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10-04-96
This seemingly simple and innocent model says that the effect of an independent variable (x) on the dependent variable (y), can take place in a TIME FRAME different from its own.
Time Series models like EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING and ARIMA, are based on this paradigm. So is our MARKETING SIMULATION MODEL and TRIAL MAPPING.
A natural corollary to lead/lag effects is that they can also be CUMULATIVE. If this is the case, a seemingly trivial x effect can cause a dramatic change in y. An example would be 'The straw that broke the camel's back.'.
03-16-98
The way this might work out in presidential politics circa 3-15-98 (the IDES of MARCH) is that in the context of the historical truckloads of BIMBOS, the last and relatively TRIVIAL event (because of the way CUMULATIVE EFFECTS WORK) may be sufficient to break the back of the presidency. Then again, no one should underestimate the power of SLICKNESS, especially with the full (TOTALITARIAN?) power of the presidency behind it.
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