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  • Last Week's Views
    • Investment Views  (October 9th 2000)

    We're on vacation for two weeks.  No sense sitting around to watch the markets
    going down.  We advice all investors to concentrate on the more enjoyable aspects
    of life and not watch the sinking ship!

    Markets in General
    The bounce expected kept eluding us.  The bounces are such brief one day
    affair.  The markets do not exhibit any strength yet.  Our guess is we should
    re-test the old lows of last correction again:  approximately 10200 on the Dow
    and 3200 on the Nasdaq.  The Nasdaq is going down so rapidly that we fear
    that the last low might be exceeded.  We still expect a slow recovery by November.
    But we doubt the Nasdaq will make new highs this year.  Extreme over-valuations
    usually take years to correct.  So we don't see the Nasdaq making new highs anytime
    soon. 

    The European markets bounced back briefly but the markets are still too weak
    for a bounce in face of a weak Wall Street.  Until the Wall Street recovers, we
    do not expect the European markets to recover decidedly.

    Stocks              

    Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.
     
     

    High of the YearLow of the YearPrice and year of recommend. Performance since recommend.StockLast Week's
    Close    		Daily highDaily lowThis Week's Close
    8080
    		6968

    		SMI8014.40
    		7983.70
    		7812.50
    		7975.50
    E 48.3012.40
    		26.75 (2000)+36.82%AT&S41.10
    		 37.30    
    		36.20
    		36.60
    SFr. 400024751351(1998)+137.97%Bachem3369322532003215
    Gbp17.56
    		3.13
    		6.50(2000)
                		+5.6%
                 		BaltimoreTech
    		7.42
                		6.87
                		6.10
                		6.87
           
      E         420
    		           207
    		260 (2000)+13.84%Biodata333
    		303
    		294
    		296
    Gbp54.73
    		16
    		30
    		Bookham Tech
    		34.95
    		34.95
    		28.60
    		31.65
    Gbp 15.778.284.9(1998)+87.75%C&W119.39
    		8.99
    		9.20
    E 368.90210.10140(1998)+43.21%Cap Gemini211.10
    		206
    		196
    		200.50
    SFr.44.2521.510(1998)+199.20%Ericsson3330.2527.65
    		29.95
    E.102.50E.1614 (1999)+297.14%   Evotec56
    		55.80
    		51.20
    		55.60
    E 9770.25
    		37.8(1998)+123.67%LVMH86.05
    		84.80
    		81.20
    		84.55
    Sfr.27513360(1999)+136.66%New Ventur160145.50138142
    E.64.9037.507.50(1997)+532.93%Nokia51.60
    		48.10
    		43.70
    		47.47
    SFR.1940017600SFr.16900** (2000)-7.50%Roche GS1505015715
    		1535015625
    SFr.456.33           218
    		46.66(1997)+556.87%SAP328
    		307
    		280
    		306.50
    E 9733.10
    		17.7(1999)+60.79%Sonera35.79
    		29.50
    		26.50
    		28.46
    SFr.850660460(1998)+137.82%Syn-Stratec1141
    		1129
    		1010
    		1094
    SFr1050661703(2000)+10.24%Think Tools 870
    		784
    		750
    		775
    E 18.3254
    		3.725(1999)+463.75%Zeltia22.50
    		22.50
    		20.40
    		21
     
    *We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
    to buy at different times.  Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
    since recommendation is a better reflection of  our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. *** no price updates this week!

    We decide to put Bookham into our recommended list, because it has developed some very
    interesting fiber optics products.  Although we normally dislike recommending companies
    that are not yet profitable.  But Bookham is such an outstanding company in a very
    promising field, we decide to venture into the stocks of this company.

    Go to Index



    Currencies and Bonds
    The Danes voted not to adopt the Euro.  But the currency markets barely noticed.
    The Euro is hovering around the .88-.89 cents level.  We expect the market
    to break out of this very narrow range, perhaps to re-test the resolve of the
    central banks.  If they intervene again, then we expect the Euro to recover above
    .90 level.

    Go to Index

    Future Trends

    Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
    telephones.  But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
    next couple of years.  So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
    and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere?  The problem seems to
    be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
    from the telecom companies.  People seem to think that the sky-high
    cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
    might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
    where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs.  Therefore
    the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated.  On the
    other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
    companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
    possible, because the licence fees are so high.  They will need the
    income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
    Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
    profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
    to the new standards.  The question will be how much and how soon and not
    if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

     
     
    *The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and  not intended  for trading purposes.  The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!