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Nothing Happens Until the Fat Lady Sings

In the sports days of yesteryear, a player or fan who would talk too much about what might happen in the next game was reminded that "Nothing happens until the fat lady sings"; meaning that you should prepare "the best you can" but you won't know what your facing until the game starts.

As a systems test engineer for weather satellites I learned, years ago, that one doesn't even have a clue as to the nature of one's problems until one is well into the testing phase. Not a clue.

Before each of our tests, the individual modules tested out fine. But the system never tested out fine right away. Never. Until the testing, until the fat lady sang, I swear we were clueless as to what the real problems were.

You can test banking systems, you can test billing systems, but testing for power plants is different. Presently, the problem is approached by engineers saying that various components are being checked out and, from the positive status of these components, they are predicting success.

Add to this that a realistic systems test would include tele vendors and their part of the system as well. Not only is "full up" realistic testing being avoided but unrealistic testing is not yet even occurring!

Our problems go way beyond software and component remediation and testing.

For example, there is a trap, into which, we have fallen. We presently divide our progress board into the stages of: Inventory, Assessment, Remediation, and Testing. But the first two don't count for much. And Remediation results can be misleading becauses one won't know if he has remediated everything until the testing starts.

We are using a four stage paradigm that does not tell us if we are making progress. This paradigm could be blown to bits when the testing starts. This four stage paradigm even tricks into believing, like NERC does, that we are right on schedule. After all, many plants have completed their inventory and are well on their way to getting their assessment done. "Heck, looks like were half way there."

Ya, right on NERCers, we doing just fine.

Our four stage paradigm keeps us in delusion. Here is a cut at a more realistic paradigm that keeps us honest:

I. Inventory, assessment, and remediation. II. Sub-system testing. Fix what you find. Retest. III. Regression testing. (Once A, B, and C work then get A and B working together and then A and B and C working.) Fix what you find. Retest. IV. "Full up" testing without tele. Tele testing. Then both together. Fix what you find and then retest.

Now, using this new paradigm, lets seet where most of the power plants are. Yup, incomplete on phase I. Hmm. What do the boys at NERC do now?

The problem lies not in too little time The problem lies in our paradigm.

Asked by Steve Tomczak (stomczak@tampabay.rr.com) on November 03, 1998.

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