Investview

Index

Investment Views (October 23rd 2000)

Markets in General

We had a wonderful vacation while the markets tanked around the world. Indeed the markets
were even weaker than I thought they would be. The correction during the last two weeks have been
fast and furious. But the markets have started to recover by the middle of last week. We're uncertain,
whether the recovery is the reaction of an extremely oversold market (i.e. a dead cat bounce) or
whether the markets will recover decidedly. Only time will tell. The problem is: the US economy is
still strong, so that the Fed will probably stay on hold. No lower interest rates in sight yet. The strong
dollar is battering profits at the multi-nationals. Under this kind of scenerio one can still argue that the
US market is overvalued. However, the demographics and politics still favor the stock markets. The
boomers are building their nest eggs for retirement. The tax advantage of the IRA accounts, the talk
about doing away with the inheritance tax and capital gain tax will induce the people to hold on to
their stocks. In addition the liquidity that the Fed had pumped into the system because of the last
financail crisis as well as the weakness of the Japanese economy all favor US stocks. Therefore I'm
still convinced that we should see a rally by November.

Stocks

Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.

High of the Year	Low of the Year	Price and year of recommend.	Performance since recommend.	Stock	Last Week's Close	Daily high	Daily low	This Week's Close
8080	6968			SMI	8014.40	7983.70	7812.50	7975.50
E 48.30	12.40	26.75 (2000)	+36.82%	AT&S	41.10	37.30	36.20	36.60
SFr. 4000	2475	1351(1998)	+137.97%	Bachem	3369	3225	3200	3215
Gbp17.56	3.13	6.50(2000)	+5.6%	BaltimoreTech	7.42	6.87	6.10	6.87
E 420	207	260 (2000)	+13.84%	Biodata	333	303	294	296
Gbp54.73	16	30		Bookham Tech	34.95	34.95	28.60	31.65
Gbp 15.77	8.28	4.9(1998)	+87.75%	C&W	11	9.39	8.99	9.20
E 368.90	210.10	140(1998)	+43.21%	Cap Gemini	211.10	206	196	200.50
SFr.44.25	21.5	10(1998)	+199.20%	Ericsson	33	30.25	27.65	29.95
E.102.50	E.16	14 (1999)	+297.14%	Evotec	56	55.80	51.20	55.60
E 97	70.25	37.8(1998)	+123.67%	LVMH	86.05	84.80	81.20	84.55
Sfr.275	133	60(1999)	+136.66%	New Ventur	160	145.50	138	142
E.64.90	37.50	7.50(1997)	+532.93%	Nokia	51.60	48.10	43.70	47.47
SFR.19400	17600	SFr.16900** (2000)	-7.50%	Roche GS	15050	15715	15350	15625
SFr.456.33	218	46.66(1997)	+556.87%	SAP	328	307	280	306.50
E 97	33.10	17.7(1999)	+60.79%	Sonera	35.79	29.50	26.50	28.46
SFr.850	660	460(1998)	+137.82%	Syn-Stratec	1141	1129	1010	1094
SFr1050	661	703(2000)	+10.24%	Think Tools	870	784	750	775
E 18.325	4	3.725(1999)	+463.75%	Zeltia	22.50	22.50	20.40	21

*We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
to buy at different times. Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. *** no price updates this week!

We decide to put Bookham into our recommended list, because it has developed some very
interesting fiber optics products. Although we normally dislike recommending companies
that are not yet profitable. But Bookham is such an outstanding company in a very
promising field, we decide to venture into the stocks of this company.

Go to Index

Currencies and Bonds

The markets are testing the lower limits of the Euro again. The central
banks have not intervened yet. We expect the Euro to go even lower, if
the central banks stay inactive.

Go to Index

Future Trends

Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
telephones. But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
next couple of years. So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere? The problem seems to
be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
from the telecom companies. People seem to think that the sky-high
cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs. Therefore
the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated. On the
other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
possible, because the licence fees are so high. They will need the
income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
to the new standards. The question will be how much and how soon and not
if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

*The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and not intended for trading purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!