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    • Investment Views  (September 25th 2000)

    Markets in General
    The market is correcting in a serious way.  The Nasdaq is correcting in a
    big way.  But the 3800 level support seems to have held.  To be sure
    that this is the case, we'll have to see whether the market will challange
    the 3800 again on Monday.  The Dow has been a bit stronger.  The
    10600 level support seems to be stronger.  We close the week around
    10800.  Both markets are extremely oversold.  We expect a bit of bounce
    next week.  But we are still in the earnings warning period.  We expect
    hefty selloffs in the stocks of those companies that issue such warnings.

    Both CAC and the Dax were extremely weak last week.  The Dax even
    hit 6500 on Friday before recovering a bit.  Both markets are becoming
    extremely oversold.  We expect a bit of recovery next week.

    The SMI tested the 7800 level and bounced right back.  We expect
    the market to move up a bit further.  Until the market manages to
    close above 8200 again, we are still in a correction mode.


    Stocks              

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     

    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close    		Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    8080
    		6968

    		SMI8014.40
    		7983.70
    		7812.50
    		7975.50
    E 48.3012.40
    		26.75 (2000)+36.82%AT&S41.10
    		 37.30    
    		36.20
    		36.60
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+137.97%Bachem3369322532003215
    Gbp17.56
    		3.13
    		6.50(2000)
                		+5.6%
                 		BaltimoreTech
    		7.42
                		6.87
                		6.10
                		6.87
           
      E         420
    		           207
    		260 (2000)+13.84%Biodata333
    		303
    		294
    		296
    Gbp54.73
    		 16
    		 30
    		Bookham Tech
    		 34.95
    		 34.95
    		 28.60
    		 31.65
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+87.75%C&W119.39
    		8.99
    		9.20
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+43.21%Cap Gemini211.10
    		206
    		196
    		200.50
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+199.20%Ericsson3330.2527.65
    		29.95
    E.102.50E.1614 (1999)+297.14%   Evotec56
    		55.80
    		51.20
    		55.60
    E 9770.25
    		37.8(1998)+123.67%LVMH86.05
    		84.80
    		81.20
    		84.55
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+136.66%New Ventur160145.50138142
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+532.93%Nokia51.60
    		48.10
    		43.70
    		47.47
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-7.50%Roche GS1505015715
    		1535015625
    SFr.456.33           218
    		46.66(1997)+556.87%SAP328
    		307
    		280
    		306.50
    E 9733.10
    		17.7(1999)+60.79%Sonera35.79
    		29.50
    		26.50
    		28.46
    SFr.850660460(1998)+137.82%Syn-Stratec1141
    		1129
    		1010
    		1094
    SFr1050661703(2000)+10.24%Think Tools 870
    		784
    		750
    		775
    E 18.3254
    		3.725(1999)+463.75%Zeltia22.50
    		22.50
    		20.40
    		21
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of  our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. 

    We decide to put Bookham into our recommended list, because it has developed some very
    interesting fiber optics products.  Although we normally dislike recommending companies
    that are not yet profitable.  But Bookham is such an outstanding company in a very
    promising field, we decide to venture into the stocks of this company.

    Go to Index



    Currencies and Bonds
    There was a concerted intervention in favor of the Euro on Friday.  The Euro recovered to .90
    at one point, but couldn't hold the level.  We expect more intervention next week until the
    Euro is safely back above the 90 cents again.

    Go to Index

    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!