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Investment Views (November 6th 2000)

Markets in General

Last week we advised our reader to tip toe back into the tech market. Indeed the
Nasdaq made an impressive recovery. We also wrote that the 11000 is the level
to watch on the Dow. And the Dow had problems moving above the 11000 level.
Despite of those problems, we're cautiously optimistic. The market is pausing a
bit because of the presidential elections next week. Once that is out of the way,
we should see the market recovering further. In general we must
keep in mind that the US economy is still doing well. The cooling effects of
the gentle interest rates rises seems to be quite gentle as well. Also most of the
third quarter results have been announced. Fund managers have done their
portfolio adjustments. We therefore expect them to rebuild their positions.
Therefore the case is rather strong for a stronger market.

As we had expected the European markets have recovered strongly last
week. The only exception is London. London tends to follow the Dow.
Since the Dow didn't perform that well last week. London did worse.
Also the strength of the pound is squeezing the profits of the English companies.
It is therefore no surprise that the German and French markets fared better.
However, we're surprised that the German and French markets are not
even stronger, since the lower Euro will certainly boost the European
international companies' profits and sales.

The Swiss Market Index took a little pause after moving up strongly last week.
We expect the market to do some more backing and filling next week. SMI
needs to close decisively above 8100 for the next big move on the upside.

Stocks

Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless.

High of the Year	Low of the Year	Price and year of recommend.	Performance since recommend.	Stock	Last Week's Close	Daily high	Daily low	This Week's Close
8080	6968			SMI	7975.50	8092.20	8048.30	8062.10
E 48.30	12.40	26.75 (2000)	+21.49%	AT&S	36.60	33	31.75	32.50
SFr. 4000	2475	1351(1998)	+121.02%	Bachem	3215	3015	2930	2986
E 420	207	260 (2000)		Biodata	296	262.50	254.89	258.10
Gbp 15.77	8.28	4.9(1998)	+75.31%	C&W	9.20	9.11	8.44	8.59
E 368.90	210.10	140(1998)	+30.78%	Cap Gemini	200.50	190.50	180.90	183.10
SFr.44.25	21.5	10(1998)	+149%	Ericsson	29.95	25.35	24.70	24.90
E.102.50	E.16	14 (1999)	+167.14%	Evotec	55.60	40	36.11	37.40
E.104.60	70.10	98.50		Fresenius Medical		98.86	96.03	98.50
E 97	70.25	37.8(1998)	+128.83%	LVMH	84.55	87	85.50	86.50
Sfr.275	133	60(1999)	+123.33%	New Ventur	142	135	132	134
E.64.90	37.50	7.50(1997)	+577.20%	Nokia	47.47	50.80	49.81	50.79
SFR.19400	17600	SFr.16900** (2000)	-1%	Roche GS	15625	16780	16670	16720
SFr.456.33	218	46.66(1997)	+524.73%	SAP	306.50	296	290	291.50
E 97	33.10	17.7(1999)	+38.41%	Sonera	28.46	26	24.30	24.50
SFr.850	660	460(1998)	+158.48%	Syn-Stratec	1094	1190	1162	1189
E 18.325	4	3.725(1999)	+495.97%	Zeltia	21	23	22.20	22.20

*We decided to calculate the performance since recommendation, because we have recommended the different stocks
to buy at different times. Since we're convinced that one should be long term investors, we think the performance
since recommendation is a better reflection of our goals. **adjusted for Givaudan spinoff.

We decide to remove Baltimore Tech and Bookham Technologies from our recommended list.
However good these company are, they prove too volatile for our taste. We decide to take the loss
and get out before we start losing sleep over these recommendations. We realized about 20%
loss on each position.

Instead we decided to put Fresenius Medical Care into our list. Fresenius is the largest
dialysis equipment provider in the world. Its' revenue has increased over 30 % per year
last few years. It's not a cheap stock. But we decide that quality has its price.

Go to Index

Currencies and Bonds

The European Central Bank intervened on Friday, even though the Euro had recovered
from its low around .8225. The Euro jumped above .87 level briefly, before falling
back to .86 level. Until the Euro goes above the .90 level, we do not see a turn around
for the Euro yet.

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Future Trends

Investors seem to be cooling towards the idea of the 3rd generation wireless
telephones. But it is a technology that is coming to the market within the
next couple of years. So why are the stocks of Qualcomm down so much
and that of Ericsson and Nokia are going nowhere? The problem seems to
be the high 3rd generation licence fees that countries in Europe are demanding
from the telecom companies. People seem to think that the sky-high
cost could delay the implementation and that telecom companies
might be tempted to only build the 3rd generation systems in areas
where the telephone charges will be able to cover costs. Therefore
the capacities build might be much smaller than anticipated. On the
other hand people should take into consideration that the telecom
companies might be very anxious to get their systems going as soon as
possible, because the licence fees are so high. They will need the
income stream generated by the new systems as soon as possible.
Plus companies like Qualcomm and Ericcson will only stand to
profit from the building and converting the present telephony system
to the new standards. The question will be how much and how soon and not
if at all. We recommend buying these stocks on weakness.

*The stock prices are provided for informational purposes only and not intended for trading purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are: opinions!