Index
Market in General
Stocks
Currencies
Last Week's Views
| Investment Views (November
30th 1998) |
Instead of writing my clients
individually I thought I might as well
do a weekly summary of my views
on the markets, the currencies,
the economy, the world, and
life in general.
Markets in General
As we have foreseen, the markets continued to rally. The Dow
rose above the high made
in July but did not manage to crack the 9400 level. The
correction is however quite
gentle in comparison to what we have experienced from August until
early October.
We will probably continue in this gentle correcting mode for a few
more days before
we test 9400 level again. We will probably see new highs on the
Dow. But we're
not certain whether we will test the 10000 level as some of the ardent
bulls are
busily predicting again. The levels to watch are: 9000 on the
downside and 9400 on the upside.
In Switzerland we also had a very friendly market on Monday. The
SMI hit 7480
level briefly before retreating to the 7050 level. The markets
then recovered towards
the weekend. As long as New York holds up, the Swiss market will
also be relatively
strong. Unless the markets break the 7000 level we should
trade between 7000 and
7400 level. We also need to close above 7400 level, in order
for the market to
make further advances. On the downside a break below 7000 will signal that a more
serious correction is under way.
The German markets have shown greater relative strength last week.
We expect
the Dax to remain strong until the end of this year.
Go to Index
Stocks
Our favorite stocks remains SAP, Nokia, Raisio
Group, Ericcson, Cable and Wireless, Orange
and Bachem.
| High of the Year |
Low of the Year |
Stock |
Last Week's
Close |
Daily high |
Daily low |
This Week's Close |
| 8489 |
5108.30 |
SMI |
7138 |
7254.9 |
7142.30 |
7216.40 |
| SFr. 1495 |
1351 |
Bachem |
1788 |
1810 |
1800 |
1810 |
| Gbp 8.13 |
4.67 |
C&W |
7.24 |
7.99 |
7.40 |
7.83 |
| SFr. 51 |
25 |
Ericsson |
35.40 |
40.40 |
38.50 |
40.25 |
| FIM 509 |
182 |
Nokia |
496.50 |
525 |
513 |
521.5 |
| Gbp 8 |
2.40 |
Orange |
6.03 |
6.21 |
5.96 |
6.08 |
| FIM 1080 |
640 |
Raisio Group |
55.50 |
66.50 |
61.10 |
65.50 |
| SFr. 1029 |
419 |
SAP |
620 |
670 |
649 |
668 |
| SFr. 2350 |
1820 |
Stratec |
1800 |
1830 |
1761 |
1800 |
| SFr110 |
65 |
Veba |
76.50 |
80.50 |
76 |
80.50 |
|
We recommend adding Veba to our favorite stocks list. Veba is one
of the largest industrial
combines in Germany. It's stock has suffered greatly after the
company reported disappointing
earnings last two quarters which were caused by the high start-up costs
for its mobile telephone
company e-plus. The company has come a long way from a huge lackluster
conglomerate to
a slimmed down shareholders' value oriented company. The goal
of the board is to create a
German version of GE. The company's five areas of businesses
are:
-electric utility
-chemicals
-telecommunication (mobile telephony
and cable TV)
-oil and natural gas production
-noncore trading, trasportation and
services business
Last year the total sales is US$46billion. What makes this company
interesting is the analysts' view that
the electricity division is alone worth about its stock price now.
You get the rest of the businesses
for free. We would therefore like to have it in our long term
portfolios.
Go to Index
Currencies
The dollar has closed above the important SFr.1.40 level. We
see further strength, if
the stock markets remain strong. The dollar strength is not necessarily
good for the
Asian and Latin American economies. We can only hope for a cut
in the European
interest rates to strengthen the European economies and thereby helping
the
Asian and Latin American economies recover a bit.
Go to Index
| *The stock prices are provided
for informational puruposes only and not intended for trading
purposes. The opinions expressed in these pages are what they are:
opinions! |
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