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  • Investment Views  (July 24th 2000)

    Markets in General

    Friday was options expiration day.  Therefore we're not sure, if
    the market will correct seriously next week.  But the technicals of the
    markets have improved.  So we do not expect a long and nasty
    correction.  The Dow should not fall below 10200 again and the Nasdaq
    composite index should hold above the 4000 level.  The earnings have
    not been bad at all.  We remain cautiously optimistic.  But the markets will
    remain very cautious until after the August Fed meeting.

    The European markets have generally followed the US markets' ups and downs
    last  week.  But the upward climb is much more strenguous here than in the
    US.  The volume is still extremely low.  Europe remains in summer doldrums. 
    The tech stocks in Europe are still in correction.  We do not see the stocks
    breaking out of their sidewards movements anytime soon.

    The Swiss market is becoming tired and doesn't seem to be able to get above
    the 8000 level.  But with Roche so weak, we wouldn't bet that the market has
    much downside momentum either.  But the market cannot remain in such a
    narrow range forever.  It has to breakout one way or the other. 


    Go to Index



    Stocks


    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     


    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close
    Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    7989.806968

    SMI7903.707961.507900.207900.40
    E 905053.5 (2000)+48.41%AT&S79.40
    89       
    88.2088.60
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+180.90%Bachem3795379036263750
    Gbp17.56
    3.13
    6.50

    BaltimoreTech
    6.95
    7.20
    6.45
    6.50


    260 (2000)+5.38%Biodata274
    274
    270273
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+151.02%C&W12.3013.5212.9813.25
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+35.21%Cap Gemini189.30214.50
    198210
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+252.5%Ericsson35.2535.6032.5033.70
    E19066.40129 (2000)-18.2%Epcos108.50120.30116.30117.50
    E.199E.3228 (1999)+220.71%Evotec89.80
    94.5089.10
    90
    E 9770.25
    37.8(1998)+133.33%LVMH88.20
    91.60
    89.2591
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+200%New Ventur180178173174
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+642.66%Nokia55.70
    59.2556.8057.81
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-.06%Roche GS16890159401573515750
    SFr.456.33
    46.66(1997)+442.99%SAP244.50313
    297300
    E 965417.7(1999)+180.22%Sonera49.60
    52.50
    50
    50.40
    SFr.850660460(1998)+80.65%Syn-Stratec831
    863
    835
    850
    SFr1050661703(2000)+39.4%Think Tools 980
    935922
    931
    E 73.301614.9(1999)+322.82%Zeltia63
    59.50
    59.50
    59.50
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. 

    Handset sales has been dispointing for the first half of this year.  The management admitted that they
    will not be able
    to expand their market share, because of components shortage and the product lineup. 
    On the other hand the
    infra-structure side of the business has been excellent and they have expanded their market share.  So the shares have moved downward on Friday, but not punishingly so.

    This week we decided to add  Baltimore Technologies to our recommended list.  Baltimore
    technonologies is in the software decoding business.  We find that the market correction has
    been overdone.  We're still optimistic for this part of the internet software business.


    Go to Index



    Currencies and Bonds


    The dollar recovered along with the US stock markets.  It has remained quite
    strong last week.  We expect the dollar to challenge the Euro again next week.
    Again we expect the Euro support level around .90 to hold.

    Go to Index


    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why is the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.


     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!