About y2k
This page will be updated continuously. Below are some quotes from people that I believe have insight into the y2k issue.
The alternative to addressing the year 2000 will be going out of business.
- Kevin Schick, The Gartner Group
We have never had to stare into the future knowing the precise date when the crisis would materialize. In a bizarre fashion, the inevitability of this confrontation seems to add to people’s denial of it. They know the date when the extent of the problem will surface, and choose not to worry about it until then.
- Petersen, Wheatley, Kellner-Rogers, The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?, 1998
It's a global problem. If we have our own house in order, that will still not matter if our neighboring countries have not theirs in order… It takes too long for people to really understand we really have a problem.
- Jan Timmer, Netherlands, Chair, Millennium Platform
The year 2000 date-change project presents organizations with one of the most interesting challenges since the dawn of the computer age. It is potentially the largest project the IS department has ever attempted. It has life-threatening implications for the business. It has an absolute, immovable deadline. It is a significant, unplanned, out-of-budget expense and it has no sponsor.
- James A. Jones, Director of Year 2000 Group, Information Management, Forum, in CIO Magazine, September 15, 1996
Mainframers are in serious denial these days about what will happen a couple of seconds after midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, when many thousands of mainframe programs handling critical business applications discover they don't know how to deal with dates that include the year 2000.
It's not that the world's COBOL programmers don't know how to fix the problem, or that current mainframe programming languages are incapable of handling dates in the next century. The problem is that mountain of old, fragile mainframe code still in use in business around the world - often running processes that lie right at the heart of a company's business.
These applications have been around so long, were developed in such tangles of spaghetti code, and have been modified in undocumented ways so many times that no one now employed by the company knows how to fix them. In some cases, no one now alive knows how to fix them.
- Jim Seymour, PC Magazine, Mar. 16, 1993
Year 2000 is the largest software maintenance project you will ever undertake. Don't underestimate the effort behind analysis, remediation, and testing. In all cases, you own the risk, and the only way to mitigate that risk is to start addressing the problem as realistically as possible. This problem is real, and it's not going away by itself.
- Bruce Hall, vice president of marketing for Trigent Software Inc.
There are 9,000 electric utility plants and 11,000 banks in [the U.S.]. Every one of them has a massive Y2K project with a fixed deadline. If you know anything about the software industry, you know that software projects are frequently late, over budget, and filled with bugs. So what are the odds that all 9,000 utilities and all 11,000 banks will be ready in time?
- Ed Yourdon, programmer and author of best-selling book Time Bomb 2000, 1998
This is not a prediction, it is a certainty - there will be serious disruption in the world's financial services industry… It's going to be ugly.
- The Sunday Times, London
At this point, you almost just have to cross your fingers.
- Congresswoman Elaine Alquist, in describing the trouble the California state government is having getting their computers compliant, reported by the San Jose Mercury News, August 1998.
People see TIME as an endless continuum.
Computers record time and dates as just another number, and as time progresses the time number gets bigger - so a FUTURE date is always LARGER than a PAST date.
Some programmers interfered with this nice progression by deleting the century digits from dates - they didn't think they would be needed!
Without the century digits the last day of this millennium will be 99-12-31, and after the stroke of midnight many computers will see January 1, 2000, as 00-01-01 - a SMALLER number than the day before - time will appear to have REVERSED.
OLD will seem YOUNG, a FEW moments will seem like an ENTIRE century, FUTURE events will have ALREADY occurred.
- Duncan G. Connall, Global Software, Inc.
This problem is so big that we will consider these bugs to be out of the scope of our normal software maintenance contracts. For those clients who insist that we should take responsibility, we'll exercise the cancellation clause and terminate the outsourcing contract.
We've found that a lot of our clients are in denial. We spoke to one CIO who just refused to deal with the problem, since he's going to retire next year.
- Benny Popek, Coopers & Lybrand LLP
I only wish we had started earlier… it is very hard to pinpoint the issues to the problem… the reluctance to even admit there is a problem is worrisome… there seem to be a general hope for silver bullet solutions… and a general 'we'll do it later'-attitude.
- Tony Valletta, V.P., SRA Int'l, formerly Information Officer, US Defense Dept., said a conference hosted by Ed Yardeni, August 19th 1998
I am personally concerned that the Y2K problem is receiving so little public attention. I am concerned that when it does become a matter of general public concern that it will be too late to bring pressure to bear on the timely correction of the many Y2K problems that exist. My greatest fear is that when it does become a matter of general public concern, it will bring with it a measure of panic that will be detrimental to effective and efficient remediation of the problems that will present themselves.
- Senator Bob Bennett (R), US, Chair, Senate Y2K Committe, June 12th, 1998
I am genuinely concerned about the prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change. If the power grid goes down, then it is all over. It doesn't matter if every computer in the country is Y2K compliant if you can't plug it into something.
- Senator Bob Bennett (R), US, Chair, Senate Y2K Committe, June 12th, 1998
We're still flying blind… we simply do not really know what we need to know… The more we dig the more we find we do not know where they [the industries] are, simply because they don't really know themselves… it is important to put aside legal issues, it is really something that has to be dealt with later.
- Senator Bob Bennett (R), US, Chair, Senate Y2K Committe, said on Year 2000 conference hosted by Ed Yardeni, August 19th, 1998
The fact is that with less than 18 months to go, I am very concerned that we are going to face serious economic dislocations from this problem. And I am very, very concerned that even as government and business leaders are finally acknowledging the seriousness of this problem, they are not thinking about the contingency plans that need to be put into place to minimize the harm from widespread failures. Quite honestly, I think we're no longer at the point of asking whether or not there will be any power disruptions but we are now forced to ask how severe the disruptions are going to be…It's been said before, but it bears repeating: Failure is simply not an option. If the critical industries and government agencies don't start to pick up the pace of dealing with this problem right now, Congress and the Clinton administration are to have to make some very tough decisions to deal with a true national emergency.
- Senator Chris Dodd, Vice Chairman, Senate Y2K Committee, Washington Post, June 12, 1998
The real problems with most Y2K problems is not so much the date expansion, or the slight modifications to the programs, but HOW to implement hundreds of programs and convert hundreds of files all at the same time. Today is the first day of the rest of your life.
- Dan Swenson, programmer
The y2k-problem is a very serious threat to the US economy.
- Ed Yardeni, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, New York
Failure to achieve compliance with the year 2000 will jeopardize our way of life on this planet for some time to come.
- Arthur Gross, Chief Information Officer, IRS, who later quit out of frustration
Take a look at the input screens of most accounting systems. These systems, typically legacy systems, the ones most likely to fail, control the true lifeblood of the organization... not INFORMATION! but something more mundane. Dollars.
Most of these systems accept ONLY 2-digit years. Why? Possibly because MOST data entry into these systems is date information and typing those 2 extra digits, time after time after time would be boring, tedious, inefficient and generally a pain in the arm.
Try entering 00 into one of these screens... you'll likely get... a data exception... or it won't accept the data as valid... or it will accept it... all of these will cause problems. The first two reject the data... that's good. The last is scary... will it process that 00 correctly?
Based on my personal programming experience, I'll predict that 90% of accounting systems will either reject the data or fail. To me, that's more than a reasonable estimate. Assume I'm off by 100% ... that only 45% of Accounting systems die. Watch what happens.
Okay... now it's 'whenever this happens' sometime between now and Day 1, Y2K. Most likely in 1999...
Your accounting system is dead in the water. What are the implications? Well... The most simple consequence is you can't cut or pay an invoice. No money will come into or leave your organization... (assume payroll is working... otherwise things only get worse... faster)
There are some organizations so literally computer dependant, they will NOT be able to get that cash flow moving EVEN if they hire 100 accounting clerks. What invoices do you pay? What do you bill? EVERYTHING is in the computer...The clock struck Jan 1, 2000 and the computer had a stroke.
Other companies will be able to generate a trickle of billing and payments by hiring manual labour... (How many clerks could you hire tomorrow? By next week?)
How FAST can you get an accounting system going? Can you fix the one you have? Or do you install a new one... Several of us, on this list have installed new accounting systems under pressure... how long did it take? 9 months? 6 Months?? 3 Months???
How fast can you install a new system when the entire company is a) screaming at you? and b) Blaming you? and c) the old system is dead and dead computers leave no audit trails.
How stable will your project team be ... when the company down the street is in the same predicament and offers huge 'incentives' to your staff to jump ship and help them? Will you lose your best and brightest or will you lose the bottom of your hope?
If you can't get your accounting system up and running in three months you're dead. Out of business, kaput ... Today's organizations CANNOT survive three months without cash flow. (and yes there WILL be a run on the banks as companies get desperate for cash advances NOW!)
Okay ... assume you have the very best and the very brightest ... your system is up and running in a week. (Loud laughter from the back of the room... not appreciated... nevertheless, the speaker continues unperturbed)
Remember that 45% failure rate? The VERY optimistic one? It means that 45% of the people you bill will not be able to pay. This is 100% out of your control ... 45% of your cash flow will be stopped even if your system is fine. Even if you have NO Y2K problems ... 45% of your clients do. So do 45% of your vendors ... can you order your raw materials if THEIR systems are dead? Oh, and remember that you've been pushing JIT inventory for years now ... your stock levels are deliberately low ... based on the assumption that the NEXT delivery is next week.
Can you build a car with 45% of the parts? Can you ship a product when 45% of the distribution channel is 'troubled' by the Y2K problem? Can you sell your product to me... If I have a Y2K problem? As Ted Nelson said in ComputerLib "Everything is InterTwingled"
Can you survive with 45% of your cash flow?
Will your computing staff stay around with salaries going through the roof? Especially for those who have PROVEN conclusively they can write Y2K compliant code!!!
How many companies need to fail...10% ? 25% ? 45% ? before a critical mass is achieved and it all comes tumbling down like a house of cards? We are all inter-dependant upon each other... we might NOT pass 'data' back and forth... BUT we DO pass invoices and other accounting and inventory information back and forth... managed by systems totally dependent upon digit deficient data.
- Peter de Jager (in 1995)