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Investment Views (October 30th 2000)

Markets in General

Last week we weren't sure whether the market recovery should be considered a
dead cat's bounce or a real recovery. This week we're still not quite sure. 11000
is the level to watch on the Dow. If the market can go over 11000 again, the
Dow just might re-test its old highs.

I don't think the Nasdaq correction is over yet. So we still expect a recovery
in November. At the moment the investors are very defensive. Sentiments
are certainly no longer wildly exuberant. It is probably time to tip toe back
into the market. The defensive stocks will outperform techs.

The European markets have stopped falling. We expect the European markets
to recover decisively. The European economy is certainly doing well. Signs of
overheating has diminished. We do not expect the European central bank
to raise the interest rates decisively unless it has to defend the Euro. But the weakness
in Euro is caused more by the buying spree of European companies in the US rather
than economic fundamentals. Therefore the effect of the interest rates rises have not
been overwhelmingly supportive for the euro. The central bank might as well as
remain on hold on the interest rates. Killing off the economic recovery in Europe
will certainly not help the economy in the long run.

Swiss stocks have been exhibiting quite a bit of strength. If Wall Street does not
tank next week, the SMI will remain strong. 8000 is the first level to watch.
We're convinced that the SMI will re-test its old highs.

Stocks

Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.

High of the Year	Low of the Year	Price and year of recommend.	Performance since recommend.	Stock	Last Week's Close	Daily high	Daily low	This Week's Close
8080	6968			SMI	8014.40	7983.70	7812.50	7975.50
E 48.30	12.40	26.75 (2000)	+36.82%	AT&S	41.10	37.30	36.20	36.60
SFr. 4000	2475	1351(1998)	+137.97%	Bachem	3369	3225	3200	3215
Gbp17.56	3.13	6.50(2000)	+5.6%	BaltimoreTech	7.42	6.87	6.10	6.87
E 420	207	260 (2000)	+13.84%	Biodata	333	303	294	296
Gbp54.73	16	30		Bookham Tech	34.95	34.95	28.60	31.65
Gbp 15.77	8.28	4.9(1998)	+87.75%	C&W	11	9.39	8.99	9.20
E 368.90	210.10	140(1998)	+43.21%	Cap Gemini	211.10	206	196	200.50
SFr.44.25	21.5	10(1998)	+199.20%	Ericsson	33	30.25	27.65	29.95
E.102.50	E.16	14 (1999)	+297.14%	Evotec	56	55.80	51.20	55.60
E 97	70.25	37.8(1998)	+123.67%	LVMH	86.05	84.80	81.20	84.55
Sfr.275	133	60(1999)	+136.66%	New Ventur	160	145.50	138	142
E.64.90	37.50	7.50(1997)	+532.93%	Nokia	51.60	48.10	43.70	47.47
SFR.19400	17600	SFr.16900** (2000)	-7.50%	Roche GS	15050	15715	15350	15625
SFr.456.33	218	46.66(1997)	+556.87%	SAP	328	307	280	306.50
E 97	33.10	17.7(1999)	+60.79%	Sonera	35.79	29.50	26.50	28.46
SFr.850	660	460(1998)	+137.82%	Syn-Stratec	1141	1129	1010	1094
E 18.325	4	3.725(1999)	+463.75%	Zeltia	22.50	22.50	20.40	21

*We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
to buy at different times. Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff. *** no price updates this week!

The fiber optic stocks are correcting with a vengence. We have no idea, when this
correction will be over. But we would increase the Bookham position.

We're removing Think Tools from our recommended list. We share the concern
of Wall Street Jounal. Think Tools have to increase its revenue to remain viable.

Go to Index

Currencies and Bonds

The markets are testing the lower limits of the Euro again. The central
banks have not intervened yet. We expect the Euro to go even lower, if
the central banks stay inactive. .80 ist the next level to watch.

Go to Index

Future Trends

Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
telephones. But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
next couple of years. So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere? The problem seems to
be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
from the telecom companies. People seem to think that the sky-high
cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs. Therefore
the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated. On the
other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
possible, because the licence fees are so high. They will need the
income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
to the new standards. The question will be how much and how soon and not
if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

*The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and not intended for trading purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!