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  • Investment Views  (August 28th 2000)

    Markets in General

    The markets were generally friendly.  The Dow is over 11000 again and
    the Nasdaq over 4000: all very bullish signs.    As we have written several
    weeks ago, we expect the Dow to re-test its old high around 11600.
    But we're uncertain whether the Nasdaq will reach its old highs above
    5000 made in March.  The Fed has left the interest rates unchanged, but
    sounded hawkish in their comments.  Greenspan probably still wants
    the market participants to show restraint. 

    The European markets are following the US.  The Dax and CAC
    recovered a bit last week.  But the recovery is still tentative.  And
    it's a two steps forwards and one step backwards kind of movement.
    The high tech stocks on the Neuer Markt are still in the basement.
    There are talks again that the ECB might raise the interest rates again.
    Therefore we remain cautiously optimistic.

    The SMI  almost hit 8400 last week before retreating a bit.  We have
    to wait and see, if the 8260 level holds.  The market is very much over-
    bought.  We think it will be healthy, if the market were to correct a bit
    here.


    Go to Index



    Stocks              


    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     

    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close
    Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    8080
    6968

    SMI8251.90
    8373.80
    8294.50
    8311.70
    E 48.3012.40
    26.75 (2000)+61.12%AT&S45.50
    44.30      
    43
    43.10
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+164.98%Bachem3245358034203580
    Gbp17.56
    3.13
    6.50
    +8.45%
            
    BaltimoreTech
    6.55
    7.17
           
    6.55
           
    7.05
           
      E         420
              207
    260 (2000)+28%Biodata309
    335
    329
    333
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+135.3%C&W11.2112.1211.4511.53
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+53.9%Cap Gemini193.30
    216
    208.20
    215.50
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+247.50%Ericsson34.5535.2534.4034.75
    E.102.50E.1614 (1999)+220%   Evotec42.20
    46
    44
    44.80
    E 9770.25
    37.8(1998)+141.93%LVMH92.60
    91.90
    88.50
    91.45
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+174.15%New Ventur161165160164.50
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+517.3%Nokia45.80
    47.19
    45.90
    46.30
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-6.15%Roche GS1570516040
    1586015860
    SFr.456.33           218
    46.66(1997)+621.17%SAP338
    340
    333.50
    336.50
    E 9733.10
    17.7(1999)+102.75%Sonera41.15
    37.73
    35.80
    35.89
    SFr.850660460(1998)+148.48%Syn-Stratec1065
    1166
    1120
    1143
    SFr1050661703(2000)+20.9%Think Tools 899
    850
    840
    850
    E 73.301614.9(1999)+340.9%Zeltia66
    65.70
    64.50
    65.70
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of  our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. 

    Sonera plunged after winning a 3G licence in Germany.  The cost will be astronomic.
    Analysts and investors are questioning Sonera's financail soundness.  We have our
    doubts too.  But we are convinced that the wireless telephony will see a drastic
    concentration process so that only a few big players will be left.  Sonera is a
    typical takeover candidate.  Therefore we would still hold on to Sonera.

       Go to Index



    Currencies and Bonds


    Last week the dollar did not manage to break through the .90 level to the Euro.
    We expect the Euro to recover a bit.  .90 is still the level to watch.

    Swiss Franc has weakened against the dollar to 1.72.  If the dollar can climb above
    the 1.74 level, we feel that the Swiss Franc might even fall to the 1.80 level.  The
    next level to watch is SFr. 1.76.
    However, as long as the Euro hovers above the .90 level, we do not expect
    a plunge in Swiss Francs.

    Go to Index


    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.


     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!