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  • Last Week's Views
    •   
    Investment Views  (July 13th 1998) 
     
    Instead of writing my clients individually I thought I might as well
    do a weekly summary of my views on the markets, the currencies,
    the economy, the world, and life in general.

     


    Markets in General 

    I'm really happy that the summer rally took place during our summer vacation
    in Paris last week.  I don't see any fundamental changes in the world after
    getting back.  The markets have risen in a hurry.  So it is not surprising that
    the all pull back towards the end of the week.  But with the low interest
    rates and the easy money environment, we will not be surprised that
    the bull markets in Europe will have some more time to run.
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    Stocks 

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless
    Baan and Bachem.*   Raisio Group's stocks spit 1:10.  Baan is still having problems.
     
     
    High of the Year Low of the Year Stock Last Week's 
    Close    		 Daily high Daily low This Week's+ Close
    HFl.  108.70 62.60 Baan 77.80 82.50 79.90 81.60
    SFr. 1495 1351 Bachem 2000 1980 1915 1970
    Gbp  8.13 4.67 C&W 7.90 8 7.76 7.90
    SFr.  44 25 Ericsson 45.30 47.50 46.25 47.50
    FIM  378 182 Nokia 421 430 421 424
    FIM  1080 640 Raisio Group 97.50 97.5 95.50 96.50
    SFr.  785 419 SAP 890 845 790 837
    SFr.  440 385 Straumann 407 394 383 385
     

    SAP warned last week that the Asian crisis will have an effect in slowing their earnings
    growth.  The numbers will come out on the 20th of July.   I have the feeling that SAP
    will sell off until that date.  Then the numbers might not be as bad as some of the
    analysts feared and the price of the stock might rally again.  So it is probably
    a good time to buy into SAP during the next week.  After all SAP is as good
    as it gets as far as European growth companies are concerned.  And quality has
    its price.
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     Currencies 
    The dollar rallies during our absence last week.  Are we going to have a final blow-off
    in the dollar level?  It might well be.  Fundamentally it is very positive that the federal
    government is finally running a budget surplus.  On the other hand the trade balance of
    the US is getting worse and worse.  So we fear the worst for the dollar as soon as Asia
    stablizes.  We still believe that the Japanese government will move to save the
    Japanese financial systems after the elections on Sunday.  So the Asian markets should
    stablize towards the end of the fall. And by the end of year we might see a weaker
    dollar.

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     Sportsview 

    France's football team is on a roll.  The enthusiasum of the home public is carrying
    them to unimaginable heights.  Despite my feelings for Brasilien, I shall not be too
    sorry, if France succeeded in defeating them tonight.

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    *The stock prices are provided for informational puruposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!
     

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