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  • Last Week's Views
    •   
    Investment Views  (July 27th 1998) 
     
    Instead of writing my clients individually I thought I might as well
    do a weekly summary of my views on the markets, the currencies,
    the economy, the world, and life in general.

     
    Markets in General 


    The markets made new highs on Monday.  When the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan
    Greenspan started his testimony, the markets were still defiantly bullish.  But the bullish
    mood turned sour as the day went on.  That downturn went on Wednesday and turned
    down right ugly on Thursday, because people were nervous about the Japanese
    LDP party chairman election.  With the election of Obuchi out of the way the world
    markets recovered somewhat.  But none of the foreign markets are very enthusiastic
    about Obuchi who seems quite innocuous and not quite ready to shake up the Japanese
    burocrats.
    The German and French markets again have exhibited great strength during this
    latest correction. The German market seems to have very solid support around
    6000 area.  Unless we break 6000 on the Dax, we will probably see a resumption
    of the upward movement.
    The Swiss market is much more susceptible to the correction.  From the intraday
    high of 8489 made on Tuesday by the SMI, the market closed this week at 8205.
    The correction is a bit milder than on the Dow, but it tracked the movements of
    the Dow very closely. Thus we do not see the Swiss market recovering until the
    US markets recovered. The US market has become oversold.  But we are not sure
    whether we have seen the lows yet.  We expect the correction to last into the next
    week.  We see good support around the 8800-8900 area on the Dow.  The next
    support should be around 8680's.

    Go to Index
     


    Stocks 

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless
    Baan and Bachem.*   Raisio Group's stocks spit 1:10.
     
     
    High of the Year Low of the Year Stock Last Week's 
    Close    		 Daily high Daily low This Week'sClose
    HFl.  108.70 62.60 Baan 85.90 79.50 78.20 79.50
    SFr. 1495 1351 Bachem 1880 1930 1860 1920
    Gbp  8.13 4.67 C&W 8.40 8.14 7.90 8.02
    SFr.  44 25 Ericsson 48.10 48.50 46.75 48.50
    FIM  378 182 Nokia 447.50 505 455 498
    FIM  1080 640 Raisio Group 97.50 88 83 86.50
    SFr.  785 419 SAP 895 968 920 942
    SFr.  440 385 Straumann 383 380 375 379
     

    SAP reported good earnings for the first half.  Its stock prices went down on the
    day the earnings report came in.  The next day the stock took off again towards
    SFr. 1000.--  SAP's upward movements were stopped short by the general
    correction.  But it closes the week higher than last week.

    Nokia reported fantastic numbers for the quarter on Friday.  We remain optimistic
    about the stock.
    Go to Index
     


     Currencies 

    The dollar is exhibiting some weakness this week.  Even Alan Greenspan's remarks
    that it is still possible that the Fed has to raise the interest rates could not bolster
    the dollar more than a day.  The dollar is now below SFr. 1.50.  Until it falls
    below DM1.68, we do not see the downtrend signalled by the Swiss Francs
    being confirmed.

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    *The stock prices are provided for informational puruposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!
     

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