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  • Investment Views  (July 31st 2000)

    Markets in General

    We had expected a correction, but we were not sure whether the correction
    will be a serious one.  Well, the correction on the Nasdaq was certainly
    a serious one.  The 4000 level support did not hold.  The market became
    oversold again.  But because the Fed will meet again mid-August and
    because the economic data on GDP for the second quarter was
    stronger than expected, we expect the market to remain jittery until
    maybe the week before the Fed meeting.  The Dow remained stronger
    than the Nasdaq.  So the support level 10200 is still important.  On the
    Nasdaq we're quite close to the support level 3600.  If that support level
    doesn't hold, we might even see 3200 again.

    The European markets have generally followed the US markets' ups and downs
    last  week.  But the upward climb is much more strenguous here than in the
    US.  The volume is still extremely low.  Europe remains in summer doldrums. 
    The tech stocks in Europe are still in correction.  We do not see the stocks
    breaking out of their sidewards movements anytime soon.

    The SMI broke above the 8000 level last week but closed the week below
    that level.  The volume is still extremely thin.  We still feel that the SMI is
    overbought and getting tired.  We should see some pullback next week, if
    Wall Street continues to be so weak.  The next support level is 7800. 
     


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    Stocks


    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     

    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close
    Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    8080
    6968

    SMI7900.408026.20
    7994.607997.80
    E 95.5024.80
    53.5 (2000)+63.55%AT&S88.60
    91.50       
    86.5087.50
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+172.02%Bachem3750367536153675
    Gbp17.56
    3.13
    6.50
    -6%
            
    BaltimoreTech
    6.50
    6.31
           
    5.92
           
    6.11
      E         420
              207
    260 (2000)+4.61%Biodata273
    277
    270272
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+138.77%C&W13.2512.1011.6311.70
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+44.28%Cap Gemini210
    206
    198.10202
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+217.50%Ericsson35.7032.253131.75
    E.205E.3228 (1999)+223.93%   Evotec90
    9190.30
    90.70
    E 9770.25
    37.8(1998)+144.31%LVMH91
    94.80
    91.9
    92.35
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+198.75%New Ventur174183175179.25
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+526%Nokia57.81
    48.20
    45.90
    46.95
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-6.6%Roche GS15750158801567515770
    SFr.456.33           218
    46.66(1997)+515.08%SAP300
    296.50
    283.50287
    E 9739.70
    17.7(1999)+142.37%Sonera50.40
    44.89
    42.80
    42.90
    SFr.850660460(1998)+91.08%Syn-Stratec850
    879
    845
    879
    SFr1050661703(2000)+27.88%Think Tools 931
    910885
    899
    E 73.301614.9(1999)+289.26%Zeltia59.5
    58
    56.40
    58
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. 

    Nokia announced wonderful numbers for the second quarter: sales increased more than 50%
    and profits more than 60%, but the stock
    lost more than 20% in one day, because the company
    warned that the third quarter numbers will not be as good as the second, because

    of a delay in new product introduction.  We think that this is a buying opportunity. 
    Nokia remains the best handset company with
    the highest margin in the industry.

    This week we decided to take Epcos off of our recommended list, because its stock fell
    below the important support level :100 Euros.
    Our guideline is cut loss, if a stock lost more than
    15-20% of its value.  Epcos lost more than 20% since our recommendation. 




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    Currencies and Bonds


    The dollar recovered along with the US stock markets.  It has remained quite
    strong last week.  We expect the dollar to challenge the Euro again next week.
    Again we expect the Euro support level around .90 to hold.

    Go to Index


    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why is the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.


     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!