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  • Last Week's Views
    • Investment Views  (October 2nd 2000)

    Markets in General
    September is a cruel month.  The markets seem to go just in one direction:
    down.  Whatever profits one has, disappears  by the end of the month.
    But usually the market has reached a first and meaningful low by the end
    of the month.  The crash in 1987 was an exception.  Usually there is a short
    rebound in October, until the markets re-test the September low again.
    Slowly, in November we see a recovery.  Such is the usual scenerio for
    the end of year.  Of course we can't be 100% sure that this will happen.
    Thus we still expect a short bounce, before the market re-test the
    September lows.

    Both CAC and the Dax recovered a bit last week.  But we don't expect these
    two markets to recover substantially until Wall Street does.  But Wall Street
    began correcting one or two weeks later.  Therefore we do not expect 
    a substantial recovery in the CAC and DAX either.

    As we had foreseen it, there was a bounce in the SMI, before it went right
    down again.  Last Friday we saw the market declining by more than 2,8%.
    That was probably overdone.  We expect a recovery next week.

    Stocks              

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     

    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close    		Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    8080
    		6968

    		SMI8014.40
    		7983.70
    		7812.50
    		7975.50
    E 48.3012.40
    		26.75 (2000)+36.82%AT&S41.10
    		 37.30    
    		36.20
    		36.60
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+137.97%Bachem3369322532003215
    Gbp17.56
    		3.13
    		6.50(2000)
                		+5.6%
                 		BaltimoreTech
    		7.42
                		6.87
                		6.10
                		6.87
           
      E         420
    		           207
    		260 (2000)+13.84%Biodata333
    		303
    		294
    		296
    Gbp54.73
    		16
    		30
    		Bookham Tech
    		34.95
    		34.95
    		28.60
    		31.65
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+87.75%C&W119.39
    		8.99
    		9.20
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+43.21%Cap Gemini211.10
    		206
    		196
    		200.50
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+199.20%Ericsson3330.2527.65
    		29.95
    E.102.50E.1614 (1999)+297.14%   Evotec56
    		55.80
    		51.20
    		55.60
    E 9770.25
    		37.8(1998)+123.67%LVMH86.05
    		84.80
    		81.20
    		84.55
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+136.66%New Ventur160145.50138142
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+532.93%Nokia51.60
    		48.10
    		43.70
    		47.47
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-7.50%Roche GS1505015715
    		1535015625
    SFr.456.33           218
    		46.66(1997)+556.87%SAP328
    		307
    		280
    		306.50
    E 9733.10
    		17.7(1999)+60.79%Sonera35.79
    		29.50
    		26.50
    		28.46
    SFr.850660460(1998)+137.82%Syn-Stratec1141
    		1129
    		1010
    		1094
    SFr1050661703(2000)+10.24%Think Tools 870
    		784
    		750
    		775
    E 18.3254
    		3.725(1999)+463.75%Zeltia22.50
    		22.50
    		20.40
    		21
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of  our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. *** no price updates this week!

    We decide to put Bookham into our recommended list, because it has developed some very
    interesting fiber optics products.  Although we normally dislike recommending companies
    that are not yet profitable.  But Bookham is such an outstanding company in a very
    promising field, we decide to venture into the stocks of this company.

    Go to Index



    Currencies and Bonds
    The Danes voted not to adopt the Euro.  But the currency markets barely noticed.
    The Euro is hovering around the .88-.89 cents level.  We expect the market
    to break out of this very narrow range, perhaps to re-test the resolve of the
    central banks.  If they intervene again, then we expect the Euro to recover above
    .90 level.

    Go to Index

    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!