| 7/28/98 Closing Update |
| Stopped out of BOZ8. Nothing much going on besides that. Keeping watch on the BP, SI and HG . If B0Z8 hold below2506 in the next few day, I will reenter again. |
| Special Market Analysis |
| Expect SPU8 to be range bound with support at 1109 and then 1081. Resistance is around1167 and then 1196. Prolong price swing between the support line will probably indicate a shift of long term trend from bullish to bearish. This might happen if the earnings picture shows more impact of Asian situation. Personal view of this happening is 50/50 . More likely, even it did happen, it will not have a strong enough cooling effect to offset the tight labor market, higher housing price and continue consumer spending promoted by no increase in average daily products and the wealth effect of the rising market. This will likely push Mr. Greenspan to raise interest rate. When that happens, all hell will break loose and no idea what the market will do. Current estimate for the time span of this scenario is 3-9 month. |
| Close of | Trade date | 28-Jul-98 | Closing | |||||||||||||
| COMMODITY | TRADE DATE | SIZE | PRICE | LAST | CHANGE | Dail OTE | OTE | STOPS | ||||||||
| USU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| TYU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| FVU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| EDU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| ADU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| CDU8 | 8-Jul | -3 | 6804 | 6662 | 10 | $ (300.00) | $ 4,260.00 | 6707 | ||||||||
| BPU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| DMU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| SFU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| JYU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| SPU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| GCQ8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| SIU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| HGU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| CLV8 | 21-Jul | -2 | 1430 | 1452 | 5 | $ (100.00) | $ (440.00) | 1454 | ||||||||
| HOV8 | 21-Jul | -2 | 3956 | 3887 | -23 | $ 193.20 | $ 579.60 | 3952 | ||||||||
| HUV8 | 21-Jul | -2 | 4397 | 4311 | -31 | $ 260.40 | $ 722.40 | 4405 | ||||||||
| NGV8 | 27-Jul | -1 | 2070 | 1985 | -23 | $ 230.00 | $ 850.00 | 2073 | ||||||||
| SBV8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| KCU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| COU8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| SX8 | 21-Jul | -1 | 581 | 567 2/8 | 1 6/8 | $ (87.50) | $ 687.50 | 573 5/8 | ||||||||
| CZ8 | 21-Jul | -2 | 235 4/8 | 226 4/8 | -1 6/8 | $ 175.00 | $ 900.00 | 234 5/8 | ||||||||
| WZ8 | 30-Jun | -2 | 303 2/8 | 271 2/8 | -4 2/8 | $ 425.00 | $ 3,200.00 | 286 2/8 | ||||||||
| SMZ8 | $ - | $ - | N/A | |||||||||||||
| BOZ8 | 16-Jul | -3 | 2520 | 2468 | 25 | $ (450.00) | $ 936.00 | 2464 | ||||||||
| Total | $ 346.10 | $ 11,695.50 |
| MTD Realized P&L | ||||||||||||||
| COMM | EXIT DATE | SIZE | EXIT PRICE | ENTER-DATE | ENTRY SIZE | EXTRY-PRICE | P&L | |||||||
| USU8 | 13-Jul | -2 | 123 10/32 | 30-Jun | 2 | 123 19/32 | $ (562.50) | |||||||
| DMU8 | 13-Jul | 2 | 5559 | 30-Jun | -2 | 5554 | ($125.00) | |||||||
| SFU8 | 13-Jul | 2 | 6595 | 30-Jun | -2 | 6628 | $ 825.00 | |||||||
| HUG8 | 13-Jul | 2 | 7350 | 1-Jul | -2 | 7330 | ($100.00) | |||||||
| TYU8 | 14-Jul | -2 | 113 24/32 | 30-Jun | 2 | 113 27/32 | ($187.50) | |||||||
| HOQ8 | 14-Jul | 2 | 3850 | 8-Jul | -2 | 3782 | ($571.20) | |||||||
| SX8 | 17-Jul | 2 | 593 | 15-Jul | -2 | 581 | ($1,200.00) | |||||||
| CZ8 | 17-Jul | 2 | 242 | 15-Jul | -2 | 235 | ($700.00) | |||||||
| HOV8 | 20-Jul | 3 | 3898 | 16-Jul | -3 | 4109 | $2,658.60 | |||||||
| HUV8 | 20-Jul | 4 | 4335 | 16-Jul | -4 | 4625 | $4,872.00 | |||||||
| SPU8 | 21-Jul | -1 | 117900 | 30-Jun | 1 | 114300 | $9,000.00 | |||||||
| KCU8 | 22-Jul | 1 | 11010 | 30-Jun | -1 | 11020 | $37.50 | |||||||
| MTD Change in OTE | $ 11,695.50 | |||||
| MTD Realized P&L | $ 13,946.90 | |||||
| MTD Total P&L | $25,642.40 |
| The position size listed in the Daily P&L Tracker are designed for a hypothetical portfolio of $100,000.00. When the position is established, the average trade seeks to risk no more than 2% of the total equity on a daily basis based on market volatility. The exceptions here are in the cases of S&P 500 and Coffee. Because of the value of the actual contract as well as the volitility we have seen in recent days, a 1 contract position is being used and the actual capital at risk is being list below. Because market volatility changes, the capital at risk for each market is list here also. Please remember these number are not absolute. It is merely an estimate for each market's daily lose if you are forced to cut the position during that day. Also, please do not confuse this as margins for the position. Margins are set by the exchanges and you FCM. They are two completely different things. This report is updated weekly, usually on Monday morning. | ||||||
| COMMODITY | RISK CAPITAL | COMMODITY | RISK CAPITAL | |||
| USDU8 | N/A | CLV8 | $ 1,560.00 | |||
| TYDU8 | N/A | HOV8 | $ 1,461.60 | |||
| FVU8 | N/A | HUV8 | $ 1,612.80 | |||
| EDU8 | N/A | NGV8 | $ 1,560.00 | |||
| ADU8 | N/A | SBV8 | N/A | |||
| CDU8 | $ 1,380.00 | KCU8 | N/A | |||
| BPU8 | N/A | COU8 | N/A | |||
| DMU8 | N/A | |||||
| SFU8 | N/A | SX8 | $ 1,440.00 | |||
| JYU8 | N/A | CZ8 | $ 855.00 | |||
| WZ8 | $ 920.00 | |||||
| SPU8 | N/A | |||||
| SMZ8 | N/A | |||||
| GCQ8 | N/A | BOZ8 | $ 1,440.00 | |||
| SIU8 | N/A | |||||
| HGU8 | N/A | |||||
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