Market in General
Stocks
Currencies
Last Week's Views
Investment Views (August 28th 2000)
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Markets in General
The markets were generally friendly. The Dow is over 11000 again and
the Nasdaq over 4000: all very bullish signs. As we have written several
weeks ago, we expect the Dow to re-test its old high around 11600.
But we're uncertain whether the Nasdaq will reach its old highs above
5000 made in March. The Fed has left the interest rates unchanged, but
sounded hawkish in their comments. Greenspan probably still wants
the market participants to show restraint.
The European markets are following the US. The Dax and CAC
recovered a bit last week. But the recovery is still tentative. And
it's a two steps forwards and one step backwards kind of movement.
The high tech stocks on the Neuer Markt are still in the basement.
There are talks again that the ECB might raise the interest rates again.
Therefore we remain cautiously optimistic.
The SMI almost hit 8400 last week before retreating a bit. We have
to wait and see, if the 8260 level holds. The market is very much over-
bought. We think it will be healthy, if the market were to correct a bit
here.
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Stocks
Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson,
Cable and Wireless.
|
High of the Year | Low of the Year | Price and year of recommend. | Performance since recommend. | Stock | Last Week's
Close | Daily high | Daily low | This Week's Close | 8080
| 6968 |
|
| SMI | 8251.90
| 8373.80
| 8294.50
| 8311.70
| E 48.30 | 12.40
| 26.75 (2000) | +61.12% | AT&S | 45.50
| 44.30
| 43
| 43.10
| SFr. 4000 | 2475 | 1351(1998) | +164.98% | Bachem | 3245 | 3580 | 3420 | 3580 |
Gbp17.56
| 3.13
| 6.50
| +8.45% | BaltimoreTech
| 6.55
| 7.17 | 6.55 | 7.05 | E 420
| 207
| 260 (2000) | +28% | Biodata | 309
| 335
| 329
| 333
| Gbp 15.77 | 8.28 | 4.9(1998) | +135.3% | C&W | 11.21 | 12.12 | 11.45 | 11.53 | E 368.90 | 210.10 | 140(1998) | +53.9% | Cap Gemini | 193.30
| 216
| 208.20
| 215.50
| SFr.44.25 | 21.5 | 10(1998) | +247.50% | Ericsson | 34.55 | 35.25 | 34.40 | 34.75 | E.102.50 | E.16 | 14 (1999) | +220% | Evotec | 42.20
| 46
| 44
| 44.80
| E 97 | 70.25
| 37.8(1998) | +141.93% | LVMH | 92.60
| 91.90
| 88.50
| 91.45
| Sfr.275 | 133 | 60(1999) | +174.15% | New Ventur | 161 | 165 | 160 | 164.50 | E.64.90 | 37.50 | 7.50(1997) | +517.3% | Nokia | 45.80
| 47.19
| 45.90
| 46.30
| SFR.19400 | 17600 | SFr.16900** (2000) | -6.15% | Roche GS | 15705 | 16040
| 15860 | 15860 | SFr.456.33 | 218
| 46.66(1997) | +621.17% | SAP | 338
| 340
| 333.50
| 336.50
| E 97 | 33.10
| 17.7(1999) | +102.75% | Sonera | 41.15
| 37.73
| 35.80
| 35.89
| SFr.850 | 660 | 460(1998) | +148.48% | Syn-Stratec | 1065
| 1166
| 1120
| 1143
| SFr1050 | 661 | 703(2000) | +20.9% | Think Tools | 899
| 850
| 840
| 850
| E 73.30 | 16 | 14.9(1999) | +340.9% | Zeltia | 66
| 65.70
| 64.50
| 65.70
|
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*We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation,
because we have recommended the different stocks
to buy at different times. Since we're convinced
that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff.
Sonera plunged after winning a 3G licence in Germany. The cost will be astronomic.
Analysts and investors are questioning Sonera's financail soundness. We have our
doubts too. But we are convinced that the wireless telephony will see a drastic
concentration process so that only a few big players will be left. Sonera is a
typical takeover candidate. Therefore we would still hold on to Sonera.
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Currencies and Bonds
Last week the dollar did not manage to break through the .90 level to the Euro.
We expect the Euro to recover a bit. .90 is still the level to watch.
Swiss Franc has weakened against the dollar to 1.72. If the dollar can climb above
the 1.74 level, we feel that the Swiss Franc might even fall to the 1.80 level. The
next level to watch is SFr. 1.76.
However, as long as the Euro hovers above the .90 level, we do not expect
a plunge in Swiss Francs.
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Future Trends
Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
telephones. But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
next couple of years. So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere? The problem seems to
be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
from the telecom companies. People seem to think that the sky-high
cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs. Therefore
the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated. On the
other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
possible, because the licence fees are so high. They will need the
income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
to the new standards. The question will be how much and how soon and not
if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.
*The stock prices are provided
for informational purposes only and not intended for trading
purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are:
opinions! |