome my wife's resistance to action is to hedge my actions so that we will come out ok if the Y2K bug causes a disaster or if it is a non-event. For instance,
(1) I am leaving some pension plans in place (most will be liquidated)
(2) I am building a vacation house in the mountains (a beautiful spot that my wife likes) where I can get ground water. I plan to do much of the work personally. This will save my capital resources and teach me trades in which I know something, but in which I am not proficient. (aside: I live in the Phoenix, AZ valley. Here we are among the most vulnerable in the nation.)
(3) I did a cash-out refinancing of my principle residence which raises my debt level to somewhat less than average. (My previous debt level was very low.)
(4) I am buying dried foods which we can eat even if Y2K is a non-problem.
(5) I am planning to change employers so that I can liquidate my 401K. I will still be employed and still have a good income. I may even have a considerable starting bonus.
(6) I am investigating setting up a trust to contain the vacation property.
(7) I am assembling a library of how-to books.
(8) I have purchased non-hybrid seeds.
(9) I am starting to consider gaining expertise in much less specialized lines of work. This is on my to do list. I have not given this adequate thought to date.
(10) I am setting up a plan in Microsoft Project and am using critical path analysis to have visibility into the schedule risks of my Y2K activities.
(12) I am estimating my costs and am tracking actuals in spreadsheets that I've set up.
All this is complicated by the fact that I have to do everything in such a way that it does not add substantial risk to my family's well-being should Y2K be a non-event. In short, I am hedging.
Yes, increasing debt adds risk, but I can get away with that because my debt burden is still lower as a percent of income than the average person. Terminating retirement funds is a risk, but it is mitigated by the fact that I have perhaps another 20 years to work (if I have to) prior to retirement and that the vacation home will have more equity in it than it will cost because of the (substantial) labor which I am putting into it.